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JALEN BRUNSON O25.5 Points -120 (ESPN)
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You can opt for safety here and take 25 at -145 on alts if you’d like. OG & Hart are out. The Pistons the Last 10 games are ranked 19th in total defense. Detroit in their last 10 games are allowing the 5th Most points in the Paint Non-Restricted Area. Brunson scores 24% of his points from this area. They also are 17th on mid range shots which ties directly into the Brunson’s offensive game.
File this under: Where are the points coming from tomorrow for New York?
The Knicks have 3 people who can score the basketball tomorrow prominently (Brunson, Mikal, KAT) and 3 role players with the ability to chip in (Deuce, Cam Payne, Shamet).
The Pistons are allowing the 2nd Most points to P+R ball handlers. Lead scorers have been getting busy against the Pistons lately:
-Lavine 43, DeRozan 37
-Bane 38
-Shai 33,
-Mitchell 38
-McCollum 40
-Herro 29
The Knicks have 3 games to lock down the 3 seed. Brunson has 26+ points in his last 7 against Detroit.
NBA🏀 Lock #1 (April. 10th)
Giannis Antetokunmpo o 25.5 Points
(-150 Fanatics)
80 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎‼️
❤️ THIS POST FOR ANOTHER PLAY
- Giannis is in a prime smash spot vs the Pelicans — a team that’s been getting cooked by power forwards and especially by players who dominate the restricted area, which just so happens to be Giannis’ entire playground.
- He’s cleared his line in 80% of his last 5 and 10, averaging 32 PPG over that stretch while leading the Bucks' charge toward better playoff positioning. Even if there's blowout risk, Giannis can cover most of this in the first half — he’s done it countless times this season.
- The Pelicans rank bottom 3 in the league vs PF scoring, and it doesn’t get much better in recent form: bottom 7 over their last 5 and 10, and dead last in away games. On top of that, they’ve been giving up a ton of free throws to PFs, where Giannis is averaging 9 FTM per game — a major bonus.
Recent PFs vs the Pels:
- Kawhi Leonard: 28 Points
- LeBron James: 27 Points
- Julius Randle: 20 Points
- Jonathan Kuminga: 16 Points
- This matchup lines up perfectly with Giannis’ strengths: rim pressure, transition buckets, and foul-drawing. Combine that with the stakes of the game and his current form, and Giannis is in a great spot to cash us out — possibly by halftime.
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#NBA April 10th (Play #1)
🚨THIS IS TOO LOW🚨
🌟D DANIELS - OVER 3.5 ASSISTS
🏷️(-135)
📚(BET365)
🎮(HAWKS @ NETS)
LEAVE A ❤️ IF TAILING!
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7/14 on potentials against the Nets earlier this season!
Basically facing a g league team so numbers don’t matter too much here..
Daniels has seen 7+ potentials in his L20 games and has gone OVER this line in 16/21 games on the road without Jalen Johnson this season!
When Daniels has had 7+ potentials, he’s gone OVER this line in 21/26 road games this season..
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Just too low with Daniels being the 2nd primary ball handler behind Trae Young..
The Hawks are trying to paint their top 8 spot!
This win matters a TON for the Hawks in this one..
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Ja Wick Will Shoot Dimes!🍽
Ja Morant o6.5 Assists
1.95/-105/ESPN | 1 Unit
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- Absolute must-win game for both teams. Memphis fighting to stay out of the Play-Ins, Minnesota trying to escape them.
- Minnesota have strong on-ball defenders they can throw at Ja, namely Ant and McDaniels — but it’s likely Ant who gets the assignment.
- Morant is over this line in 60% of games this year. What really stands out though are his wild home vs. away splits.
- At home he’s over in 74% averaging 8 assists on 12.7 potentials (63%). On the road? Just 43% hit rate averaging 6.5 assists on 11.8 potentials (55%).
- Since Jenkins got fired he’s averaging 6.4 assists on 12.4 potentials — but that’s heavily dragged down by his game vs Miami. Remove that and he’s up to 14 potentials a night.
- Minnesota over the last 30 days have been elite at limiting PG scoring — 4th least points allowed. But it comes at the cost of giving up dimes. They’re allowing the 9th most assists to PGs, and 5th most over the last 14 days.
- Some recent assist lines vs Minnesota: KPJ (5), Butler (8), Westbrook (7), Schroder (11), Haliburton (11), Alvarado (6), McConnell (13), Murray (8), CP3 (7), Mitchell (10).
- They rank 11th in assists allowed at the rim, which is where Ja lives. His hit rate jumps to 66.67% vs teams not in the top 10 there.
- At home against teams not in the top 10 he is over in 86.7% of games this year.
- Morant has faced them twice this year — 4 and 7 assists, both on 11 potentials. But historically he’s cooked them at home — over in 8 straight home games vs the Wolves.
- Wells is OUT for the season. If he gets replaced by Williams as BBM is projecting, Ja’s Per36 assists tick up from 8.75 to 9.37. If Pippen starts and they move Bane to the 3 his Per36 assists number increases further to 9.82.
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NBA Thursday Prop #3🏀
Naz Reid O 12.5 Points (-105)
- Great spot-up matchup for Naz against a Memphis team that loves to pack the paint on drives. Going back and watching the film from these two teams' last meetup, the Grizzlies' defensive scheme for ANT was clear: double on drives and allow lesser players to beat you, which left Naz with some fantastic looks from 3.
- 30% of Naz's points this season have come on spot-up jumpers. Over the Grizzlies' last 4 games (post-Taylor Jenkins firing), they have allowed the third most C&S FGAs in the league at the second-highest frequency.
- With Edey seeing a larger role under this new Grizzlies coaching regime, Naz's size could be needed on JJJ. Even without that, he's seen 24+ minutes in pretty much all non-blowout wins this season with a fully healthy Wolves roster.
- Obviously, this is a HUGE matchup for seeding in the West, and if Naz gets it going tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 30+ minutes out of him.
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