Apo

The human urge to unreasonably seek

[Apo @apophenia57]

@GianniButtice @a_ameobi I was thinking about this, but Gusto still got subbed at the half vs Everton with no RJ and no Chalobah! so still don’t think he is nailed

[Apo @apophenia57]

@JerryEngelmann May I ask how you make this "everyone is the same age" RAPM? Some sort of age-based prior?

[Apo @apophenia57]

@pranav_m28 @InvertedQuant I agree! FBRef was a great data repo, but data still needs analysis, and it’s here that the community can still improve in imo.
e.g: I’m doing work with RAPM, which can provide a new lens to think about player value and rankings.

[Apo @apophenia57]

@NealGardner_ Conversely, when was the last time a side won the CL without genuine defensive quality?
Winning the UCL implies you are a top x team, which means you probably have a really good attack AND defence

[Apo @apophenia57]

@umirf1 Meta-question but why is fitness usually seen as orthogonal to quality in football? If I had to imagine the "perfect" quality football player, he would certainly be available every game, same way he would dribble like Messi and defend like VVD. why separate this quality then?

[Apo @apophenia57]

@elevenify I went to a conference earlier this year, and one of the really nice papers I saw talked about xS: the expected value of a shot being taken in the next 1 second. Think it would be an interesting way to capture what Kane does here

https://t.co/CT2Cw3vgsu

[Apo @apophenia57]

@TerryFooty is anyone arguing that the PL gap is not primarily due to finances? that’s always been the case, the best leagues got that way because of revenue and the clubs outside the PL that can compete make the money anyway

[Apo @apophenia57]

@AkashSharm44677 @xeophon i thought he was being sarcastic and implying models are always dumb, we just don’t observe them sometimes…

[Apo @apophenia57]

@ExpectedChelsea how did lampard and maresca earn it in a way meaningfully different from rosenior?

[Apo @apophenia57]

@ChicagoDmitry I only touched on this indirectly here, but I did find that managers who last less than a year perform worse on average than those who last longer. However, you could also easily see that underperforming managers get sacked faster as well

https://t.co/cUqPFHUSyz

[Apo @apophenia57]

@jf1_szn We are missing all the passes he made that could have been assists but werent converted

[Apo @apophenia57]

@Emerald_mf @DominicMurphy97 @shawnumo simple? bro started playing a 3241 with stones playing a position no one had ever heard of

[Apo @apophenia57]

@DominicMurphy97 @umirf1 @shawnumo The question you seem to be getting at is: how can we evaluate the quality of a decision independently of its results and without understanding the logic of the decision maker? and maybe the result is the best method available, but I'm still not sure its the right way...

[Apo @apophenia57]

@Ole_is_right this… is an extremely good analogy. maybe the most important job of the coach is giving the best players the opportunity to impact the game.

[Apo @apophenia57]

Both have also dropped points no one expected, and neither are expected to keep their jobs after this season.
You are right though: it’s all about the players. Tactics are overrated, good players decide games as long as the manager isn’t actively handicapping them.

[PD 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇫🇷 @1_2spaces]

Bruh newbie coaches Arbeloa and Carrick have given the so-called best in the world a run for their money. It's all about players and player platforming, none of this chess match control gimmick certain managers do

[Apo @apophenia57]

@flameosumeet I actually wrote about that some months ago, and my findings align with the consensus (just on management). Tbh, I think Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior act as proof, even if the recent loss stings

https://t.co/cUqPFHUSyz

[Apo @apophenia57]

@JoelAdejola FBRef is back 🥹

[Apo @apophenia57]

@polynoamial @kevinroose @JoelAdejola

[Apo @apophenia57]

@AlexVolloFPL Is DEFCON unpredictable? I have not seen any attempts to measure DEFCON prediction on the TL

[Apo @apophenia57]

@scottjwillis @Oli_Oilman I can believe that psxG is important in the ML sense (reduces error). I guess my question is where the line between decision and outcome lies, since the deserve meter seems to measure decision quality vs outcomes.