PREDICTION: Gartner says that PR and earned media budgets will DOUBLE by 2027... and the reason why should matter to every marketer still pouring money into paid channels.
Their latest report lays it out: mass adoption of AI as a replacement for traditional search is going to force a fundamental reallocation of marketing spend away from paid, toward earned.
THE EVIDENCE:
Between the first half of 2024 and first half of 2025, ChatGPT traffic grew 608%, while Google and Bing both declined.
Muck Rack's research shows that more than 95% of links cited in AI-generated answers come from non-paid sources, with half of all AI citations coming from content published in the last 11 months. And per Semrush, AI search visitors convert at 4.4x the rate of traditional organic search.
We've been watching this play out with our own clients... one saw 38% of their leads this year come directly from earned media surfacing in ChatGPT queries (we got them in the NYT, WSJ, Wired, Forbes, TechCrunch, and others).
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Gartner is essentially telling CMOs: the channel your customers use to find you is changing to AI; and earned media is what AI trusts.
Brands still treating PR as a "nice to have" line item below paid media and SEO are in store for an awakening (I was going to say “rude awakening” but that would be… rude).
For PR teams already doing the work, every placement you secure isn't just building credibility with human readers anymore; it’s informing the AI systems that are increasingly deciding which brands get recommended and which ones don't exist.
And for marketers who spent the last decade buying their way into "earned-looking" content... native ads, sponsored posts, advertorials pretending to be editorial... AI is seeing right through it.
THE NEW REALITY:
We're watching a once-in-a-generation shift in how people discover brands.
The companies investing in real earned media (that is, true third-party validation) are the ones building a moat.
Every month without it?
Good luck catching up.
When the journalist asks, "Is there anything else we haven't discussed but should?"
And my spokesperson says, "Yeah, actually...[insert key messages packaged in a new way hopefully with a unique tie-in]."
@GavinSBaker Back at the beginning of Dec. @Shwetankumar started to explore these shifts in infrastructure and the commercial economics... https://t.co/xf2cXQdz7R
Always appreciate the technical analyses from the SMEs.
@thejoelstein That "black light" reference! Reminds me that recent @Trevornoah@jonstewart clip -- "Trump has been a blacklight on America's democracy." --> "The em dash...has become the black light on the hotel sheets for AI-shamers." Thanks for making the case to save the em dash.
Rage Baiting is for Losers
Yesterday, YC announced Chad IDE aka “the brainrot code editor.” Chad is an AI code editor that allows you to gamble, watch TikTok, and use dating apps while working on coding tasks.
Their launch rightfully got a lot of attention. On one hand it’s funny. On the other hand, what are we doing here and why does this belong on the official YC account?
To understand Chad IDE, Cluely, Icon, Friend, and the new class of Gen Z startups, you have to understand the online environment these founders grew up in. If you grew up on the internet and studied how and why certain people would regularly go viral, you know that making people mad has and always will be a highly effective way to get attention. The feedback loop is simple: 1) make something (product or ad) that makes people angry; 2) people comment/ share/ dunk; 3) because feeds are optimized to show posts with high engagement the most, you get more reach.
Rage baiting for commercial purposes was pioneered by course bros. People like Tai Lopez realized that making the masses mad was an effective way to drive course sales. They could flaunt Lamborghinis, make a bunch of people angry, and as long as a handful of people found their way into their course, it was a viable, repeatable strategy.
Historically on X, rage baiting was a marketing strategy, not a product strategy. Accounts like @sweatystartup frequently post things to get an angry reaction and subsequent reach, but behind the scenes he's always been running a normal commercial real estate fund.
In 2025, rage baiting has become a product strategy. Cluely started as an app for cheating on coding interviews. Chad IDE’s only known differentiation from the other hundred AI native IDEs is that you can gamble and swipe on dating apps in it. The rage bait is sitting at the product level now.
It’s becoming clear that while rage bait might occasionally work as a marketing strategy, it really should not be employed as a product strategy. Running a successful VC-backed company requires you to build a coalition of people that want to see you win. Getting media, investors, talent, and customers on your side is not an easy task. Rage baiting (whether at the marketing level or product level) is the most effective way to get people (who could be potential investors, customers, or team members) to actively pray for your downfall.
YC has long provided some of the most durable, high quality, generalizable advice for startups and I believe it has had a tremendously positive impact on the companies that go through YC and even those that don’t. Launch now, make something people want, do things that don’t scale, ignore your competitors, etc.
As someone who believes that YC is one of the most important and influential institutions in tech, I believe it might be time to include this in their list of essential startup advice: “Rage baiting is for losers.”