fdgy

“That which can be destroyed by truth...should be”

[fdgy @fdgy]

https://t.co/cgPKjFFZKP

[fdgy @fdgy]

@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/02TFeQ3Sq3

[fdgy @fdgy]

BTC has historically:

1) Broken below the 200 Day Average (Orange)

2) Rallied to return to it only to bounce off (Black)

3) Eventually Broken back above once the 200MA was much lower (Red)

I'm ready for BTC to trade below the 200 MA for at least 2-3 more months but I'm open to being wrong. 😂

Chart Details: BTC's Price and 200 day moving average by halving cycle on a log scale using the % of blocks completed as the X axis

[fdgy @fdgy]

BTC has historically:

1) Broken below the 200 Day Average (Orange)

2) Rallied to return to it only to bounce off (Black)

3) Eventually Broken back above once the 200MA was much lower (Red)

I'm ready for BTC to trade below the 200 MA for at least 2-3 more months but I'm open to being wrong. 😂

Chart Details: BTC's Price and 200 day moving average by halving cycle on a log scale using the % of blocks completed as the X axis

[fdgy @fdgy]

As I wrote back in December:

"My working thesis on BTC price remains simple: the 4-year halving cycle is intact until there is clear evidence that it isn’t."

I hope that all of "Super Cycle Bros" are helping people post collateral this morning to stop their longs from blowing up. 😂😂

Updated chart from that December post below...

[fdgy @fdgy]

https://t.co/cgPKjFFZKP

[fdgy @fdgy]

@lopp It's not supposed to be interesting.

It's supposed to work...and it does.

It worked when the last round of interesting things were super interesting and the round before that.

Now that all of those things are no longer interesting (or no longer exist)...it still works.

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

A window into the future:

Flexionics uses 14 MW of ASICS to help stabilize the grid of Sweden

They were called on 11,245 times last year. Yes, you read that right.

Already, 58% of their revenue comes from grid services (the rest through hashing)

[fdgy @fdgy]

@Pontifex https://t.co/8m0o8qnKca

[fdgy @fdgy]

I wonder if he’s ever asked AI if it is right or wrong for a wealthy, powerful and “sacred” worldwide institution to turn a blind eye to thousands of its trusted agents sodomizing generations of young boys?

I bet it would have a much better answer than all of the “human” priests/bishops/Popes who not only let it happen but covered it up while reading from their ancient fair tale book and wearing their stupid costumes.

[fdgy @fdgy]

I wonder if he’s ever asked AI if it is right or wrong for a wealthy, powerful and “sacred” worldwide institution to turn a blind eye to thousands of its trusted agents sodomizing generations of young boys?

I bet it would have a much better answer than all of the “human” priests/bishops/Popes who not only let it happen but covered it up while reading from their ancient fair tale book and wearing their stupid costumes.

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

Artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain, do not mature through relationships, and do not know from within what love, work, friendship or responsibility mean. Nor do they have a moral conscience, since they do not judge good and evil, grasp the ultimate meaning of situations, or bear responsibility for consequences. They may imitate or even simulate, but they do not understand what they produce, for they lack the affective, relational, and spiritual perspective through which human beings grow in wisdom. #MagnificaHumanitas

[Orange Book 🍊📖 @orangebook]

The wealthiest and luckiest children out there are those who have parents who are intellectually curious, emotionally mature, physically tireless and driven, mentally stable and secure, and spiritually optimistic and grateful to be alive.

[fdgy @fdgy]

“The heaviest chains we carry are the stories we refuse to examine.

True freedom isn’t collecting more beliefs, it’s having the courage to release the ones that no longer serve us.”

[Camus @newstart_2024]

Your brain comes pre-loaded with beliefs, and almost all of them are wrong.

Dr. Robert Lustig on Diary of a CEO:

You’re born with neural pathways already forming belief systems before you’ve had any real experience. Life either solidifies them or destroys them. Most of what you think you know about how the world works? Probably false.

The only way forward: Stay radically open. Question everything. That’s how you truly know yourself and where genuine happiness comes from.

The heaviest chains we carry are the stories we refuse to examine. True freedom isn’t collecting more beliefs, it’s having the courage to release the ones that no longer serve us.

In a world drowning in certainty and tribal echo chambers, the willingness to be wrong might be the rarest and most powerful form of intelligence.

What’s one deeply held belief you eventually realized was wrong, and how did dropping it change you?

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

There has never been an industry whose success has been determined by so few variables as Bitcoin mining

Hashrate
Bitcoin Price
Electricity Price
ASICS Price
Block reward (and fees)
Ancillary revenue

That's it

6 factors

Not in-store-spend
Not Customer conversion rates
Not market penetration
Not demographic data

And no sales and marketing campaign or customer outreach campaign will change this

You're at the mercy of 6 variables, 4 of which you have no control over, save a small bit of wiggle-room that you can create by negotiation in the case of ASICS price.

The only variables you can control is electricity price and ancillary revenue source. (More about this later)

For this reason, we can do something we've never been able to do for any industry ever

We can read the future non-speculatively, because it already exists today

In Europe, electricity prices are astronomically high. So much so, that it effectively simulates a future reality where the economics are similar to a US-based mining company one halving into the future (with half the block reward).

Yet, Bitcoin mining thrives in Europe: the most hostile electricity-price environment, regulatory, environment and tax environment in the world towards Bitcoin mining.

You'd never know it, because it happens mostly under the radar, and it is (legitimately) called "datacenters", "grid stabilization services", and "heat reuse" to avoid regulatory hostility and taxation hostility.

Bitcoin mining thrives here because of one factor alone: their ancillary revenue is very high compared to the rest of the world.

So high in fact that many European mining companies are more profitable than their US counterparts

This is why I have no fear about the future of Bitcoin mining

This is why discussions about security budget are redundant: Bitcoin doesn't need one
This is why we don't need to have speculative discussions about the direction of Bitcoin mining.

Europe already ran that simulation, and the data is in.

The future of Bitcoin mining is that it seeks out stranded energy at near zero marginal cost.

The future of Bitcoin mining is that it stabilizes grids and recycles heat as a primary revenue source, with the blockreward and fees being the by-product

The future of Bitcoin mining is that it solves hard problems the world desparately needs - keeping our grid safe and stable, making AI load flexible, reducing harmful methane pollution, stopping the wasteful practice of renewable energy curtailment in ways that benefit whole communities

The future of Bitcoin mining is that it is the usecase of Bitcoin that the world sees and embraces first.

[fdgy @fdgy]

Choose wisely….

[Daniel @growing_daniel]

The two future jobs are anthropic employee and sex worker servicing anthropic employees

[Orange Book 🍊📖 @orangebook]

Ironically, the more "successful" you get by doing things your own way, the more "successful people" you're gonna meet who will tell you how you should do things their way instead, and if you are the kind of person who always secretly sought external validation and status through association, you will slowly lose track of your authenticity and of who you were meant to become, you will become a shadow of your former self, someone who has it all on paper but who also somehow struggles to feel content, loved, and happy.

[Jarvis @jarvis_best]

Don’t think of it as losing a Congressman.

Think of it as gaining a podcaster.

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

I just got back from the Bitcoin Energy Summit in Lisbon and I have a question that won't leave me alone.

First some context: Bitcoin mining is now stabilizing the grids of 7 nations, 4 agencies (including the Spanish Govt and the World's largest energy policy association) just called for more flexible demand being critical to the resilience of the grids of the future - and Bitcoin mining is the world's most flexible load resource by an order of magnitude.

So in light of this my question is this: why is 95% of the Bitcoin adoption conversation about Bitcoin-as-money when Bitcoin-as-energy is already deployed on grids across 3 continents?

Is it possible that energy is the Bitcoin usecase that paves the road for mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin in the West?

I've been in this space for four years now. When I started, the conversation was "bitcoin mining wastes energy." A group of Bitcoiners including @thetrocro, @jyn_urso and others changed that. Then it became "ok maybe it doesn't waste energy, but it's not useful." @gladstein, @jack and others changed that too.

But here's what I noticed in Lisbon. Three separate European organisations - the European Bitcoin Energy Association, Free Madeira, and the Institut National de Bitcoin in France - are all independently converging on the same conclusion.

@geyer_rachel, Chair of EBEA said energy is what will move the needle for Bitcoin in Europe. @andreloja at @FREEMadeiraOrg said energy is the most topical issue in Europe right now. Bastien Desteuque (@Proxy18387764), directeur général at @BitcoinPolicyFr said they're focusing on mining because France has spare nuclear capacity and that's where the biggest opportunity is.

Three organisations. Same conclusion.

And that's before you get to what's actually being built. In Sweden, a man I coach runs ASIC hardware that earns almost two-thirds of its revenue from frequency regulation - keeping the lights on, responding in seconds to the need of the grid operator, and helping to stabilize the grid an incredible 11,247 times last year alone. (Yes, you read that sentence right).

In Lisbon, I watched Kenji Tateiwa present a circular economy where bitcoin mining heat grows tropical fish and the CO2 gets converted to charcoal and micro diamonds. Bastian outlined how France's surplus nuclear energy could be absorbed by bitcoin mining by 2027.

And outside the West, from stabilizing the economy of Bhutan post-covid to helping save Virunga National Park in Africa - Bitcoin mining was behind both events and many more. This phenomenon is a global one.

The conversation has quietly moved from "does bitcoin mining help grids?" to "how many services can one machine provide?"

We've been thinking about this like monoculture - one machine, one function.

What I saw in Lisbon is permaculture. The same hardware doing frequency regulation, heat capture, Sats-minting ... and potentially in the near future - voltage regulation (something that would have prevented the 28 April 2025 Iberian Peninsular Blackout).

I talked to Bitcoin founders after the keynote who told me the energy thesis had opened their eyes. These are people who worked to advance Bitcoin payment infrastructure, and they hadn't fully grasped this.

Bitcoin solves a monetary problem the world is only beginning to understand. I'm more convinced of that than ever.

And ... as we wait for that revolution to be fully grasped, the energy revolution is already here - deployed, generating revenue, stabilizing grids. It might just be the thing that opens the door for everything else. What other Bitcoin use case is this far along ... at least in the West?

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

I can NOT overemphasize this enough:

DO NOT TRUST EMAILS
DO NOT TRUST PHONE CALLS
DO NOT TRUST SMS MESSAGES
DO NOT TRUST CHAT MESSAGES
DO NOT TRUST INCOMING COMMUNICATIONS!

Any message saying there is a security problem with an account that needs to be urgently fixed is a 🚩

[Justin Slaughter @JBSDC]

Right now, I think over a dozen Dems are in play. This markup went better than pretty much anyone expected (me included).

I’m upping my odds of passage to 60%.

[Alan Saunders @ASaunders_PGH]

The Pittsburgh Zoo is clearly in win-now mode.

[fdgy @fdgy]

@chamath Or require media outlets to mint the full unedited version as an NFT, allow AI agents to juxtapose the published version versus the full version and produce an authenticity score/rating for the edited version.

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@Dylanmadden https://t.co/qnQFDApP91

[fdgy @fdgy]

I wish I could “like” this 100 times.