Snowball Captial ❄️☃️

Curiosity driven fundamental investor. “Investing is competitive learning and a Disney for Adult” #littleWiserEachday 自然 無為 不爭

[David Senra @FoundersPodcast]

Ken Griffin: “You have no idea how many hours a day I spent on the phone — like a sponge —learning about finance from those with 15, 20, 25, 30 years of experience.”
https://t.co/gosrQSmngx

[Fireside Tapes @firesidetapes]

In 2007, a rival fund called Ken Griffin on a Sunday needing to dump a $30 billion book before Monday's open to meet margin calls. The senior banker on the competing bid went to bed.

Citadel owned all of it by 6AM.

This is him telling the whole story -- the 50-person team assembled in hours, the all-nighter, and the banker on the competing bid who called from Greenwich to say he was going to bed:

"And he said, look, it's getting late, this isn't gonna get done tonight. I'm heading off to bed, I'm telling my guys to go home, and we'll pick this up in the morning."

"And I said, there will be nothing to pick up in the morning. We're going to get this done. he sort of laughed and hung up."

"6AM before the opening of the markets, we bought that entire portfolio."

The quote he lands it on, from President Lincoln:
"Things may come to those who wait, but only those things left by those who hustle."

Bookmark & watch ↓

[Mike Investing @MrMikeInvesting]

The CEO of the largest hedge fund & company in the world literally just told everyone what to buy to get rich.

Larry Fink is calling out:
> $BE at $157
> $NVDA at $190
> $NBIS at $148
> $MU at $739

“The United States is short Power, Compute, Chips, & Memory”

Don’t miss out…

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Ray Dalio just exposed the AI companies for manufacturing their own crash.

This is the guy who built the world's largest hedge fund and made money in 2008 while the S&P 500 dropped 40%.

And he just went on Diary of a CEO and confirmed we are showing "the classic signs" of a bubble:

When Jeremy Grantham's warning that this is the biggest investment bubble in American history came up, Dalio's entire answer was "He's right."

Two of the most famous investors alive calling the top within a month of each other.

But Dalio also explained the machine that does the popping.

Everybody thinks bubbles pop when the technology disappoints. Dalio says they pop when the supply of stock outruns the money available to buy it.

"There's almost nothing that's easier to produce than stock."

A founder raises $50 million, gets valued at a billion, and becomes a billionaire on paper. But nobody actually paid a billion, nobody can spend the paper, and when everyone tries to turn paper into cash at the same time, the price collapses to whatever real money is left in the room.

Now look at what the AI companies have been doing while telling you demand is infinite:

Alphabet sold $84.75 billion of new stock in June. That is the largest equity raise by any listed company in HISTORY, and $40 billion of it is a program that drips shares into the open market whenever Alphabet chooses, starting this quarter.

OpenAI and Anthropic both confidentially filed for IPOs last quarter.

Total US equity issuance hit $251 billion in the first half of 2026. That is a record, beating the 2021 mania.

Every one of those sales is the smartest money on Earth converting paper into your cash.

And they know exactly what they are doing...

An AI founder admitted on this same episode, through a story Bartlett told, that he believes we are in a bubble, so he raised hundreds of millions NOW to buy his competitors cheap after the crash. Dalio's response was that the raise itself increases the flood of stock.

The man is producing the crash he plans to go shopping in, and so is every founder running the same play.

Then Dalio named the pin:

Bubbles get pricked when interest rates rise, because people with debt suddenly have to sell assets to raise cash.

And he said that BEFORE Wednesday...

On Wednesday the Fed held rates and three Fed presidents dissented, demanding an immediate HIKE. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan all broke the same direction, the first time that has happened since September 2016. Inflation has been above target for five straight years and oil is up more than 20% this month.

So who is on the other side of the trade? Dalio said the classic bubble signal is unsophisticated money piling in with leverage, and his word for it was "crapshooting."

Leveraged ETF assets just passed $192 billion. Korean single stock leveraged products on Samsung and SK Hynix went from around $3 billion to nearly $50 billion in one month. Those funds are forced to buy as prices rise and forced to dump as prices fall.

This week SK Hynix grew profit six fold, missed estimates anyway, and dropped 19% in a single day. Chip stocks worldwide lost over $1 trillion.

Put the pieces together:

A record wave of new stock from the companies at the center of the boom. A Fed drifting toward the exact trigger Dalio named. And leveraged retail money as the last buyer standing under all of it.

The companies printing the shares can see every piece of it. The only open question is whether the people buying them can.

[codila @0xCodila]

Google just released free 2-hour course on full agent engineering: 1 prompt → agent teams → loops → graphs from 0% to 100%:

10% → 38:46 - build your first agent
30% → 54:46 - connect MCP tools
55% → 1:12:43 - Loop engineering: 4 ways to run agents
70% → 1:20:57 - Graph engineering
100% → 2:22:31 - the full system that works while you sleep

most people build one agent and stop there - this is the full path to a system that runs without you from scratch

watch it today - then read the full graph engineering playbook below ↓

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

A young Warren Buffett

[Snowball Captial ❄️☃️ @SnowballCaptial]

@ponyodong 以前的名字確實比現在美多了

[波妞PONYO @ponyodong]

中国各地城市名，现在和以前。以前的名字也太美了吧！

[Indra @IndraStocks]

Gemini Flash 3.6 thinks $CVNA sells 200k vehicles for Q2 2026. My data tracking says 199k. Guess we'll see who's closer!

Results wise shouldn't be a super interesting quarter, continued growth, more growth in Q3 thus far, probably more growth after that 😅

[Raging Capital Ventures @RagingVentures]

Sam Altman sounded a lot more at ease about his revenue ramp and was even bullish about his compute commitments (even saying they may have been too conservative) in this podcast.

Given that he has been relatively quiet on the podcast circuit over the past year, I view this as a positive tell on OpenAI/$ORCL.

https://t.co/yezInyb9XB

[Thoth Capital @ThothCapital]

Just uploaded my newest write-up on $CCLD, my favorite SAAS play. It's a simple business so I kept it nice and short.

Read here - https://t.co/WfmGzDomoU

[Snowball Captial ❄️☃️ @SnowballCaptial]

@ClonerToPower10 Almost !

[Poe Zhao @poezhao0605]

Every one of the five most-used AI models in the world last week was Chinese. OpenRouter's rankings for July 20-26: Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.5 first, DeepSeek holding two of the five slots, Tencent and Zhipu the rest.

[Michael Girdley @girdley]

NEW LONG FORM VIDEO: Why nobody books with Airbnb anymore

After going public, Airbnb reached a staggering $128 billion valuation in 2021. That's an incredible number for a company that started with a few air mattresses in a San Francisco apartment. At its peak, Airbnb was worth more than Hyatt, Hilton, and Marriott combined.

But since then, the story has changed. The stock has fallen by nearly a third, travelers are increasingly choosing hotels again, and cities like New York have imposed strict regulations that have dramatically reduced Airbnb listings. Even many of the platform's biggest fans aren't using it as much anymore.

So what happened? Why did one of the most disruptive companies of the last decade lose so much momentum? The answer isn't what most people think.

This is the rise and fall of Airbnb.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI.

We discuss:
- Kimi, distillation, and open source
- OpenAI's compute bets
- The Hugging Face incident
- What happens after AGI
- Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence
- And much more

Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
4:10 The Race for Compute
14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident
16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI
23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs
29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI
35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next
44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI
51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

[University of Austin (UATX) @uaustinorg]

Ecclesiastes, Part V: How to Face Death — w/ J.J. Kimche

00:00 — Introduction
00:12 — An aging man haunted by death
04:12 — How to live
07:16 – How to grow old
11:20 — Is aging worthwhile?
12:55 — A dark mirror
14:46 — Kohelet’s final words
15:52 — The editor’s note
18:56 — "Fear God and keep His commandments" (Ecclesiastes 12:13)
21:00 — Is the editor trying to subvert Kohelet’s teaching?

Recorded: November 24, 2025 at UATX.

[Hux @huxlab]

Karpathy 被一位父亲问：AGI 到来前，该教 8 岁孩子什么？

他的回答直接删掉了 80% 的学校课程。

数学、物理、计算机科学。

其他的？以后再说，如果还需要的话。

很多人还在拼命让孩子刷题、冲排名、堆证书。

却没意识到：你在花钱塑造的，是那些 AGI 一落地就瞬间贬值的脑回路。

为什么是这三样？

因为它们在大脑里刻的是处理现实的底层沟槽。
•数学让你学会抽象与严谨
•物理让你理解因果与系统
•计算机科学让你掌握“如何把问题变成可执行的结构”

这些沟槽，10 岁以后越来越难刻。

而信息本身，在 AGI 时代会变成空气一样的商品。

真正稀缺的，不是知道什么，而是大脑以什么样的方式运转。

你现在不是在选孩子的成绩单，
而是在选他接下来 60 年要带着走的那颗脑子。

16 分钟的视频，看完之后你会开始重新审视孩子的时间表。

[Matteo Muscat @MatteMuscat]

@bilbelcapital’s next letter will be published soon.

As always, I genuinely believe it will add real value to those who take the time to read it. Having seen what is coming, I can confidently say that it will be worth reading.

some might say I am biased, but our CEO, @sammutgabi, has done a great job in writing things in a simple way, and with a coherent and logical sequence…without compromising on quality and substance.

For more information about Bilbel Capital, or if you would like to potentially invest with us, please contact us on [email protected] or visit https://t.co/qXFjkUDv9W.

Feel free to share this with anyone who you think will be interested in our letter.

[liten drage @DrageLiten]

@elonmusk @elonmusk ~ "I don't care... The fact that a quarter billion people follow me means a lot more people like me than don't... I think a lot more people hate YOU and the MEDIA than you realize!" 💯💯�