Cameron

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@ensembleator @SteveRickettsSP Honestly, the BCNDP losing just 2.5% of their massive 2020 vote share, and winning a slim majority is pretty incredible given these circumstances. People seem to like when a government looks like they're making big moves on big issues (eg housing)

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@DouglasTodd @CityofVancouver Did you miss the highway-side gas station that was here, or the weed-filled lot and chain link fence?

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@SyntheticusAlt Next election there are thousands of new rental and condos and a UBCO campus. Kelowna Centre will be in play for the NDP going forward.

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@BlakeCousins @David_Moscrop Which deters conservative voters. Fine, live in conspiracy land and drive your turnout down. No sympathy from me

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@richardzussman @busdriverlife So they will determine which recounts happen after that I suppose?

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@Prominent_Bryan @kylejhutton It's making logical, but of course unprovable inferences. Looking at why mail-in tilted so heavy left you'd say it's likely carry over from the massive tilt left during Covid. And a better GOTV effort to nab late ballots. Common sense inferences. Chill.

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@chadskelton I'd say that's GOTV in action more than a particular lean of procrastinators

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@Prominent_Bryan @kylejhutton Because one party did a better job reminding their voters that they could still send in their mail-in ballots, late, and it's looking like they won that vote by astronomical margins

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@steeletalk Surprised they waited until the recount turned out against their preferred candidate. It's just childish stuff. And no adult should act that way

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@vancolour @VancouverThorn A 2-term gov in an anti-incumbency world, against a united opposition when your side is still split? The takes are looking pretty sour a week out. First 3-term NDP gov in this electoral climate is a huge feat, and part of it is thay Eby went into the campaign w/net + approval

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@CanadianPolling Maybe 2 tbh. Need to see what the Kelowna margins look like

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@CdnElectWatch The margin needed for the NDP to win Kelowna was pretty much the same as Guildford. There's like 1/3 more ballots to count in Kelowna

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@VaughnPalmer Given how heavy the covid mail-in favoured the NDP, no surprise that their voters learned the practice of using mail-in

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@sobittersosweet It's 46 to 48 for the NDP. No chance Cons flip any now. That is definitive

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@richardzussman The recounts needed will be in Con held seats. Both narrow NDP wins will end up well over 100 vote margins

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@kylejhutton @adropboxspace They lost some of their coalition and gained elsewhere. But if they hold on its Canada's 1st 3-term NDP govt, against anti-incumbency headwinds, w/a relatively strong Green (by Canada's standards) and a united centre-right/right. More nuance is needed in conventional wisdom takes

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@kylejhutton @adropboxspace It's pretty clear that anti-incumbency is running hot and the BCNDP vastly outperformed every other incumbent government going to election. Not surprising because Eby went into the campaign with a net positive approval rating.

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@MaxwellACameron We'll likely know enough by 1pm today

[Cameron @cmrnbourne]

@UBCIC @JohnRustad4BC If she wins by Monday, the recall campaign better start on Tuesday.