Camille Larmanou

Crowd Forecasting, decision making, collective intelligence.

I create content @Hypermind_com, co-founder of @TheSchoolofCI

Into cog sci, data viz, copywriting

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

How can you make yourself smarter by using the minds around you?

The science of Collective Intelligence tells us how to combine opinions, the importance of cognitive diversity and how to help it flourish by safeguarding independent thought 👇

https://t.co/JdIRTbgFMJ

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@FranckRamus @LEXPRESS J'ai entendu beaucoup de gens bien dire des choses horribles à ce sujet, des réactions viscérales contre cette comparaison mais avec très peu d'arguments concrets pour justifier leur position.
On dirait presque une de ces expériences de motivated reasoning à la Jonathan Haidt.

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

Great free resource for people who want to solve complex public problems with collective intelligence 👇

[Beth Simone Noveck @bethnoveck]

🌋🌋 Eruption in Iceland, earthquake in China, countless global crises.

We can use our collective know how to respond.

Want to learn how? Free Crisis Collective Intelligence course by @thegovlab @nesta_uk @UNDP @FAScientists @MonashMSDI https://t.co/2PppJFtSQv @BurnesCenter

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@KateBour Amazing resource, excited to try these out next time I'm interviewing researchers / experts in my field. I think they would work great, especially "why did you decide to do it that way?" and "why do you care about that?" (even though I'm selling an idea and not a product)

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@tomstello_ @GordPennycook @ChristieANewton @hauselin Does this mean we would be better off scraping any self reported measures in favour of more objective calibration / resolution?

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@MattPotter @Reddit_Books @Reddit @HachetteUS Great AMA Matt, definetly piqued my interest :)

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@SpencrGreenberg Thanks for clarifying :)

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@SpencrGreenberg So why don't psychologists switch to a p-value threshold of 0.01?

Would it upset things because too many studies couldn't reach a stricter threshold?

Is it just convention that's been around too long?

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@ProfitLegend $

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@Nicolascole77 Why exactly are you against better? Is it too vague and anyone could say it without proof?

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Collective intelligence goes way deeper than just togetherness.

For cognitive scientist @emiless2012, it's about how you organize interactions between minds to get a smarter result. (for us, better predictions)

Check out @softwareinblue's full interview https://t.co/5pGqcbZ0ma

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

"Collective intelligence is about using other people's stupidity to compensate for your own"

Our e=mc² for great crowd forecasting is @Scott_E_Page's diversity theorem

It shows that while expertise counts, diversity counts AS MUCH to reduce error

more: https://t.co/5pGqcbZ0ma

[triangulation @triangulation16]

@acerbialberto Misinformation provides people with the resources to rationalize what they already have an incentive to believe.

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@twieguez Tu pourrais donner un exemple concret de biais qui devient plus explicable ? :)

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

@DPiepgrass Yes exactly, thanks for checking.

Self criticism with the benefit of hindsight:
The benefit of watching the video isn't clear, the visuals are very bland (lots of white)

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

Honest opinions wanted:

How bad is the thumbnail on this video ?
Would you click it ?

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

And that's just 1 on the 4 habits of the best forecasters

You can learn the key concepts in 10 minutes, but you need consistent long term exercise to get as good as Robert.

https://t.co/AhJTdJvWc8

[Paul Graham @paulg]

This essay makes a very important point: Most people's mental image of living sustainably is a fairy tale image of the opposite.

https://t.co/oGR15DWhjp

[Tivadar Danka @TivadarDanka]

Behold one of the mightiest tools in mathematics: the camel principle.

I am dead serious. Deep down, this tiny rule is the cog in many methods. Ones that you use every day.

Here is what it is, how it works, and why it is essential.

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

I'd like my EU studies degree back please.

[Xavi Ruiz @xruiztru]

This is a superb visualization of European history (1500-2022).
https://t.co/e87t1bKxYC

[Camille Larmanou @CLarmanou]

Interesting reframing on Putin's war in Ukraine:

"But if you think of it as a mob hit to intimidate states from exiting the protection racket that delivers corrupt rent streams to Russia's ruling kleptocrats, then it at least made sense"

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

A great example of sharp forecasting :
• Zoom out, find similar events (other midterms, duh)
• Calculate an average frequency: +7.3 points to incubant party
• Zoom in to adjust according to the particularities of the situation: Democrats are losing ground in the polls