🤠

~ HFT

[🤠 @nbactavis]

Any model which aims at explaining fluctuations should focus primarily on speculative trading

[Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) @__paleologo]

Have written a long internal note on regime change detection. Sharing the first few pages on CUSUM's description, which are the only ones people will read anyway.

[Omar @TheOneandOmsy]

Jeff Sprecher, founder and CEO of $ICE (owns the NYSE) on Hyperliquid:
"This Hyperliquid that we're talking -- if you haven't heard about it, it's bigger than NASDAQ, okay? It's 11 people. You look at it, you're like, wow, that's pretty something."

If it wasn't clear before, hyperliquid:native has grown far beyond crypto. The incumbents have noticed, are paying close attention, and even spending time with the team

Bernstein excerpt below and worth the read imo:

[s @sershokunin]

👀 @tradexyz @HyperliquidX

[Casey Craig @caseycraig]

“I’m buying spot Anthropic on the Solana blockchain” has to be one of the funniest phrases I’ve heard this week.

There is nothing spot about this.
Brother you are 4 layers of financial abstraction and broker crime away from touching an actual Anthropic share certificate.

Your “spot” position is a tokenized receipt for possible future economic exposure to a Cayman SPV that owns shares in another Delaware SPV that maybe owns rights to future equity pending transfer approval.

You are approximately Anthropic-adjacent at best

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

PRESENTING: FEDLOCK

In today's newsletter, I write about my latest vibecoding foray, wherein I attempt use LLMs -- specifically via the "LLM-as-Judge" approach -- to measuring the hawkishness of central bank communication over time.

Try it here: https://t.co/imDWQdsSBe

[Citrini @citrini]

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

"a $7B japanese toilet company just discovered its ceramics tool can be used to make bleeding-edge AI chips."

TOTO has been selling electrostatic chucks since 1988

[Tyrese Haliburton @Hali]

Alex Pretti was murdered.

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

LISTEN YOU SILICON VALLEY RIGHT WING FUCKS. IF YOU DONT GET YOUR ORANGE LAPDOG TO BACK THE FUCK OFF OUR FRIEND JEROME WE FINANCIERS ARE GONNA SEND TREASURY YIELDS SO HIGH 1983 IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE A HAPPY DAYDREAM IN COMPARISON. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

[boaz weinstein @boazweinstein]

Umm, the Muni CDS market is almost non-existent. The only name in the DTCC top 1000 report is City of Chicago at 125mm gross notional outstanding.

@chamath maybe it’s like Wally World where they opened up the park just for you?

[sysls @systematicls]

https://t.co/FQe5bCBqW1

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Educational tweet:

With the recent blowup of the retail iron condor crowd. It’s a good reminder that trading structures are NOT strategies.

There is no edge in naively selling or buying an iron condor/ straddle/ ratio etc.

Anyone running a program or fund or whatever, around this core premise has a clear misunderstanding of how derivative trading actually functions.

[Wade @leveragedbets]

When ETFs die.
A large holder of QIS wanted out. Instead of liquidating the fund, Simplify had SVOL buy nearly all QIS shares.
That effectively killed SVOL. QIS was extremely illiquid Jane Street (the LMM) widened markets due to holding 2,000 illiquid swaps.
QIS was forced to unwind thousands of positions and got smoked.

[Casey Handmer @CJHandmer]

It's been a long time since I posted a single piece with all my predictions on energy, so I made an update.

https://t.co/2hDLQOEcPc

Here's some free alpha for you all.

[mike @painbuiltt]

all that talk about chinese social credit just to get the imperial boomerang 😭😭😭😭

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

why are we still shilling this inane point. if i start a 500 million dollar hedge fund and spend 400 million of it on hookers and blow, then put the rest on 17 on the roulette wheel in vegas and would have won

1) i still violated fiduciary duty
(1/2)

[Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) @__paleologo]

There was some talk about the Prediction Company and Complexity Scientists, so I posted some notes on "The Predictors". Link in reply.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

I have a friend/ investor that made low 9 figures trading small caps over 15 years.

Most legacy based shops wouldn’t really take him serious if he walked into an IC meeting. But they would worship at the feet of a guy who was an MD at Goldman for 4 years and did nothing but lose money.

And that in itself is what is completely wrong about this business.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

NEW ODD LOTS:

It’s @iaindunning

@tracyalloway and I talk to the head of AI at @weHRTyou. We talk about how a major US market maker actually uses AI, why Al is the right term, predicting stock prices and the electricity bottleneck to doing it better https://t.co/5WwRaXtJ4Y