ExLocust

Ex-PE and event-driven hedgie

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@kab604 @thewritser @jefke00 The “irrevocable” commitments to vote for this deal lapse only 8% higher, so a counter-bid is very doable.

Come on Apax, don’t miss out on a gem for a dime… that’s less than you were willing to pay 6-8 months ago.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@kab604 @researchne89461 @thewritser @jefke00 Pine mgmt are surely rolling into the deal. They get rich by making their new owners rich ie helping PE to buy it cheap.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@thewritser @jefke00 @kab604 Perhaps they had to disclose because having approached several shareholders for “support letters” the leak-risk was getting high. Panel rules.
But I agree, it generally smells like an attempt to flush out other bidders. And it’s surprising that Ridgeview would agree to that.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@kingdomcapadv Then let’s hope it’s in the honoured Sellside tradition of writing what mgmt told him to!
Thank you very much.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@ClarkSquareCap @DerSouman Gungho has been weak recently too - is there news at parent I’ve not seen?

@TheAppInvestor any signal from Gravity’s recent downloads pretty please? You called the Q1 beat very well.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@MikeFritzell “Subject to market conditions”… as I suspect the share price is telling us. They were ready to dual-list when tariffs intervened, now mid-east airspace closes…

I hate the share issuance: institutions get a free hit at shorting HK line, buying it back in US at a discount.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@absreturnchaser @MarkKleinmanSky Ramsay: Aussie press says not looking at overseas any more (AFR chanticleer column from memory).
Agree with your others plus maybe Narayana still interested despite buying something else.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@absreturnchaser @MBdaytrading I read that. And original Spire response says triton and BP are AMONG. Then the extension simply says those two’s deadline (the only deadlines) has been extended. I don’t think Code requires them to discuss other bidders, but Spire could have chosen to do so had they wished.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@catapultcap @ItsProbablyLuck @kingdomcapadv Thank you sir. /madam, but FinTwit so who are we kidding!
9-10%: it’s a good reminder that serious expected returns are necessary to make the equity the right trade here. I think we’re getting them.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@dopamine_uptake Main shareholder has/had (I’m out of date) a blocking stake plus convertible debt and I believe could creep control without a proper premium, if they got confident in the outlook. (Because they are already through 29.9% and/or have a waiver)

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@kingdomcapadv Thanks.
It sounds like they are going to sell some peripheral assets too - said “nothing to announce today” or something. Probably not big, but if they can sell for a decent price to book or EV/EBITDA, even for their least-good stuff, it might help the stock a bit.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@ValueSituations Congratulations Conor, you deserve it.

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@rhomboid1MF FYI I couldn’t get the link to work

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@catapultcap 🤮

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

tariffs

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@choffstein Not for us Britpoors… give us an offshore, UCITS or ETF version please AQR!

[ExLocust @ex_locust]

@sam88990 Launching Friday, whatever that means - anyone know a ticker? It’s from Fivestar Asset Management Co, Japan specialists. Hunting takeovers of all kinds not just parent-child.