Awijit J Bhagat

reluctant idealistic realist
- subjective value creator
memento mori memento vivere amor fati carpe diem

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

'Thats the Superpower of Entrepreneurs-They don't know How hard it is--the pain ,the suffering,the vulnerability,the shame and embrassment-we trick our minds to keep going' @nvidia

“Running a start-up is like chewing glass and staring into the abyss. After a while, you stop staring, but the glass chewing never ends” -@elonmusk
People think creating a company is going to be fun- not for the faint of heart

Truth Seeking+Self awareness+Courage+Curiosity
@paulg @peterthiel @vkhosla
Brutal Honesty+Independent mindedness(IM)
-Fastidiousness abt Truth
-Resistance to being told what to think leave space
-Curiosity finds new ideas to fill in

Importance of Believing in secrets-
Knowing you are Solving an important problem-Choosing hard problems
That won't be solved by anyone else
That Innovations can occur even in mundane fields
Let your Drive Curiosity and Purpose, importance of mission Push you through the Obstacles and Pain

Earnestness as a virtue
Fierce Nerds+Alien truth
Anatomy of determination vs Drive solving problem you care about are abt

Do what ur Curious Abt vs what u Love
Ideas Beget ideas
Suspend disbelief and consensus

IM more matter of nature than nurture+ppl misjudge which side of spectrum they lie in

It matters who,type of ppl in surroundings
Simple Overlooked problems-where no one else looking-which look Obvious in hindsight

Consciously erase-mind not a neutral observer-debris n baggage of thought n societal patterns--Unlearning

Reason why most disruption,innovations come from outsiders-ambitious, courageous new comers--Unreasonable men + willingness to fail
Explicit belief in change

'What you can't say'-have to untangle ideas from conventional,to create/see new paradigm
The fact that you can't say something doesn't mean it's not True
Aspire to transcend ur time vs comfort in the herd

The most valuable insights are Both General + Suprising
Small addition of Generality+Delta of Novelty X multiplied by the area of the Sun

Amazon -Culture of Truth seeking
@JeffBezos
Humans not truth seeking animal,we are social animals
Village truth teller analogy-even in Scientific fields
Group Rules of Engagement-modify Social contract
-Let juniors speak first-get fresh new ideas to prevent herd mentality n bias
Have backbone-Disagree & Commit
Type 1-Type 2 door decision making
Customers are always beautifully dissatisfied-desire to delight

Curiosity+Insight+Self awareness driven Courage+Naivety+Leap of faith seen in every venture
Rational Optimist
But the Uncertainty,Challenges, Rollercoaster ride,sacrifices,All-in 24x7x365 Alert-Mindspace will always remain
Needs mental Fortitude to endure

The Hard thing about Hard things @bhorowitz
'The only thing the prepares you to run a company is running a company'
Peacetime+wartime switch
Way of warrior-Embrace struggle

Thumb rule-Takes double the time,triple the money,ten times hardwork of what you think it will take(multiply it by the scale of aspirations)
As lot of Unknown unknowns and Challenges @AnupamMittal

"Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision." -Peter F.Drucker

"Only the paranoid survive."

"If you don't drive your business, you will be driven out of business."

“The secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows.”

"The most successful entrepreneurs I know are optimistic. It's part of the job description."

“You can’t be successful in business without taking risks. It’s really that simple.”

Most people think that new discovery n innovation have peaked
Importance of Believing in Secrets and New discoveries
Innovation is almost insane by definition-look like bad ideas at start

$0 Billion Company+GenePool Engg
If-then,Flexi-Planning
Culture of Experimentation
Don't let Minimum win over Viable
Think Big,Act Small:Everest,basecamp
Risk Mgmt-Option Value
Unreasonable Men-willingness to fail
Planning-Illusion of Knowing
Try to fail,but don't fail to try

Be Obstinate abt Vision be Flexible about tactics

[Grok @grok]

**Patterns & learnings from the chart:**

- **Leverage × concentration** in illiquid bets (LTCM, Amaranth, Archegos, 3AC) turns small moves into wipeouts.
- **Liquidity mismatch** + margin spirals: funding dries up exactly when you need it (Bear Stearns, Lehman, MF Global).
- **Model overconfidence**: historical correlations hit 1 in stress; “safe” spreads explode (LTCM).
- **Governance failures**: hidden positions, rogue traders, weak oversight (Barings, Kerviel, London Whale).

**What leads good companies to overreach?**
Past success breeds hubris. They scale up, assuming their edge and exit liquidity will persist. Incentives reward AUM growth and short-term performance; risk teams get sidelined. They ignore tail liquidity and treat models as reality.

**Core lesson:** Position size to liquidity, not conviction. Stress-test the “impossible.” Independent risk with teeth beats genius. Survival > alpha.

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@gdalmiathinks @grok
What are the Patterns and Learnings from Above Bankruptcies

What Leads Good Companies to Overeach

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@SebJohnsonUK @grok
Make a list of each Companies in image with description of what they do
And potential reason of their success in Europe outside San francisco

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

After Meeting 100s of Fintech Companies
What even is 'Fintech' @dineshpaii

When Does Finance Become FinTech?Traditional finance has used technology for decades
Mainframes in the 1950s–60s
ATMs and core banking systems
Online banking in the 1990s

Finance becomes FinTech when technology moves beyond back-office support and becomes central to creating new products, business models, or user experiences
Faster,Cheaper,Accessible,Personalized

Isn’t Every Company a Tech Company?
'software is eating the world'

Tech Enabled vs True Tech Companies
'we’re a technology company that happens to do....xyz'

AI makes the Difference more Stark
AI Enabled/Assisted vs True AI Native Company

What is the Degree of Fin & Tech in Fintech . What is the Emphasis
What really creates Value & Profits in Fintech

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

Always Try to Build Moats
=On Premise Moat vs Cloud
Permissions & Setting Up Hardware

Moats vs Scale
Tradeoff of Hardware,Services Layer vs being Pure Software for Scale

Knowing Market Numbers
Phones vs Computer Gaming
Demand in different countries varied

=If Not Content Creator Almost Impossible to get Distribution Out Your Own Country as Different Preferences

=Difficult Projects
Storytelling in Public to get People,Team Aligned
-Attract Talent & Momentum

-Early Alphas Create Perception Problems
-What you should & shouldn't show
-Creating a Global Meme
Unique & Interesting
How Narrative Changes with Evidence

Otaku/Obsessions changes
Different Iterations of Fandoms Followers

Learning By Self & Others
Approaching Investors-a Numbers Game (1 out 70)
Leverage Ecosystem &Incubators
High Agency
Need for Community,people doing intresting things in Domain

Build a System That can Enable the Smartest, Hardworking,High Agency People to come and Do Experiments and Build the Next Cool Stuff
Breaking the Mold,Doing Differentiated Things
-Created a Platform for Something Bigger than Self

2/2

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

Video of Mayya-Learnings from @waitin4agi_ 🧵

Business Model Ground Realities Testing
Sales,Marketing & Distribution
Vs Just Technical & Features Building
(Soft skills & Finance skills)

Founders Skill to Build Team-get 3-4 People Together to Solve that Niche Problem

Distribution Matters
Usage Vs Monetization

B2B Customers & Platform Integration
Customer Persona and Types

Decision to Sell - Forward Looking if not Aligned with self

Build vs Buy
Integrate Others Works Easily
=If an End Platform to be used by Customer (integrate available ready made functionalities)
vs
If Building Niche Focused Tech Layer that changes Experience then Build it Ground up by Self

Engineers Density Culture can lead to Feature Gambling Mentality - in hope searching next viral feature
=Compensating for Lack of Distribution,Growth,PMF

Realisation that I have to make Feature Viral By Myself - Rarely things get Viral, widespread Automatically

Customer Preferences
Revealed vs Stated Preferences
-What Customer ask for verbalise vs what they will actually use(more widespread,less friction,etc)
The actual customer behaviour shows their Revealed preferences

-Choose Right Problem-Be Pragmatic
Better to Solve Easier Problems First
Before Solving Large Difficult Problems
Somethings are Too Hard
(First Build team,create capital, improve skills in hiring,leadership, network,Understand Market)
-Level up then solve Bigger Problems

Underlying Tools and Ecosystem change with time & can make Problems Easier and Possible to Solve

Timing & Hype-Inflection Points
Changing Economic Dynamics
Influencers & Marketing Promotions

Marketing First - Technology Second

Wiser to Build in New Areas -as Free Traction will give you Free Coverage & User Conversation

Traction is Most Important
Makes the Act of Engineering Worth it

Convenience Does Matter
Pay extra and Use more/Stickiness

Testing The Market Out-Getting Beak Wet - in Fast changing uncertainty -Running Experiments
(Try adding As much Value & Convenience Without Caring About How Technical It is)

Era of Credit Based Software

Hardest Part of Being Creator is Exhaustion
-Keep Churning out
Platforms reward Consistency
=Lead to Automation Experiment
People don't Care about Presenter dependent on Content Categories like News-because the Viewers care most about the News

Led to Business Model Innovation
-Spend on AI tools
-Revenue from Influencer Marketing

Products Got Commoditised vs Providing End Services

Contranianism & Probabilities
You Win Very Big -when you win on Bets on things most people think is Impossible
=Because Nobody Else Tries it Till it's Too Late

=Brand Matters
The Minute You Build Anything
Theiniute it Works & Gets Recognised
It will get Copied
-hence Personal Brand Met Real People face to face Along with AI Avatars

In 2 years anything New Will be the Norm and Everyone will use it in one click - Add more Defences, Moats

=Knowing When Not to Fight is an Important Skill
In Entrepreneurship Don't be So Attached to Your Domain
-Run Series of Experiments
& Walk down a Path Direction
When you Feel you have Edge against Competition & Market Will Reward You

You need to know If Niche will be Super competitive & How much Money you will need to Raise if going to Fight competition

Don't Compete With Large Platforms Unless Ready for Hard Fight,Time Years,Capital

=The Word Startup needs to Be Renamed Experiment
-Volume of Experiments- Compounds Learning,Judgement & Better Decision Marking

=Competition is For Losers
Competitive Space - You will Have Eroding Margins & Pricing Powers even If you will have Crazy Tech

=Whatever I Do I Make sure I do it in a way I atleast have 1-2 years of Zero Competition- to establish Foothold
-anyone having a need will come to you in that period

=You Don't go to Trendy Industries,You Create Trendy Industries or Create New Products in Trendy Industries
-Make New Movements Through Experiments

1/2

[Varun Mayya @waitin4agi_]

Are you planning to build something in technology or content in India? Here's 19 years of learnings compressed into 43 mins.

https://t.co/L1opUIEUHt

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

Every Niche Unique Good Food Brand
Loses it Quality if Takes Capital it Cannot Digest

(Only 5% Operators,Food Connoisseurs can Resist The Curse of Capital,Wrong Incentives & Say No)

With IRR Chasing Capital Destroys Taste,ingredient quality, portion sizes, freshness

Standardization and Supply Chain Optimisation & Cost Cutting

Rapid Scaling Cutting Corners
Expansion Hurts Quality

Seen in Every Good Food Single Joint or Global Chain

In the Last 10 years
Every Good Food Joints Slowly Loses its Quality and Becomes 'Meh'
Till We Find a New Alternative By Chance
And New 'Better for You' Version of same Old Flavours

Makes it hard because of Restaurant Business Dynamics and Customer Fluidity

Do Things That Don't Scale
Need to be Perpetual for Restaurant

In a Age Where People are Gatekeeping Spots for Themselves
Some Things based on 'Taste' need to have Gatekeeper from Capital

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@auren H S W

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

Should Healthcare & Education
Even Be a Investable Asset Class
Especially in a Country Like India

The Terms like Moats,Stickiness,Life Time Value and Inefficiency Economy in Investment Thesis and PE Decks for Hospitals
Will come to Bite All of Us

This Decade Will Become Unaffordable

=Only Solution is Government Funding At Scale & Insurance

In Private Sector Only Couple Institutions have Right Incentive Alignment

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@bhavintu How did you go about learning
Agentic Engineering

What sources/sites/blogs/people do Recommend
To Direct Self Learning DIY

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@pmarca @grok
What is New Media according to @pmarca and @a16z

How is Different From Old Media

Is consequence of People and Distribution Moats become Deeper and Differentiators,as AI is Eroding Software/Technology Moats

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@grok @HedgieMarkets @grok
Explain in Detail
How Valuation are Marked Up in VC

Is there no Checks & Balances
How is Valuation Rounds Decided in Unlisted Markets (Especially in AI age)

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@sbikh @BKartRed @vkhosla
@prashanthp @RajanAnandan
@avnish @VaniKola @Pai_dPiper
@kitty_agar @mukularora @_AnandDaniel @drriteshmalik
@1kunalbahl @kunalb11
@_sachinbansal @binnybansal
@vijayshekhar @deepigoyal @bhash
@dineshpaii @karthikrangappa
@Nithin0dha @nikhilkamathcio
@aakrit @177pc @soaibgrewal
@paulg @JamesCurrier
@naval @eladgil @RonConway
@johndoerr @moritzKBE
@dougleone @bgurley
@pmarca @bhorowitz
@chamath @DavidSacks @Jason
@peterthiel @sama @elonmusk

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

-Angel Pact or Faustian Bargain-
LESS IS MORE gets a Renewed Meaning in the Age of AI
=Tech Catch-22 (after 2022 AI Boom)

-Founder Control & Alignment
-Less Dilution vs Over-Raising
-Unrealistic Growth Pressure vs Realistic Value Creation
-Down Round & Valuation Traps
-Liquidation Preferences
-Capital Allocation Discipline
-Less Distraction & Noise
-Psychological & Culture effect Metric Chasing

When MORE IS MORE - When to Raise
-Speed & Market Capture
-Winner Take All,Network Effort Markets
-Capital Intensive & Long Gestation Domains
-Rare Talent & Execution Team Incentivisation
-Credibility,Network,Expertise

-Incentives will Drive the Decisions
Many will accept Golden Handcuffs To accept a Golden Parachute at End

[Dinesh Pai @dineshpaii]

Some conversations I have with entrepreneurs keeps reminding me of this short clip. And this is something we often discuss as a team as well within Rainmatter. That building a business for the long term in India takes a lot of things to go right. And lots of uncontrollables means, even more important to focus on making sure the things in control are done carefully.

Cap table and equity holding is such a massive part of any company. Incoming investors look at it. Incentives depend on it. Eventual payoffs (at exit or liquidation) also are, of course, based on it.

So yeah, I think as capital becomes more and more abundant for the best of the companies, and as India's VC industry grows, entrepreneurs must debate why they should dilute beyond a certain point. Sure, maybe sometimes the situation demands it, but when they have an option, I hope businesses raise lesser capital, dilute lesser equity and build for the long term.

Btw, we tell all the companies we invest in also about this actively.

(Please excuse some of the language in the video)

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

-Angel Pact or Faustian Bargain-
LESS IS MORE gets a Renewed Meaning in the Age of AI
=Tech Catch-22 (after 2022 AI Boom)

-Founder Control & Alignment
-Less Dilution vs Over-Raising
-Unrealistic Growth Pressure vs Realistic Value Creation
-Down Round & Valuation Traps
-Liquidation Preferences
-Capital Allocation Discipline
-Less Distraction & Noise
-Psychological & Culture effect Metric Chasing

When MORE IS MORE - When to Raise
-Speed & Market Capture
-Winner Take All,Network Effort Markets
-Capital Intensive & Long Gestation Domains
-Rare Talent & Execution Team Incentivisation
-Credibility,Network,Expertise

-Incentives will Drive the Decisions
Many will accept Golden Handcuffs To accept a Golden Parachute at End

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@paulg @grok
Why is Rate of Shipping the Best Predictor Of Success of Tech Companies

Analyse What are the most Important Factors that Decide success of Tech companies

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@EricJorgenson Priority List
-Paul Graham @paulg
-Peter Theil @peterthiel
-Jenson Huang @nvidia
-Marc Andresson @pmarca
-Vinod Khosla @vkhosla

-Unique Cultural/Intellectual Impact
-Fragmented but Rich public output
-High Idea Density & Practicality
-Audience fit
-Timeliness Relevance Themes

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@nikhilkamathcio
Foundery is a Cool Initiative
Can be Great

=Please Try Foundery 2 with few Tweaks
(Otherwise will be Swimming Upstream)
(1)Location-Bengaluru
(2)Selection Criteria - for Hunger & Drive
(3)Capital & Equity Stake-Incentive Alignment,Follow On Math

=Hopefully First Iteration will give lot of Insights & Learnings

[Awijit J Bhagat @AwijitB]

@TheIcahnist @grok
What are the Main Learnings Insights from Articles

Also any Other Business Lessons Patterns from Shipping Magnates