Mike Arluck

Damn right I love the life I live 'cause I went from negative to positive. Mostly a lurker here.

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@wolfejosh @NYPDPC It's funny, I was wondering just yday if he might have been jawboned by the fed govt or Albany (with funding threats?) to keep her on when he took office. If that approximates the truth, he'll have a hard time firing her. And I sure hope that he can't/won't.

[Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh]

National hero. NYC hero. Thank you @NYPDPC

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@LIRR @MTA @GovKathyHochul

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

With the impact of AI on the jobs of LIRR's riders, the railroad strikers couldn't pick a more tone deaf moment for this. In the private sector, the dispute would be resolved by letting-go of more "ticket-puncher" positions each day until the union caves.

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

With the impact of AI on the jobs of LIRR's riders, the railroad strikers couldn't pick a more tone deaf moment for this. In the private sector, the dispute would be resolved by letting-go of more "ticket-puncher" positions each day until the union caves.

[Fast Company @FastCompany]

LIRR strike update: New York City faces historic travel disruptions as workweek begins. Here’s the latest https://t.co/zaiEIRAUpS

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

Great idea. What say you @gerovich @DylanLeClair ?

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

Here's a thought.

Until now, #Metaplanet has monetized downside Bitcoin volatility through writing puts, and upside volatility through covered calls.

Why not monetize downside equity volatility through put writing, as an indirect and more accretive way to initiate the buyback program, all while generating income -> further improving the case (and div paying sustainability) for prefs.

If assignment occurs, they retire shares at Accretion Multiple > 1.

Here's why they should — and what it would look like.

1/
The current Metaplanet playbook has worked predominantly on one engine: issue at premium.

That works when mNAV > 1 (not exactly, but let's keep it simple for illustrative purposes).

But this playbook has a missing leg.

2/
An open-market buyback is somewhat reactive, and once the shot is fired, they risk not having much dry powder or capacity to continue if things get worse. Not to mention, it doesn't generate income while waiting.

Writing puts is the more elegant version, and feeds directly into what they are already building:

→ Generate premium income while you wait → set disciplined strikes at sub-NAV levels → implicit floor signaling → continued vol-monetization under all circumstances

3/
Here's an example of how it would work (figures are illustrative only)

The structure:
An OTC private placement of short puts.

Terms:
• Strike: 75-85% of simple NAV per share at trade • Tenor: 6 months • Size: ~3% of float per tranche • Settlement: physical • Trigger: only fires when 20-day VWAP mNAV ≤ 1.05x

Pricing:
MP realized vol has run 80-130% annualized in active windows. A 6-month, 20% OTM put at IV ~100% prices around 12-15% of strike.

On a 3% float tranche: roughly $25-45M in upfront premium. All of it converts to BTC on trade date (~310-560 BTC at current prices).

4/
Now the funding piece.
MP has ~$253M untapped on the BTC-collateralized credit facility.
This is latent capacity, while they remain under-leveraged at ~14% amplification.

Assignment, if it occurs, gets funded from this facility.

5/
Here's what the program accomplishes:

→ Premium income ($25-45M → BTC → Contingent float reduction → BTC-per-share accretion in both legs → Amplification ratio expands (BTC up, share count flat-or-down)
Income in upside. Income in downside.

6/
This also flips the "constant dilution" narrative on its head. In sub-NAV regimes, they are concentrating shares while growing BTC and BTC/share.

The model becomes symmetric. Food for thought.
$MPJPY $MTPLF

[dwidoo @dwidoo7]

@thebtcpharaoh Same conclusion, the best way to prove Japan regulator they can sustain the prefs is to do it elsewhere. Now how will they differentiate themselves from Strive?

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

So funny that for California governor, the Democratic Socialists of America endorsed billionaire Tom Steyer, whose resume includes Stanford MBA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, private-equity, and hedge-fund founder whose firm invested in private prisons and coal.

[Chris Powers @fortworthchris]

Apparently ~160 people in Austin, TX may make $100M+ from the SpaceX IPO. 12 will clear $1B.

Don't sleep on Austin - that's a lot of capital formation, very quickly.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The confounding factor is that virtually every big company is overstaffed by 2-4x and has been for decades. AI is the catalyst/excuse to finally fix that. Of course nobody wants to say this out loud.

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@RoaringRagnar Interested!

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Boomers bought a house on one income.

You can't buy a house on two.

Same country. Same labor. Same hours.

Different money.

Now ask yourself who took it.

Gold used to back the dollar until 1971.

Now they can print as much money as they want.

This event is what caused the end of single-worker households and the collapse of our birthrates.

We need to fix the money to fix civilization.

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@Giovann35084111 This is very well-written and clear; thanks for sharing it!

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@johnarnold Appreciate you elevating these kinds of systemic issues into the public discourse. The medical-industrial complex can be scary to stand up to for many Americans. Speaking of, what do you think of what @JoinCrowdHealth is doing?

[CrowdHealth @JoinCrowdHealth]

@SydneyLWatson We can probably get it significantly lower Dr Watson. We’d be happy to do it for you pro bono.

[Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) @UncleDividends]

Hi everyone, the public comment closes on May 7.

I urge you to join this coalition letter urging JPXI to reconsider. The link is provided by BitcoinForCorporations. Thank you!

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@Pledditor @metapuramaniac That is like saying a bank that earns money by lending out deposits shouldn't be able to count that as real revenue.

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@thebtcpharaoh Same. Lmk if you get that passcode!

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@thebtcpharaoh did you manage to catch this?

[Billy ₿oone @thebillyboone]

Tonight I’m hosting The Bitcoin Mining Playbook with @simpleminingio and @Metaplanet

We’ll be covering:
• Japan Bitcoin Future Forum recap
• Bitcoin macro environment
• Why Bitcoin mining matters for investors
• How hosted mining actually works
• Live miner giveaway + Q&A

If you’re interested in Bitcoin, macro, or mining economics, this will be a good one.

See you there

[Mike Arluck @marluck]

@btc_overflow Does anyone know the remaining steps of the approval process, and the time gap between "approval" and actual listing?

[Dan Graca @DanGraca]

Last time the Mets lost 12 in a row (2002), the Jets won the AFC East. So there's that at least.......