Evaluator

Dark side of the moon

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

®️

[Domer❤️‍🔥 @Domahhhh]

The criticism that prediction markets reflect "conventional wisdom" is a bit daft to me, for a number of reasons. I'll give three of them.

1. It's unclear why reflecting the "conventional wisdom" is bad in the first place, even if it's wrong. It's good to get a numerical grasp on what everyone thinks! It's also good to know about changes to conventional wisdom!

Some of the markets communicate quite important information that will have large ramifications on the world (i.e. Fed interest rate changes, recession odds, next US President), and getting some sense of what the 'conventional wisdom' is about the future is important for decision making.

2. Prediction markets have been around awhile, and on the whole, the people who are decently good at pricing events now have more money, and the people not so good have not so much. The current iteration of prediction markets have the smartest money they've ever had, a trend that will continue. Incremental, small improvements over time.

Many markets will be exceptions to the rule, for unique factors, but by and large the markets will have higher quality information than the past, so you should be paying more attention to them than in the past.

3. At this point, a very large portion of the world is totally silo-ed in their news, and can't see the forest for the trees. Especially in the United States where it's basically a two team sport, people get terrible information that biases them in godawful ways. They essentially wear a blindfold of partisanship. And we traditionally associate this with Republicans, but as an example -- we just saw quite a lot of Democrats being totally blinded to the fact that Biden had to drop out. They rejected that Biden had issues, rejected that the debate was a huge problem, rejected polling, rejected that he was likely to get blown out by Trump. Prediction markets are in many ways a partial cure to information silos on both sides of the aisle. People can be shown reality.

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Overall, I would say that the point of a prediction market isn't to be an oracle that tells you the future. It can and will be wrong, sometimes hilariously wrong. The goal is to be BETTER than the alternative. A better flashlight to look ahead at the murky future.

And always bear in mind that in the absence of prediction markets, you are left purely with punditry that is unmoored from any incentive to be correct. And actually, punditry is getting worse, and the world is awash in bad punditry. Because the world needs "content" and opinion/punditry provides a lot of it. And there are actually high incentives to provide entertaining and not great predictions, especially in information silos, because people love hearing what they WANT to hear and not necessarily what is true or they need to hear. Prediction markets cut through the biased punditry BS that is flooding the world.

[Mike S. @prophet_notes]

The Clarity Act market fell over 10 points in just a few minutes after one trader bought over 1,000,000 No shares.

Some traders in the comments think this is an insider. However, there is a simpler explanation.

Bitcoin has already risen over 10% in the last week on the revived hopes that the Clarity Act will pass. It is more likely that this person is hedging their crypto longs than anything else.

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

Polymarket is wrong
RP is going to take both (senate & house)

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

@PwnSplat @HighyieldHarry Oh well. Soon AI will adjust lawyers' salaries, and surgeons' salaries will skyrocket—because there's no gap among law partners with low IQs

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

@AWice Well, you were the one who said there'd be money everywhere

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

@LeylaKuni No worries, Hindus, Mexicans, and Philippino will help you with economy - they have enough children for this

[Harry Crane @HarryDCrane]

Regarding Freddi, I said that someone with $50m at stake would likely have commissioned private polls.

I did not believe it was manipulation.
I did not believe that he was banking on a polling miss on blind faith.

You don't amass $50m+ by being stupid.

[Domer❤️‍🔥 @Domahhhh]

France 1
Domer 0

Je jette l'éponge

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

@tegmark this is crazy...

[Harald Malmgren @Halsrethink]

And desperate measures inevitably lead to desperation in key market segments and geographic locations. Severe market storms in 2025?

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

oh come on

don't worship an account that guessed something once and is promoting it for all it's worth, because when there will be a similar next window she doesn't know

i would bet that on one day she will kill a lot of players - not on purpose, but just because she will be wrong

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

while AI models are capable of processing vast amounts of text and responding based on language patterns, they lack cognitive abilities such as physical perception, memory, and action planning

despite the computational power of current models, this power alone is not enough to achieve true intelligence

AI has yet to overcome the conceptual hurdles to reach the level of at least animal intelligence, let alone human intelligence, a process that could take decades

#AI #OpenAI #ArtificialIntelligence

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

It's insane that people dismiss AI Alignment concerns as doomerism when so many of the top people in AI believe it's an existential risk to humanity

@geoffreyhinton, godfather of AI/nobel prize winner
@elonmusk, cofounder of OpenAI/XAI
Entire Anthropic founding team/employees
@ilyasut , @miramurati, @johnschulman2 ,etc ex Open AI execs
Andrew Yao, @Yoshua_Bengio, Turing Award Winners
@ericschmidt , ex-CEO of Google
Stuart Russel, Academic AI Research Pioneer

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

i have profit from #polymarket so thats why i going to buy some #SOL on spot, because this is new young horse

this is just momentum bet, i still don't believe in #AltSeason2024, and still think that better to buy alts in December (low caps for game change)

but i can be wrong, so this is antifomo bets

P.S. i mentioned earlier that you can deploy 50% of your bankroll - this is what i am doing right now

50% i will keep for the December

#BTC #ETH #SOL #Solana #Alts #Altcoins

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

should i buy it?

#BTC #Ethereum #ETH #SOL #Altseason #Altcoins

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

should i buy it?

#BTC #Ethereum #ETH #SOL #Altseason #Altcoins

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

told ya

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

absolutely agree

when a handful of players like (@Domahhhh) remain for years on the leaderboard of markets like the prediction market - it tells us that such players:

1) have insider information

2) have better structured information, which allows them to interpret data more accurately, and see a positive EV relative to the opinions of other players

3) manipulation to deliberately distort the outcome by betting not on actual probability, but to influence the opinions of others

the prediction market is an inefficient market, nothing more to add

[J Fitz @ifthebootfitz]

@JazzzStan49052 @Domahhhh @JeffSonnenfeld @Scaramucci @TIME Yea I kinda find it ironic the dude that has made 2.5+ mil off markets is so outgoing about the efficiency of markets… isn’t he the best example markets are inefficient and isn’t he happy about that? Obv they will get more efficient with time and what not, usual caveats…

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

I take the profit and close the position here - goal achieved

I'm going to stand aside for a while

#Polymarket #predictions #Election2024 #Trump #Kamala

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

Adding a $10'000 position at 22c for Trump
Total position now at $20,000

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

There's some movement here, too, but it's a little tentative - will see

#Polymarket #prediction

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

Adding a $10'000 position at 22c for Trump
Total position now at $20,000

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

It's the season of personalized trends
This time it's something feline

#BTC #ETH #SOL #MEMECOİNS #Memes #memecoinonsolana #Memcoins #MemeSuperCycle

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

Bought on spot:

MEW - 20'000$
PEPE - 20'000$

As a hedge in case the market is currently playing a double top

My main strategy remain defensive, and major part of capital i will place in December

[Evaluator @evaluatooor]

@honey_xbt This is not a parabolic alt season - I'm betting NO on ZIG rising at this double top

A season of individual stories