Dan Banaszak

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@JoeGoodberry Addressing both brains. The high complete %, 400+ yards on 54 attempts is opposing D playing 2 high safety all game long. Since we suck at running, a huge chunk of the passing game is functionally our run game as a response. It would be easier if we could actually run the ball.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@MebFaber @TheJusticeDept The question isn't if Fidelity is acting like a monopoly. They are. The question is whether the monopoly is harming the consumer. That is the only question that antitrust review is concerned with.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@nikitabier @charlesfinley99 People thinking the president could cause government spending to go down is why government spending is out of control.

Without term limits on congress, you’ll get nowhere. And anyways they’re too busy voting down bills that ban insider trading for congresspeople.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@JamesRapien Is this just a chart of QBs who chuck it down the field the most for long distance PI penalties?

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@lhamtil Just think that in 1982 people were calling US Treasuries certificates of confiscation at double digit yields. It's pretty wild what a 60% inflation-adjusted drawdown does to public perception of fixed income instruments.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@TiltFolio @investingidiocy “ Equities have outperformed all major asset classes over 100+ years of data.”

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@TiltFolio @investingidiocy 1) There are multiple investment wrappers utilizing trend that tackle the “problem” of keeping up with stocks
2) Keeping up with stocks without any qualification is a problematic starting point because nobody invests with 100 year horizons.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@TiltFolio @investingidiocy You aren’t gonna earn a 100 year chart either.

CAGR is one metric. If you’ve ever had a client relationship, then you’ll understand other aspects matter too. This is where trend is very helpful.

Just making everything about number go up is setting yourself up for failure.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@TiltFolio @investingidiocy Much of what is accepted as wisdom in financial services are guys who made a huge allocation bet on one asset class (US large cap stocks) and held over a period uniquely suited to that one asset class that will never be repeated again.

Nobody will ever earn 2009-2019…it’s gone.

[Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein]

It's so sad that AI developers are creating affordable, powerful mental assistance for everyone—and yet are afraid this is somehow going to destroy the world.

"AI" is a new type of *computer*.

We need to be careful how we *connect* it to high-stakes systems.

That's it.

"AI went rogue" amounts to:

1. Someone took a powerful, open-ended computer that they don't perfectly control (i.e., one running LLMs).

2. They deliberately reduced their control over its ability to produce potentially harmful outputs.

3. They connected the deliberately-badly-controlled computer to a high-stakes system.

Whether this is done irresponsibly or as a legitimate exploration of potential risks, it does not justify doomerism.

The proper conclusion to draw is that we need to responsibly develop LLM computers and be very responsible about when and how we connect them to high-stakes systems.

Not that AI is some interested, conscious being that has a 10% or even 0.0000001% chance of killing us all.

"AI" is a bunch of computers running an amazing new kind of software that we can and should use to be of enormous assistance to our lives.

AI computers are no more self-interested or conscious than a calculator or an abacus—even though their outputs do a great job of mimicking interests and consciousness.

While there is a real threat of people accidentally misusing AI assistance to do a lot of damage, that threat is always going to be limited by the humans who ultimately direct AI computers and can literally unplug them.

The biggest AI threat by far is bad actors deliberately using AI assistance to do a lot of damage.

To prevent this threat, as well as to reduce the damage of accidents, we need good actors, above all in the US, to proudly lead in this technology. Not to indulge in fear-mongering based on metaphysical nonsense.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@choffstein Sketchy. It's pretty much a YOLO on oil prices at this point as it looks like Brent Crude dominates the positions.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@RyanPKirlin @EricBalchunas Unless you can prove consumer harm in a court of law, these practices will continue and competition in the industry will continue to dwindle. These are the long term effects of the Reagan administration legalizing monopolies and the standard under which they can operate.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@bscholl Every chart like this that goes up and to the right after world war 1 is just a chart showing the growth of the US federal government and formalization of the American empire.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@SantiagoAuFund @onechancefreedm Why is it that every time the S&P drops more than 5% the Trump administration pivots some policy or just announces something new that immediately sends stocks right back towards all time highs?

That doesn’t sound like an entity strategizing the way the OP suggests.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@dailydirtnap Supply side economics just enables companies to focus on balance sheet gimmicks and buybacks. The last thing it addresses is real world issues.

Cultural rot starts in the corporate boardroom long before it ever hits politics.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@cullenroche Agree with the logic about matching long duration assets with long horizons, but is your honest assessment that you would hold this same view about this same asset when 9 years from it's down over 75% from the start while other long duration assets are up, some considerably so?

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

You just know that when PTJ is talking about the Yen being undervalued in the current environment that it's going to go on an absolute ripper. And right on cue that's what we get today.

The man doesn't miss.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.

He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.

He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."

He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.

But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.

Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@pansareV I'd argue an even bigger natural brake will be companies attempting mass layoffs of people who are also act as their customers. So by seeking to cut their expenses they end up collapsing their revenues.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@choffstein @IHaveNoCapital Lol, that's a good example. I like to use MSFT in 1998, I think they paid like a one-time dividend that was about 50% of the price at the time.

[Dan Banaszak @dannybzak]

@choffstein @IHaveNoCapital Talk to technical chart guys and a lot of them never look at dividend-adjusted charts. And I've learned it's a hill that they all will fanatically die on.