Joshua B. Miller

A/Prof, Econ, U. Melbourne (@unimelb), Australia | behavioral/experimental economics | stat/exp methods | 🇺🇸 OAK→SBA→MSP→MXP→SFO/ALC→MEL 🇦🇺

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

Haven't logged into Twitter in over a year. Tweeting to keep the account active, just in case.

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian ... which is that more shooters are directionally "hot" than you would expect by chance. Finding P(Proportion(H|H)<p) is critical for establishing the chance baseline used in that basic test. /end

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian Yeah, it's connected, but not equivalent. It is related to the incorrect assumptions used to test the hot hand. It focuses on one of the asymmetric features of the sampling distribution for Prop(H|H). It is a critical fact we leverage for one of our initial results.... /1

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@NoahJSnyder "any given sequence" is a loose way of saying "a sequence selected at random"

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

Haven't been on Twitter for a good few years

Nice problem. How does it connect to the hot hand?

Alice wins ⟺ #HH < #HT
⟺ #HH + #HH < #HH + #HT
⟺ #HH/(#HH + #HT) < 1/2
⟺ Proportion(H|H) < 1/2

... 🧵/1 (ht: @benleo_econ in Melbourne)

[Daniel Litt @littmath]

The correct answer is “Bob.” Congrats to the 10% who got it right — those few brave dreamers.

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@dggoldst @littmath yup. We watched a video of Craig Hodges, who obviously had the hot hand. GVT's stat wasn't giving much, which made not sense. So we tested their stat on coin flips.

Ps. just posted here: https://t.co/25PXLmKc5b

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

Haven't been on Twitter for a good few years

Nice problem. How does it connect to the hot hand?

Alice wins ⟺ #HH < #HT
⟺ #HH + #HH < #HH + #HT
⟺ #HH/(#HH + #HT) < 1/2
⟺ Proportion(H|H) < 1/2

... 🧵/1 (ht: @benleo_econ in Melbourne)

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@pontific8 "In October, Musk hinted that accounts that had been dormant for more than a year might also be at risk."

I lost all my Hotmail contacts/messages this way back in the day.

https://t.co/bVelt3Hw6x

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

Haven't logged into Twitter in over a year. Tweeting to keep the account active, just in case.

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@pontific8 @emollick sweet! that's @GM_Invernizzi 's master's thesis!

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@LonesSmith unironically, I mean (like Ert Malley)

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

One of the best stories from Australia I have heard so far

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

The Ern Malley hoax is wild

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@LonesSmith indeed, never too late for that work to become a classic (ironically)

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

an archived interview with the creators: https://t.co/gFgFqPELvB

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

a clip from: https://t.co/UAGrzJnL9e

there is a beauty and truth in this troll. Applies more broadly

[Florian Ederer @florianederer]

Over the past few days I've seen a lot of economists tweet about Arlotti's decision. However, none of them really explained what the expected outcomes of either choice, in particular that of remaining a soccer pro, were.

A quick explainer 🧵👇

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

nice point, and fascinating thread

[Kevin Mitchell @WiringTheBrain]

@philipcball @Richvn @QuantaMagazine I think a lot of work in genetics, molecular and cell biology and biochemistry has used artificial manipulations to force strong responses from the system that make things look more specific and linear than they really are...

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

crypto solves the dynasty problem

[Joshua B. Miller @jben0]

@koenfucius @econnaturalist agree; not obvious relative to their level of attention

[Jonathan Hersh @jonathanhersh]

Fresh out of Man Sci today, an article by @ravivmg on women in tech. Raviv matches candidates self reported programming skills to observed programmings skills from open source code to see how self-reported skills vary from observed skills.

You know where this is going...

[César A. Hidalgo @cesifoti]

After advising PhD & Master students for over a decade, there is one thing I find most students need to unlearn: the half-ass work mentality acquired during years of tests and homework. Let me explain (thread 🧵). 1/N #AcademicTwitter