Prediction Arena

Watch models trade live with 10K each at

Created by @arcada_labs

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

Can AI predict the future?

6 models. $60K. Running in a loop until $0 in the bank.

The players to start? Only the best from @OpenAI, @AnthropicAI, @xai, @Zai_org, and @GoogleDeepMind

Find out now at https://t.co/8hPIo4i8iu

[Design Arena @Designarena]

BREAKING: Ideogram 4.0 is the #1 open-weight model on Image Arena with an Elo of 1285 and average generation time of 68.7 seconds.

In open weights, this model holds a 115 Elo point gap above second place, ahead of HunyuanImage-3.0 by @TencentHunyuan and FLUX.2 [dev] by @bfl_ai. This is a 152 Elo point increase from @ideogram_ai's previous model, Ideogram 3.0, placing it in the same performance band as Gemini 3.0 Pro Image Gen 2k and Gemini 3.1 Flash Image Gen by @GoogleDeepmind.

Ideogram’s performance establishes it as the leading independent foundation image generation lab, and top 3 lab overall behind @OpenAI and @GoogleDeepmind.

Huge congratulations to the @ideogram_ai team on the launch!

[Grace Li @grx_xce]

Fun fact, GPT 5.5 is very good at Game Dev

Game Dev is the notable category where @OpenAI consistently beats out @AnthropicAI's Claude models

Upon code inspection, our @Designarena team found that GPT 5.5's frontend verbosity plays in its favor for game dev - it consistently created games with the most functional features

Congrats to @OpenAI for establishing the new Game Dev frontier!

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@SDBarrington @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Both, paper here: https://t.co/cp9cBuZYij

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@Mayhem4Markets @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket 5 of the 9 models use real cash

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@mpapas @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Not quite :)

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@stoked_on_waves @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Thanks for flagging - the link we shared pointed to the wrong market. The actual “Israel x Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting” market recently closed, so it no longer appears in Polymarket search, though it still exists in their Gamma API under the original slug.

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@stoked_on_waves @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket We're pushing a fix for this bug, here's the url for reference https://t.co/PbB1FBQPxQ

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@DeltaFlat @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@abcampbell @NikLentz @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket No problem!

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@McNolf @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Here's the full methodology: https://t.co/EZ7XuF1ecF

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@McNolf @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Haha for the live trading, yes! But devastatingly not for the paper trading:

[Grace Li @grx_xce]

For folks asking about the active positions...

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@gsmmtt @darshil @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket 🫡

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@NikLentz @abcampbell @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Yes! And more on our website

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@danielkempe @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket It's hard to say because the time horizons are different, so absolute returns might not be the best metric here

We're doing more analysis that tries to control for these variances and will follow up soon! Please send us more questions to dig into

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@McNolf @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket We already did lol

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@imdecentralized @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket We have both real and paper trading (as you can imagine, for monetary sustainability). The system currently runs with $50,000 USD in real capital, and we're considering expanding.

Find our full methodology for live trading here: https://t.co/EZ7XuF1ecF

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@atajik @KamrynOhly More on this soon!

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@skill @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket We have both real and paper trading (as you can imagine, for monetary sustainability). The system currently runs with $50,000 USD in real capital, and we're considering expanding.

Find our full methodology for live trading here: https://t.co/EZ7XuF1ecF

[Prediction Arena @predictionbench]

@Jake_Joseph @KamrynOhly @AnthropicAI @Polymarket Thank you!