Krazysaurus

There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

“If you truly love life, don’t waste time because time is what life is made of.” - Bruce Lee

[Barefoot Pregnant @usuallypregnant]

Never forget ❤️

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

A simplified Bitcoin flow model:

It takes roughly 300,000 BTC of net buying to double the price.

Symmetrically, roughly 300,000 BTC of net selling cuts the price in half.

That’s the model.

Bull market:

Bitcoin went from roughly $30K when the ETF was announced to about $120K — a 4x.

Estimated institutional buying: ~1.2M BTC
Exceptional OG selling: ~600K BTC
Net buying: ~600K BTC

600K net buying = two doublings.
$30K → $60K → $120K.

Bear market:

Bitcoin went from roughly $120K to $60K.

Exceptional OG selling: ~600K BTC
Saylor/Strategy buying: ~300K BTC
Net selling: ~300K BTC

One halving.
$120K → $60K.

Simple model. Surprisingly good fit.

[KH @mc_khristina]

I don't know if any of us could have really uncovered it as you suggest (even with AI, especially in Japanese, come on!). I personally tried to dig into MetaPlanet management compensation (specifically Simon) as I did with other BTCTCs and I kept running into walls with the Japan's disclosure regime being significantly LESS transparent than the US and I never uncovered this management "incentive" / "tax.

I've even wondered and have thought that MetaPlanet may have moved forward with the US ADR vs. up-listing off OTC to Nasdaq to specifically avoid having to be more transparent w. their disclosures. $MPJPY is a level 1 ADR which is the the lowest tier of ADR compliance. This means MetaPlanet just needs to furnish whatever disclosure it already publishes in its home market (Japan) to the SEC ... it doesn't have to reconcile to US GAAP, doesn't have to follow SEC proxy rules, and doesn't have to produce a Summary Compensation Table.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

The full effect of the instrument was disclosed in the numbers but the instrument itself was not.

Shareholders only expressed strong feedback because we found out a few weeks ago. People would have complained in 2024 if they knew it existed.

It was issued in 2022 in the Red Planet days then surely it should be cancelled from when the company pivoted to a dilution model in 2024. Why stop now if there is no problem with it?

Doubling down is the wrong move in my opinion. $600 million in compensation over 2 years is not right. This was up to over $3 billion last year at the highs.

Nvidia CEO earned $49 million in 2025 and will be paid $37 million in 2026. This is the largest company in the world.

[KH @mc_khristina]

Be very careful who you follow▪️I recently read a VERY interesting and well-written substack article by @Vivemacr0. The entire article is worth the read, but I thought this particular excerpt that analyzed tweet level data from over 29K financial influencers on StockTwits was particularly fascinating and worth highlighting... "Only 28% showed genuine skill, generating 2.6% monthly abnormal returns. 16% were unskilled, with no effect either way. The MAJORITY, 56%, were what the authors call antiskilled: following their advice produced negative 2.3% monthly abnormal returns. Here is the part worth reading twice. The antiskilled accounts had more followers and more influence on retail trading than the skilled ones. They posted more often, posted more optimistically, and their optimism systematically arrived just before prices reversed."

https://t.co/W5a7JA2ep4

[Tim Ferriss @tferriss]

Slow down and remember this:

Most things make no difference.

Being busy is a form of laziness—lazy thinking and indiscriminate action.

Being overwhelmed is often as unproductive as doing nothing, and is far more unpleasant.

Being selective—doing less—is the path of the productive.

Focus on the important few and ignore the rest.

[Peter Kazanjy @Kazanjy]

North of 50% of all "employment growth" in California and New York is fake home care fraud.

[Jessy Gilger, CFP @idahohodl]

“I have more than 19 million shares of the equity so I feel your pain.”

Simultaneously so true and so out of touch at the same time.

Michael Saylor is down billions on paper losses (hurts), but Rob is worried about not being able to send his kids to school (hurts different).

There is no better financial superpower than to deeply understand the game you are playing and not play someone else’s game.

[​𝐥𝐲𝐫𝐚 @sunnkssdseraph]

So friedrich nietzsche has a quote, and it's arguably one of the most brilliant things I've ever heard. And I think you need to hear it. It goes like this, "most people do not think, they repeat, they adopt the opinions of those around them, wear them like borrowed clothes and call it a worldview. And when you dare to think for yourself, really think, they will not admire you for it, they will resent you because your refusal to conform is a mirror they did not ask to look into. The unexamined man does not hate you because you are wrong. He hates you because somewhere beneath the noise he suspects you might be right."

[nic carter @nic_carter]

What people don’t understand is that NY and CA have industrialized “carefare” - effectively Medicaid funded welfare. It’s all ultimately paid for by the federal taxpayer, since these states will go bk and will have to be bailed out.

The program is a way to pay affinity client groups - immigrants, low earners, reliable D voters - for doing ~nothing. It’s a glorified welfare scheme being laundered through Medicaid. This is happening because no one wants to vote against “more healthcare”. Healthcare is good, right?

It’s not “fraud” per se because the programs growing to absolutely massive scale is the point; the insane amounts of grift are completely legitimate and acceptable under the terms of the scheme. It’s just a way to plunder the NY/CA taxpayer and the federal taxpayer in the end. No one has figured it out yet but it’s basically a massive cash for votes scheme

It’s the kind of stuff that will eventually completely bankrupt the country, not just blue states. Once you see it, you will never unsee

[Ron Rule @ronrule]

In 2001 George W Bush proposed a partial privatization plan for Social Security so you could put 10% of your SS contribution into the markets.

People rejected this.

We can now see that if it had passed, the 10% that went into the markets would have outperformed the 90% the government managed, the program would be solvent, and the average SS recipient would be receiving 2X what they currently receive.

The worst bet you’ll ever make is betting on government.

[Aaron Bennett @Aaronbennett]

This one chart destroyed a generation of crypto investors.

[Pledditor @Pledditor]

Reminder: don't search your own wallet address in a block explorer. They log your IP and sell that data to @chainalysis, who gives it to government authorities

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

@AutismCapital It is unlikely that Fable was used to find this exploit because of rate limits, API logging, etc.

The hackers could’ve used any of the strong 2026 LLMs.

But this is why export controls were put in place for frontier models. The genie is out of the bottle now.

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

My old boss used to call him “King Griffin”

[Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg]

But Citadel’s commitment to grave-dancing — from Enron, amaranth and Sowood back in the day to Situational Awareness — is AAA (outlook stable). @CliffordAsness once wittily summed up what it’s like to get a call from Ken Griffin when the margin call wolves are howling.

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

@DelB0yTr0tter @MBAeconomics1 I see. Thanks for going the extra mile.

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

@DelB0yTr0tter @MBAeconomics1 Including SILJ?

[Charles Maddock @charles_maddock]

voice-to-text has gone too far

[Climb That Ladder @ActuallyClimber]

After watching dividend investor content for years, I recently decided to stop trying to beat the market and protect my early retirement. Almost no professionals beat the market on a 10 year timeframe, and I’ve done so but don’t expect to be able to do that forever and it isn’t worth the risk now. Stress also isn’t worth it despite how fun it can be.

Currently hold 81720 shares of $SCHD. Plan on growing this further. Aiming for 100,000 shares later this year. I’m living off the dividends but able to buy more as I eventually sell a home and very slowly convert my AMD into SCHD. No debt either.

Right now, the end game would be between 100,000 and 150,000 shares and if I somehow have enough to buy more, I’d likely go VOO or VTI or even QQQ or SCHG with that portion. I know I’m in a unique position and grateful for it every day.

[Krazysaurus @krazysaurus]

@market2kk Valid point. In a severe BTC crash, a massive put assignments can deplete cash in the income portfolio. Thereby creating liquidity and timing pressure.

Even if it’s not a rapid crash, a prolonged low-vol BTC environment can sharply reduce option premiums.

[Derek Trotter @DelB0yTr0tter]

that is a great outcome for you and everyone else who have profited from this IPO. Congratulations. I'm not sure what else I can add to what I have said about this already. This is a liquidity event. The fact that the the entire rule book was changed purely to allow insiders to sell as much as 20% and if 30% above the IPO price, an additional 10% becomes eligible tells the story about the price action you are seeing. I could of course be wrong (often am), but the victory laps should really be scheduled for September - October, after the insiders have dumped their stock and by which time the tradable float is expected to reach 58%.