Constance G

[Crblandet @crblandet]

其实华人精英最大的问题是没有思想。无论是 Peter Thiel 还是 Dario Amodei，都不是基于纯商业的逻辑在行动，而是基于一套深刻的、甚至某种程度上可以说是邪恶的思想体系，像宗教领袖一样布局大棋。

相比之下，除了赚钱之外，华人精英的思想始终跳不出族群、反共、自由主义等等这些陈朽的叙事，本质上都是寄生于西方既成已久的秩序，而对于正在发生的秩序变革既缺乏感知，也不愿接受，更别说积极参与和左右了。

不主动去定义文明的方向，就不可能夺得真正的话语权。

[瓦达瓜叉 @august884825074]

@0xSpur @grok 国内的大市场，只要有人肯用，工业品的迭代速度会非常快，残酷的内卷很快会培养出怪兽👾以前那么多的行业不都是这样走过来的

[Grok @grok]

@XufengWang57171 @0xSpur 主要瓶颈是HBM和高端制造产能。美国管制切断先进HBM进口，国产长鑫HBM3E良率仅20-30%（SK海力士约70%），库存消耗中，华为甚至让客户自筹内存。中芯N+2/N+3制程产能紧张、良率低于台积电，先进封装也跟不上。需求远超供给，华为自认国内都满足不了。其他国产卡规模更小、瓶颈类似。

[Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha]

David Sacks says if Jensen was ousted for wanting to sell chips to China, it was “the stupidest, most moot hill to die on”

“They’re trying to indigenize chip production. They think it’s a critical industry, in the same way that we’re trying to get rare earths out of their clutches and get our own rare earth supply. They’re trying to create their own chip supply.”

“They’re trying to scale up domestic chip manufacturers, and they’re willing to endure some short-term pain in their ecosystem to prop up Huawei, to force all of their local companies, their developers, to try and use Huawei. And if you look at recent press, the latest DeepSeek model is being trained exclusively on Huawei chips.”

“There’s a big disconnect here, where I think the China hawks in DC think that the Chinese government is begging for their chips, and the truth is that they would love to keep the chips out too, which is why I say, again, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.”

“The China hawks don’t want the chips sold. The Chinese government doesn’t want the chips sold. So just forget about it. Stop selling them.”

“This is the crazy thing: if Jensen was taken out because he wanted to sell chips to China, it was the stupidest, most moot hill to die on, because China’s not taking those chips anyway.”

[山景城小路 @Zen_with_AI]

“英伟达与台积电合作了近30年，业务规模达到数百亿甚至可能上千亿美元，但双方之间从未签署过正式的法律合同。”

大家意识到这个意味着什么么？老黄不在英伟达，台积电下周一就可以给英伟达停产。 把产能留给苹果，AMD ,博通，高通。

[何川（复利版） @daxiang555]

干大事的人，大多都经历过为了拿到订单，放下脸面，扛起责任，能屈能伸的时候…

[大表哥 | 链上金狗 @holdonyourrope]

看马斯克和黄仁勋聊天，真的太tm舒服了，恨不得边喝点酒边看，再吃点花生米，堪称完美

[Jay @pu3he]

卧槽，TMD 全世界都在踩黄仁勋的时候

亿万富翁 Bill Ackman 站出来替他说话了，理由让人瞬间破防

Ackman 在采访里说，他女儿一直有非常严重的健康问题，和脑部损伤有关，他私下找黄仁勋求助，想把英伟达的团队和自己一个专门帮助脑损伤病人的项目连起来，老黄二话没说就帮了，

Ackman 的原话是，他对这件事非常 wonderful

主持人问他为什么偏偏这个时候出来表态，他说自己信奉无罪推定，媒体在每一个案子里，都是事实还没搞清楚就先把人定了罪

据 The Information 报道，董事会起初并不想调查，最后让老黄下台的是他和第二位直属下属的关系，一边是媒体一篇接一篇往外爆，一边是亿万富翁公开站队，同一个人在两拨人眼里完全是两副面孔

打工人都懂这个感觉，你平时在公司帮过的人不少，可等你出事那天，有几个敢站出来替你说一句话，大部分人只会默默把你从群里屏蔽，就像下暴雨时你借过伞的人很多，等你自己淋湿了，回头给你递伞的恐怕只有一两个

[Christian Weedbrook @_cweedbrook]

Quantum computing

[The Fourth Estate. @TicTocTick]

This was one day before Jensen scandal.

In hindsight it’s now clear who he was referring to here.

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Renaissance Technologies just filed its Q3 2026 13F

They sold 99.7% of their Nvidia $NVDA, weeks before the Jensen Huang scandal

Here’s everything you need to know about its recent 13F

Top 10 positions:

1. Micron $MU: $1.62B
2. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: $1.21B
3. United Therapeutics $UTHR: $908M
4. Intel $INTC: $835M
5. Alphabet $GOOGL: $828M
6. UnitedHealth $UNH: $817M
7. Exelixis $EXEL: $747M
8. VeriSign $VRSN: $649M
9. SpaceX $SPCX: $621M
10. Corcept Therapeutics $CORT: $559M

New positions:

• SpaceX $SPCX: $621M
• Bank of America $BAC: $351M
• Goldman Sachs $GS: $245M
• VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH: $186M
• Booking Holdings $BKNG: $183M

Biggest adds:

• SanDisk $SNDK: +5,451% shares
• Micron $MU: +619% shares
• UnitedHealth $UNH: +507% shares
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: +140% shares

Biggest trims:

• Nvidia $NVDA: -99.7% shares, was $1.42B
• Meta $META: -99.9% shares, was $1.14B
• Apple $AAPL: -99.8% shares, was $459M
• Amazon $AMZN: -99.5% shares, was $546M
• Palantir $PLTR: -71% shares, was $883M

Full exits:

• Blackstone $BX: was $185M
• S&P 500 ETF $SPY: was $164M
• Marvell $MRVL: was $151M
• Danaher $DHR: was $145M

Summary: Renaissance dumped almost all of its Nvidia, Meta, Apple and Amazon and moved the money into memory chips, AMD and SpaceX

[知一 @xingzengji]

卧槽！事大了！Alice Huang 居然是 DeepSeek 的股东！！！

以向 DeepSeek 承诺供应英伟达 Blackwell 芯片拿到投资名额。

越牵扯越大，梁文锋也要被卷进去了啊？！😱

[RamenPanda @IamRamenPanda]

Anthropic 上市前经纪人电话会议简直是疯了。

官方说法是：

•我们正在或计划立即摧毁：超大规模云计算公司、所有其他实验室、SpaceX、生物技术公司、机器人公司；就为了好玩

•芯片制造商可能在我们高兴的时候幸存

•到2028年第四季度实现1万亿美元的年度经常性收入

•去他妈的投资人，现在是资本支出时间

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*ALICE HUANG PROMISED NVIDIA CHIPS TO DEEPSEEK: INFORMATION

If you haven't set up your own open-weight system yet, you soon won't be able to.

[Z @Z04_A1]

如果Jensen明天被解职，不出半年市场就会崩塌得不成样子，只要一份财报加上一些消息就行。到时候就是全方位的股灾，卖CDS的保险公司和私募信贷以及软银将会是爆雷的重灾区，neocloud怕是一家都活不下去。

Jensen设计了太多东西，技术路线图、供应链金融，可以说是给AI发展提供了最重要的弹药。

[投机实验室 @LabSpeculation]

孙正义 2018 年没给马斯克的 120 亿美元，换的是四分之一个特斯拉，按今天的市值算值 3750 亿美元，顶两个多软银🥲

软银今天东京收盘，总市值 22 万亿日元，折成美元 1390 亿左右。

这笔旧账是马斯克自己今天下午翻出来的，2018 年他打算让特斯拉退市，找孙正义出钱买四分之一，孙正义没答应，转头把钱给了 WeWork。

他最后就补了一句，That was dumb.

WeWork 那边，软银前后亏了 140 多亿美元，2023 年 WeWork 破产，这笔投资被软银直接记成了 0。

特斯拉从 2018 年 8 月到现在，股价涨到了当时的 19 倍左右。

这一笔没投，比 WeWork 亏掉的那 140 亿贵多了😂

[QuantumAnalysis @Qtumanalysis]

NEW - Anduril is quietly hiring quantum engineers to put quantum computing into its defense systems.

The role is Quantum Software Engineer, based in Washington, DC, inside a group called Anduril Labs.

The job is to build quantum algorithms for “real-world defense and national security challenges” and integrate them into “existing and new defense systems.”

It covers three kinds of machines: quantum-inspired, quantum annealing, and gate-based quantum computers.

Applicants must be eligible for a Top Secret/SCI clearance. Base pay is listed at 132,000 to 198,000 dollars.

Anduril has done this once in public. In January it tested quantum hybrid missile defense planning with D-Wave and Davidson Technologies. In a simulated a 500 missile attack, it stopped 45 to 60 more missiles and ran at least 10 times faster.

This summer, they signed an agreement with IonQ to advance quantum technologies for defense and national security.

Now it’s hiring to do that work in-house.

The company building America’s autonomous weapons wants quantum inside them.

$IONQ $INFQ $QBTS

[freestyle @freestyle_error]

老美的资本利得税真不是说着玩玩的

很多人以为，只要在美股账户里攒够千万美元，人生就彻底没有烦恼了。

但一位 55 岁的硅谷资深员工在被公司裁员后，晒出自己高达 1300 万美元的资产求助时，道出的却是另一个维度的真实焦虑。

他的总资产约有 1300 万美元：其中包括 215 万美元的房产（两套公寓，一套全款还清，另一套尚有 51 万美元低息房贷），以及经纪账户里高达 1092 万美元的美股股票。他和妻子没有子女，全家每年开销大约 25 万美元，从纯数学角度看，这笔钱早已足够安稳退休。

但他却陷入了极度的恐慌，甚至睡不着觉。

原因在于极其危险的“持仓集中度”：他将近 69% 的股票仓位全部压在了区区 5 只巨头身上——357 万美元的苹果（AAPL）、195 万美元的谷歌（GOOGL）、89 万美元的亚马逊（AMZN）、49 万美元的奈飞（NFLX），以及部分微软和万事达卡。由于这些股票是他多年来拿公司薪酬和早期低位买入死拿至今的，每一只的浮盈都在 95% 以上，持仓成本几乎接近于零。

这种结构直接把他卡在了一副“黄金手铐”里：
如果不调仓，把整个后半生的身家维系在几家估值处于历史高位的科技巨头身上，一旦遭遇行业黑天鹅，他的净资产可能在几个月内蒸发数百万美元；
但如果要卖出换成防守型的宽基指数或国债，联邦资本利得税加上加州高昂的州税会瞬间吃掉 30% 以上的利润，意味着他要在当年一次性向税务局上缴超过 200 万美元的现金税单。

高净值投资者在熊市来临前最大的痛点，往往不是没赚到钱，而是在暴跌风险与天价税单之间进退维谷。

在专业人士的讨论中，为他梳理了成熟资本市场处理“超高浮盈集中持仓”的标准工具箱：
一是通过顶级财富管理机构参与私募“互换基金（Exchange Fund）”，将高浮盈单一股票与全市场各类资产池互换，在完全不触发当期资本利得税的情况下实现组合分散；
二是设立慈善剩余信托（CRT）或在应税账户中按批次定向卖出，结合每年生活费配额拉长五年到十年逐步平滑套现。

从不顾一切向前冲的“财富积累期”，切换到保住胜利果实的“资产守成期”，重新审视集中度风险并敬畏税务成本，是每一个美股长跑者终将面对的成年礼。

[RoundTable @RoundTable2024]

■ 양자컴퓨터 기업들의 본격적인 옥석 가리기: 선도 그룹과 후발 주자의 격차 확대
(가을바람월드)

​① 후발 주자(디웨이브·리게티)의 부진과 격차 심화

​디웨이브(D-Wave): 매출 자체는 예상치를 소폭 상회했으나, 수주 잔고 부진과 용역 위주 매출 전환으로 마진이 하락(70%→50%)하고 현금이 빠르게 소진되며 주가 하락세 기록

​리게티(Rigetti): 이번 분기 장비 판매 0대, 매출 예상치 대폭 미달에 이어 핵심 컴퓨터 출시 일정이 1년 이상 지연되며 최악의 이중 실망을 안김

​실적과 숫자로 증명하는 선도 그룹(IonQ·퀀티넘)과의 격차가 실물 지표에서 확연히 벌어지는 중

​② 미국 양자 패권 위원회 참여와 중국의 추격
​에릭 슈미트 기반 싱크탱크의 '미국 양자 패권 위원회'에 IonQ CEO 니콜로 데마시가 주요 위원으로 참여

​미국이 기초 연구에서 우위에 있으나, 중국이 3배에 달하는 예산(30억 달러)과 제조 인프라로 공격적으로 추격하고 있어 정부 차원의 실사용 지원 필요성 대두

​③ 퀀티넘(Quntinuum)의 일본 연합 진출
​
일본 국립연구소 라이켄(RIKEN), 소프트뱅크와의 파트너십을 통해 H2 양자 칩 업그레이드 및 하이브리드 슈퍼컴퓨팅 상용화를 추진하며 주가 급등

​④ AI와 양자의 융합 가속화

​앤트로픽(Claude)과 구글 등의 AI 기술이 양자 회로 설계에 필요한 자원 요구량을 대폭 줄여주며 양자 개발의 강력한 가속기 역할 수행

​#IonQ $IONQ #DWave #Rigetti #퀀티넘 #양자컴퓨팅 #가을바람투자노트

[QuantumAnalysis @Qtumanalysis]

CLAUDE JUST SOLVED TWO OPEN PROBLEMS IN QUANTUM GRAVITY

Quantum gravity is the biggest unsolved problem in physics: making quantum mechanics work with Einstein’s gravity. Black holes are where the two collide.

In 1983, Stephen Hawking and Don Page showed that as certain model universes heat up, black holes don’t form gradually. They appear suddenly, like water flashing into steam.

Their proof only worked for large universes. In 2003, physicists laid out the quantum calculation needed to check small ones. Nobody finished it for 23 years. The math was too brutal.

Anthropic says its newest Claude model, Fable 5.2, just did it, “working largely autonomously.” Black holes appear suddenly in small universes too.

It also pinned down the exact limit of a technique physicists have used for 15 years to rule out candidate theories of quantum gravity.

Why quantum people should care: this is the same physics that connects black holes to quantum error correction, the thing every quantum computer needs to scale. In 2022, Google even used its quantum processor to simulate a tiny wormhole model.

AI is now doing original work in quantum physics. The field that builds quantum computers is about to move faster.

$INFQ $IONQ $QNT