Don McDaniel

Entrepreneur | Contrarian | Speaker | Innovator | Builder | Economist | DISRUPTING STATUS QUO

[Kennedy @KennedyNation]

When American POWs tried to sneak her notes with their personal information to tell their families they were still alive, she gave them to the North Vietnamese. Some of them were beaten to death. You are both commies and you can both fuck off.

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Seeing this in a hotel lobby in West Virginia gives me great hope for society. Not exactly the place I expected to see the wit and wisdom of Thomas Sowell - refreshing.

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Yes it’s true they’re a fraud.

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

Hospitals are the biggest driver of rising U.S. health care costs.

Many operate as tax-exempt “non-profits” while running massive commercial systems.

This results in less competition, higher costs, and shrinking tax bases.

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

And let me add intensely focused on solving what has become for him “his thing” his purpose, his why - how
Can you not appreciate someone stepping on the public stage to right an injustice, at great personal risk.

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Spencer Pratt is coherent and reasonable.

If he becomes LA’s next mayor he will return that city to safety and greatness.

Please watch the entire debate and judge for yourself.

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Watch this - let me restate and emphasize @KarenBassLA is an incredible liar” … and incredibly arrogant … and incredibly dumb … she is a mockery.

[CBS News @CBSNews]

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt kicked off the city's mayoral debate in a heated exchange on Wednesday after Pratt called Bass "an incredible liar," and claimed she misguided Angelenos about the facts of the Palisades Fire when it broke out last year.

CBS News' @JonVigliotti, who has been closely reporting on and investigating the blaze for over a year, fact checked two key moments from the debate.

[Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt]

CBS got the call after fact-checking Karen Bass, so they tried to turn a 1 hour interview with me into a 5 minute hit piece. They need to air the full, unedited interview.

[Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt]

LA has over 40K drug addicts holding Angelenos hostage. All it takes is one to make moms feel too nervous to let their kids just go be kids and explore the quiet streets of their beautiful neighborhood. ENOUGH. We are done being held hostage in our own homes. Vote PRATT today!

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

Douglas Murray:

"There is no two-state solution on the table anymore. The Palestinians were given a de facto state in 2005 when every Jew was removed from Gaza. They had 18 years. What did they do with it? Rockets, war, October 7th."

He's 100% correct.

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Worth a read

[Gary Brode @Gary_Brode]

The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card

When Raji Khabbaz and I were running Silver Arrow Investment Management, whenever we were trying to figure out why something happened, he was unsatisfied the explanation that people are sometimes stupid and institutions are often stupid. He correctly thought that people usually have a good reason (at least to them) for doing something even if it appears to make little sense to an outsider. More importantly, he thought that “sometimes people are stupid” was a lazy answer that was dismissive. As investors, it was our goal to understand what was happening, not to ignore it.

Recently, I’ve written that many of President Trump’s critics are making the same error. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously transported 20% of the world’s oil supply, the price of oil rose. Gas prices in the US have risen in response. Many screamed that this was an obvious move by the Iranian regime and insisted President Trump should have known it was something they’d do. How could he not know?!

In 2002, the US Navy conducted war games they called the Millennium Challenge. One side represented Iran. The other represented the technologically superior US Navy and included an aircraft carrier, warships, and cruisers. The US Navy side had a substantial advantage in firepower. Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper used asymmetric warfare tactics to wipe out the US side in one day. Had this been a real fight, the US would have lost 20,000 servicemen. The result was such an embarrassment that the Navy re-floated the sunk ships, changed the rules of engagement to ensure a US victory, and started the challenge again.

These games were not a secret. They have been widely covered in the mainstream media and have been the subject of a New York Times documentary. Over the past two decades, I have seen the Millennium Challenge discussed in my daily financial news reading at least a dozen times. The event has its own Wikipedia page. Regardless of your opinion of President Trump, do you really believe that neither he, nor anyone in the White House, nor any of his military advisors, nor Secretary of War, Hegseth knew about this? I realize that many of you reading this have strong negative emotions regarding President Trump. I’m not asking you to like or respect him. I’m just suggesting that “he’s stupid and has no idea what he’s doing” is not good analysis. This is a point I’ve made in this space in the past.

Early in the war, Iran closed the Strait which placed economic pressure on the rest of the world. Despite the fact that it was Iran mining the Strait and shooting at the ships that attempted to navigate it, many countries expressed anger at the US and Israel. This was the outcome Iran wanted. Then, the regime decided to allow friendly ships to pass if they paid a fee. The fees were about $1/barrel of oil, or about $2MM per large container vessel. (Many of these fees were paid in Bitcoin, something macro analyst, @peruvian_bull, explained in an excellent post within the past week.)

This looked like worst-case scenario for the US. Iran succeeded in closing the Strait and causing economic problems all over the world, then found a way to profit from their own actions. Then, President Trump played his “reverse uno” card. He correctly realized that it wasn’t just the rest of the world that depended on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was Iran that had the most exposure. Iran is a big oil producer, and oil exports account for 80% of Iran’s exports, 60% of government revenue, and 25% of its GDP. It turns out that Iran has more economic exposure to this narrow waterway than anyone else. President Trump sent the US Navy to form a blockade. He closed the Strait himself ensuring no more $2MM/vessel charges and an inability for Iran to export oil.

Iran is close to filling its own storage. Once its oil tanks are full, the regime has two choices, either capitulate and come to an agreement with the US, or to stop producing from its own wells. The problem with the second choice is that it’s difficult to reverse. Stopping production on an active oil well tends to damage it and it’s hard to re-start later. Iran now has a limited amount of time to find a course of action before 25% of its GDP becomes permanently(ish) impaired.

While no one in the US likes paying more for gas, prices were much higher just four years ago in 2022 and around $4/gallon in 2008, 2011, and 2012 when $4 had more purchasing power than it does now. The US is a net energy exporter with an economy that has survived higher prices in the past. Foreign ships are turning away from the Strait of Hormuz and sailing to Texas and other southern US ports to fill up at premium prices. I’m not suggesting that this is great for the US; but rather, that the US is well-suited to manage the situation while Iran is about to be faced with a massive long-term problem.

Finally, Iran maintains control of the country using extensive human infrastructure. There are police everywhere monitoring protests, internet usage, the attire of citizens, and the hair of Iranian women. That level of control is expensive and the government just lost 60% of its revenue. I’m wondering how long they’ll keep doing their jobs without paychecks.

I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that President Trump and the US Navy have turned Iran’s biggest strategic strength into a giant weakness. Sometimes people do stupid things. And sometimes, we just aren’t seeing the reasoning behind those actions. Last week, one of DKI’s interns wrote, ”The bottom line is that (financial analysis) can tell you what the market’s pricing in, but it’s your job to figure out why”. Right now, the mullahs are facing a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see what comes next.

[Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz]

Former President Obama in July 2020:

“For too long, gerrymandering has contributed to stalled progress and warped our representative government.”

👉🏻 https://t.co/bCnMNxWBJy

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Shocking response from European leader

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

The Strait of Hormuz is blockaded.
Europe's plan?

Ursula von der Leyen: "The cheapest energy is the one you don't use." Stay home, don't drive, don't use electricity.

The EU has no plan and no military to change do anything. So they are stuck with "monitoring the situation"

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

So stupid

[Ron DeSantis @RonDeSantis]

Uh, yeah.

[Eyal Yakoby @EYakoby]

20 people were invited to see a video that exposes Palestinian propaganda.

Every single one had the same response: “I feel like a moron.”

[Avi Avidan @avavidan]

https://t.co/v45OMYlyKz

[Brit Hume @brithume]

Wait, what? I thought Iran said it wouldn't even agree to talk until there was a Lebanon ceasefire and the unblocking of Iran's assets. Neither of those things has happened. Perhaps it's time to stop taking seriously what Iran says publicly?

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Prescient

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tragically & hilariously true

[جمال سلطان @GamalSultan1]

في اعتقادي أن النظام الحالي في إيران انتهى عمليا، لم يبق له شيء من مقومات الاستمرار، سوى بعض الصواريخ والمسيرات التي يشاغب بها الحرس الثوري ليثبت أنهم ما زالوا على قيد الحياة وقادرون على المقاومة، العملية الأمريكية لإنقاذ الطيارين فضحت الخواء والهزال، فضحت كل شيء، الدولة التي تنهار اقتصاديا وعسكريا بهذا القدر، وشعبها منقسم بعمق، وتحاصر من محيط جغرافي معادٍ لها من كل الجوانب تقريبا، وتفقد سيادتها على برها وبحرها وجوها، تكون قد انتهت واقعيا، والمسألة مسألة أيام أو أشهر قليلة، إيران على أبواب عهد جديد

[Guy Benson @guypbenson]

And this guy knows all about shooting and killing because of his service back in Nam

[Mark Suster @msuster]

Incredibly satisfying ~2 min video

@dansenor you should have waited an hour! Tape an update after the latest elimination!! 😊

Thank you for your contributions these past 2.5 years. Call Me Back best podcast on region by a mile

[Don McDaniel @don_mcdaniel]

Leave no doubt

[Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow]

Wow