Cedarville Polls

Your friendly neighborhood OH pollster

Unofficial archivist of #ElectionTwitter sentiment

Data crafts the narrative. Don't let your narrative craft the data

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Fantastic article on 2024 Pres/Senate ticket splitting from @kkondik and @Center4Politics (h/t to @JMilesColeman as always too).

TLDR get ready for a lot of swing state races to be:

✓45% Trump
✓45% Biden
✓10% RFK/West/Stein

But 51% Dem, 49% Rep for Senate.

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball, @kkondik looks at President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests.
https://t.co/Sx2pizw3m8

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

@ECaliberSeven Largely due to strong Drazan campaign coattails, who even though she lost provided a blueprint for future statewide Republican wins: focus on cost of living and practical, results oriented governance. Kotek is unpopular but not *quite* enough to be defeated. Will be gone in 2030.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

@LarrySabato @henryolsenEPPC @kkondik @SeanTrende @WinWithJMC @JMilesColeman @DrewSav @Center4Politics @RalstonReports @Nate_Cohn @SteveKornacki @PpollingNumbers @PollsterPatrick @Politics_Polls @MysteryPollster @cinyc9 @Redistrict @selzer

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Want early insight into bellwethers for #NJGovernor results tonight? Keep an eye on #PassaicCounty, which in 2021 closely matched then-incumbent Gov Murphy's margin (51.5% D to 47.7% R - Ciattarelli) before flipping to Trump in 2024 (49.7% R to 46.8% D - Harris).

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Thus the candidate leading after the first few hours and solid large city results is generally the candidate who wins. No come from behinds in the Garden State!

(Although personally we here at CU Polls are curious about the effects, if any, of the abolishment of the party line)

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

..due to blue/left/mail ballots typically being counted first and red/right/in person ballots counted second. The shift is nearly non-existent in NJ. Due to the aforementioned rules many counties release mail ballot and in person ballot results together with no clear distinction.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Curious how early voting in VA can give you a "baseline" for the gov race? Follow @WinWithJMC for stellar updates ✅ H/t @ChazNuttycombe @LarrySabato @DecisionDeskHQ and the first #ET JMC I ever followed on Twitter - @JMilesColeman too! Each always has unique, thoughtful insights

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

Granted, early voting is the Democrats' crown jewel here (particularly mail), but numerical intensity is what JMC is interested in. Here is the breakdown of the percent of the 2021 EV coming from each "partisan bucket"
(3/3)

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

H/t @LarrySabato @SeanTrende @JMilesColeman @kkondik @henryolsenEPPC @RCPolitics @DrewSav @DecisionDeskHQ and the "rest of the best of ET" on if midterms now fundamentally lean Dem due to high propensity voters while general elections will tilt Rep for the foreseeable future.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Two FASCINATING crosstabs comparing the RE Oct '24 poll with the Aug '25:

Women Oct '24: +25 Harris
Women Aug '25: +15 Sherrill

Less than college degree Oct '24: +8 Harris
Less than college degree Aug '25: +11 Ciatarelli

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Usual caveats all apply (mods likely break Sherrill, NJ Gov goes opposite the previous presidential election, etc) but IMHO this is an indication in the Trump 2.0 era it's all about turnout. The low Ed/propensity voters are just deciding IF they'll vote, not changing their minds.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Two FASCINATING crosstabs comparing the RE Oct '24 poll with the Aug '25:

Women Oct '24: +25 Harris
Women Aug '25: +15 Sherrill

Less than college degree Oct '24: +8 Harris
Less than college degree Aug '25: +11 Ciatarelli

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

NEW JERSEY (2024) POLLING

I just have (from '24) 2 polling firms who polled the President/Senate races (that's the bad news). The good news: both polls were released late in the election cycle, so we have a performance "benchmark" if these specific pollsters go into NJ this yr.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

RE has a database of their polls going back to 1971(!)
https://t.co/2uIs00QHJM

Instructive to see bias of their other final poll results:

2021 NJ Gov +8D (actually +3D)
2020 NJ Pres +24D (actually +20D)
2018 NJ Senate +5D (actually +11D)
2016 NJ Pres +24D (actually +13D)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

For context's sake, R-E released a poll on 10/30/2024, with results below:

Harris 55-35 (+20) - actual was 52-46 Harris (+6)
Andy Kim 49-26 (+23) - actual was 54-44 Kim (+10)

IOW, a "miss" on the scale of the last minute Selzer poll in Iowa.

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

@SeanTrende You should apply for the plate then 🤣

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Finally! After over a decade of living in Ohio at last I pull up to a light at the same time as @SeanTrende 😂 Bucket list ✅

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Do you remember when you joined X (it was Twitter then!!)? I do! #MyXAnniversary #MyTwitter

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Any closing WI Supreme court race thoughts? @DrewSav @WinWithJMC @JMilesColeman @kkondik @LarrySabato @SeanTrende

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Any closing WI race thoughts @DrewSav @WinWithJMC @JMilesColeman @kkondik @LarrySabato @sea

[Cedarville Polls @cedarvillepolls]

Given the incredibly tight margins in recent elections, the left base being angry and the right base being "comfortable" plus the fact that northern registered moderate voters tend to vote to "balance out" the current climate, the prediction is Crawford will win.