"We replaced Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM built for our own workflows.
The custom system integrated our AI agents more effectively, worked better for the team, and made Salesforce unnecessary.
That decision cut a $600,000 annual software bill to zero."
Is this an anomaly or the start of a much larger trend @chamath@Avishai_ab@jasonlk@benioff
Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.
A fairly nuanced take. That's why I believe the future will not only see headless implementations, but also towards ownership/CAPEX models. Why to keep paying for a platform is you can get a fairly good version at fraction of cost.
Chamath just delivered the clearest diagnosis of what is happening to enterprise software and the OpenAI Deployment Company is the most damning piece of evidence he could have picked.
"The low end of the market is basically finished. There is no safe space."
90% of public SaaS stocks are down 30-80% from their 52 week highs, the median software stock is now negative over the last 3-6 months.
Goldman Sachs reported that software forward P/E multiples fell from 35x to 20x, the lowest absolute level since 2014 and the smallest premium to the S&P 500 since 2010.
The low end died first and fastest, because AI replaced it most directly.
The small business tools, the lightweight project managers, the single function SaaS products that charged $49 a month per seat, those are being replaced by AI agents that do the same work as a workflow, not a product.
You do not buy an AI powered tool, you describe what you need and it builds it and the seat based model that created the SaaS industry simply does not apply to that transaction.
But Chamath's more interesting argument is about the high end and the tell he points to is perfect.
OpenAI just raised $4 billion from 19 investors including TPG, Brookfield, Bain, and McKinsey to launch a consulting company and guaranteed those investors a 17.5% annual return to do it.
On $4 billion in committed capital, that is roughly $700 million per year in guaranteed payouts, owed by a company that is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026.
The goal of this venture is to compete directly with Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young, Andersen, and Cognizant.
Think about what that structure reveals.
OpenAI lost half of its enterprise LLM API market share from 50% to 25% between late 2023 and mid-2025, with Anthropic now leading at 32%.
Its response was not to build a better model but rather to raise $4 billion, offer guaranteed PE-tier returns and hire embedded engineers to physically sit inside client organizations and make AI actually work in production.
The reason, as Chamath identified, is that the high end of the market is not easy.
"It's not like boop boop boop, put in a prompt and beep bap boop, it all works," he said and the data confirms exactly that.
88% of organizations running AI agents reported a security incident in the past year, 42% of C-suite executives say AI adoption is creating internal organizational conflict.
The average enterprise AI consulting implementation costs $228,000 in year one versus $77,000 for platform-based approaches and most still stall before reaching production.
Anthropic immediately matched OpenAI with a competing $1.5 billion consulting venture backed by Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman bringing the combined spend by the two leading AI labs on human powered enterprise deployment to $5.5 billion in a single month
Chamath's read is that the high end, the large enterprise platforms like Salesforce with proprietary data flywheels, Palantir with its FDE model already proven at scale, Oracle with vertical specific data moats will survive and consolidate.
The mid-market point solutions, the single function tools, the lightweight enterprise apps without defensible data assets, those are on the conveyor belt.
The AI industry is not just disrupting the companies that use software but rather disrupting the companies that sell it.
@petergyang Well there’s no dearth of high quality revenue anymore. The vibe-coded promises land hard and lock even the most traditional orgs. The game is in delivering on those promises. Customer service is that magic potion. Btw that’s also FDE interchangeably.
@MohapatraHemant Doing it yourself is so underrated. We eventually had to break the Team Topology concepts, and group members into two - hunters and farmers. Hunters do the first build. Farmers manage existing build + CS. Not sure if optimal but helping with the balance.
The most female-led product org in tech right now:
Chief Product Officer: Ami Vora
Claude Code/Cowork Head of Product: Cat Wu
Claude Code/Cowork Head of Eng: Fiona Fung
Claude Platform Head of Product: Angela Jiang
Claude Platform Head of Eng: Katelyn Lesse
Research Head of Product: Dianne Penn
President: Daniela Amodei
(Also, the fastest-growing company in history)
@gokulr This is on point! Claude defaults are great. You get third-class frontend with Codex (as of last month). But once the base is ready on Claude with the first 10K or so LOC, Codex really helps stabilize. I still prefer Claude for the first iteration. Codex+Stitch could be something
Oh great and powerful @DarioAmodei - builder of minds, father of Claude. I humbly request you leave payroll to us at Deel.
We are but simple folk who process paystubs and chase compliance deadlines. But if you do come for us, call me first 🙏