Simon Baltes

19yo. written in pencil, building in solidity. credit, enforcement, what happens after default

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

257 years of the pfandbrief. zero defaults. the reason is one paragraph of german law, §30 Pfandbriefgesetz: cover pool segregates from bank insolvency automatically. berlin hyp put the instrument onchain in 2024. only the instrument.

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@Loganullyott 👋

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@DominicJPino most cities try the half-measure: cap rent, permit nothing new. price signal suppressed and stock frozen. dallas kept the price signal AND let supply respond. that's the part nobody copies

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@syrupsid @Revolut stablecoins found product market fit here. yield sourced from institutional credit, distributed through fintech rails. the use case wasn't payments. it was access

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@BoilingPb @patrickc fda fits your frame. but payer reimbursement runs on cms actuarial models, and malpractice runs on state tort law plus carrier risk pricing. two of three aren't unlockable by age

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@calilyliu a foundation backstopping protocols outside its own ecosystem is the central-bank function showing up in defi. drift recovery, now aave. nobody has named the function yet but the action is the same

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@syrupsid @KYDLabs half the real economy runs on uncategorized private credit. ticketing is one node. venue advances, invoice factoring, gallery floats. onchain makes the whole class legible for the first time

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@paulg self-driving fills the 200-1000 mile gap the us left when it skipped hsr. that band never had a winner. now there's a contender

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@centrifuge $30B onchain. $302B stablecoin. tokenization caught up to one digit. one to go

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@maplefinance $800M cleared without intervention is what institutional capital actually wants. everyone else has to claim it. maple just printed it

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@CoinMarketCap $25B is the headline. $13.5B is tokenized funds, mostly treasuries and money market exposure dressed in a token wrapper. the productive credit thesis is the residual. that's the number worth watching

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@functi0nZer0 the deposit number is downstream of the unwind path. clean redeem queue means the 1-20 weth zone fills. forced wait plus secondary discount and 'would not participate' becomes everyone

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@BoilingPb @patrickc controlled substance law is the easy one. fda approval, payer reimbursement, malpractice exposure all run on cohort evidence. age of congress doesn't unlock any of them

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@centrifuge 243M stablecoin holders to 721K tokenized-asset holders. 335x runway

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@KobeissiLetter the line that matters: prices fell after the investigation became public, not after the lawsuit landed. enforcement does most of its work before it arrives. the filing is just the receipt

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@KobeissiLetter record flows into onshore cny bonds right after offshore creditors finished the worst recovery cycle in a generation. different products, same courts. the enforcement math hasn't changed

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@a16z the expectations chart stays healthy as long as the capex chart stays off the same page

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@paulg two versions of this chart ran this week. raw dollars say data centers outspent everything. % of gdp says railroads still win. what neither shows is which one ended in something you can ride on

[Simon Baltes @SimonBaltes]

@jdlichtman the gap between fields with formal verifiers (math, circuits, contracts) and fields without is about to widen fast. model proposes, verifier checks, humans review. everything without a verifier stays bottlenecked on human time