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Can we all agree that “frontier labs are lying about AI safety to pump their IPOs, capture the regulators, and make more money” is a conspiracy theory at this point?
For it to be true, Sam, Dario, Demis, and Elon all have to be lying, along with a big chunk of their execs, chief scientists, and resigning employees.
It also asks you to believe the labs volunteered for much heavier scrutiny that slows them down in the middle of the biggest ARR growth run in the history of capitalism with no signs of slowing down … because they want to make more money by inventing regulatory hurdles that only they can clear(?).
And OpenAI has now said it would even be willing to delay its own IPO over safety concerns - i.e. put off (maybe risk entirely) the biggest liquidity event ever in Silicon Valley. The conspiracy requires us to believe that they’re doing that to make more money(?)
Elon agrees with Dario; i.e. the guy who ran D.O.G.E is *asking for more scrutiny and regulation*. And we're supposed to believe that's because he thinks it will help his company succeed(?)
A much simpler explanation at this point: they think the risk is real.
If you think that a letter from 25 Field Medalists is about “cope” or keeping their jobs, you are mistaken.
It is about beauty and insight and the fear that brute force cherry picking with mostly incomprehensible proofs (perhaps combined with a bit of IP theft) is going to undermine the field that they love, in the same way that slop has undermined the joy in other fields.
Terence Tao has been quite clear about this in a series of elegant Mathstodon posts (which I have excerpted here and in my Substack) over the last several days.
I advise anyone unclear about the above to read his posts (or my excerpts) to get context.