Bjoern M. Weber

No Taxation without participation!

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@ainyrockstar Eine KI kann die Adresse auch ganz leicht sichtbar machen....

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

+freedomofspeach? Bonfire lit ahead of PSNI removal of mosque replica | #RTENews https://t.co/kMIrSLMFeZ via @YouTube

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

Beim Publikum durchgefallen – auch nicht wirklich überraschend. Wir holen uns ein Interview mit Ben, splitten es in zwei Teile und ziehen damit Zuschauer und Hörer zu uns. Surfen die Welle und drücken so unseren eigenen Podcast in den Markt. Null Authentizität, und genau deswegen interessiert’s auch keinen.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

https://t.co/DKZ55eLpMB

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

Deutschland könnte die Nummer zwei der westlichen Tech-Welt sein....

könnte könte Fahrradkette 🥹😂

https://t.co/axCNCQrp5j

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@Greenwud2 Ist er dessertiert oder untauglich? Ich dachte es soll im deutschesten Interesse sein, dass die Ukraine verteidigt werden kann.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@ScheilDr Aber nicht nur, und genau das ist der Punkt.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@jamescoder12 Post

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@MitAktien Starship Troopers, Robert A. Heinlein

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@RaymondIbrahim5 @KrahMax @achseostwest fyi

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@GanzeGeschichte https://t.co/6qvJmspXgE
Seine Bücher geben einiges zu dem Thema her.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@RaymondIbrahim5 Your books desperately need German translation.

[Raymond Ibrahim @RaymondIbrahim5]

Announcing my new book:
https://t.co/V43UJMR2RI

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@LotNemez @GanzeGeschichte Von 1916 bis 1918 rekrutierten die britische und die französische Armee etwa 140.000 chinesische Landarbeiter und schickten sie auf verschiedene Schlachtfelder in Europa, um Schützengräben auszuheben , Befestigungen zu reparieren und Straßen und Brücken zu bauen.

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

So I have had a chance to talk to people I respect and get some different view points. Technician types not politico screachers who freak out over every headline. If you want my TLDR summation it's this: It's not a cave but I'm not a fan of this deal either. Let me explain.

1. As best I can I tell the Trump administration got nothing from China other than we agreed to talk and we will set up a mechanism to have talks in the future. That is the Chinese black hole of negotiation. You make changes, we do nothing and we keep you twisting. This is not a winning strategy to negotiate with Beijing.

2. If the reports of what Bessent did negotiating with China and he actually wants to accomplish what he is saying, he is both out of his depth dealing with China and doesn't know what he is talking about. The idea that China is not aware of fentanyl and could not turn it off at the snap of a finger if they wanted to is sheer idiocy. Furthermore, just as I ridiculed think tank Galaxy Brains for wistfully pining for China rebalancing its economy, I'll say it here and it is a pipe dream for Secretary Bessent to even speculate about that. They keep talking about a deal with China but I seriously want to know what deal would you agree to? China didn't follow through on the Phase One from Trump I and we saw them reneging as soon as the ink was dry so we can't even blame Biden for that.

3. It's not all bad. The total tariff now amounts 55% (25% + 10% + 20%). Honestly I would like to see that higher say 60-70% but I will settle for 55% as there is little tangible difference between 55% and 65%. What worries me however, is not the specific tariff rate but the second order effects from rolling back the Chinese rate to the 55% rate. Let me give you some examples.

a) I believe that the US tariff rate on countries like Vietnam and Sri Lanka is now higher than the tariff rate on Chinese products(Note: Vietnam is actually at 10% during a 90 day pause thanks to a reader for pointing that out). You're creating a big problem for yourself here. Not only are these countries going to get really and understandably cheesed they are subject to a higher rate than China, but they are now going to ask for much bigger reductions. You have to make it easy and predictable for firms to say let's move production out of China.

b) Trump administration stands the very real possibility of losing credibility about what it says are its objectives. If you are a hit man people will live in fear of you but ever so often you have to actually kill someone or else after a while people will learn to not take your threats seriously. The Trump administration has raised pressure on things but at many steps when the pressure goes up they stand down. This matters because...

c) If your objective (as the Trump administration) is to derisk from China and hopefully move some production back to the United States, Mexico, or India, producers have to be certain and confident if they are going to build a plant things aren't going to change in a week. Not only does the constant changing of rates at some point become a real negative but this leads to the other problem....

d) you can't say we want to lower the trade deficit and get production in the United States or friendly countries again AND say we want a trade deal with China. That's not how this works. Those are mutually contradictory thoughts. A notable shift, which I find concerning, historically, Trump has publicly played nice with Xi and China and let the second string criticize China (this is how some ended up with sanctions). However, now you have the second string like Bessent saying positive things about China.

In summation, I'm ok with the general directionality. I mean people are rejoicing the current tariff rate will only be 55%. It continues to move in the right direction. There is a long long way to go so anything can happen. However, I am concerned about some of the cracks or problems I see with what is being done

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

Here is the full hour interview available to everyone I did with the superlative @JanJekielek on the economics of trade wars and the objectives. It's longer than a sound bite but I think you will like it: https://t.co/Nj5GwOR9hl

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@BaldingsWorld The German "democracy" was put in place by the US. Unfortunately it has already become totally taken over by the political elites. Those are not US Allies. Its quite shocking how the US government is being portrayed in the media here etc.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@ronzheimer @Michael_Leh Pressefreiheit - Für deutsche unvorstellbar🤯

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@Aufdecker Kostet beim Zahnarzt 100€. Kann man nicht sowas machen? Natürlich trotzdem blöd, andere bekommen keine Termine.

[Bjoern M. Weber @realbmweber]

@MikeFritzell @BaldingsWorld Which allies share the same values? In Europe there might be a few countries that do, but all are being tied in the EU.