Conviction bets

AI Researcher, Founder & Investor.

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@mattkalish @RickHeaslip Totally bullshit

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@shiri_shh Did you see revenue gap? 100X difference

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@ivanalog_com 好傻逼的分析，这个跟奢侈品完全不是一个概念，那个是小众的需求，高级智能的需求TAM完全不同

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@AstraiaAI Fake website

[Brandon Beckhardt @beckhardt]

During the FIFA World Cup, Kalshi became one of the world's most visible brands.

• 29B+ impressions - more than every major brand
• Best World Cup Commercial (Adweek/EDO)
• 5.8M+ downloads
• $27B traded

We did it with a team of 15. There's no secret sauce🧵

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@defioasis Kalshi牛逼

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@mattkalish Bullshit

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@OpenAIDevs No use

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@thsottiaux No one cares

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@mattkalish Stop bullshit

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@xmgplus 根本不是either or的关系，是both

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@williamlab 送屁钱啊，你们不看估值吗

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@chamath @defisats This is not distilling. Please stop bullshit

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@RealYDT 第一不需要总想着去证明，那个是follower 的想法，第一想的是开创新的赛道

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@pmddomingos Not really.

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Kimi's biggest impact is not on Anthropic and OpenAI, but on Thinking Machine Lab

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@TheAhmadOsman Too fake. Stop bullshit

[Kun Chen @kunchenguid]

ok just spent a morning with Kimi K3 as my firstmate, here's my real experience

1. it's very, very slow

potentially due to the fixed max reasoning. you should expect the experience of something slightly slower than fable

2. its claimed cost efficiency is not manifesting in real economics

i bought the $40 plan, and a few prompts later it's already eaten 1/3 of my 5-hr limit - it was in a single session and my context window was only 200k long at that time

i don't care what the benchmark numbers say, and what the face value API pricing is, in reality Kimi K3 burns my Kimi subscription as quickly as Fable burns my Anthropic plan - i observe no efficiency benefit

3. its instruction following capability is weaker than other frontier models

firstmate stretches frontier models' reasoning capability and is a really good test that can quickly reveal how good a model is at following instructions

the pure "intelligence" of K3 does hold up - it understands my intent very well, and can diagnose problems, delegate tasks all fine

but i very quickly noticed many instructions in firstmate's system prompt not strictly followed by Kimi K3. these were never a problem with gpt 5.5, 5.6, opus, fable and grok 4.5

so all in all, i'm now very skeptical of the claimed performance and going to keep my eyes wide open on its true capability

[Conviction bets @conviction_bets]

@bindureddy Fake marketing

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@techeconomyana 人间清醒