Thomas Risvik

Få det på!

[Thomas Risvik @risvik_thomas]

@Pigsapple113320 We go up one day, you know the drill📈📉

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/y8GUMjRDEj

[Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe]

The indefatigable genius, Craig Tindale, has done it once again with a deep-dive analysis on the supply crunch of the chemicals needed to make the world go round.

The situation the world finds itself in has never before been articulated as clearly as Craig has analysed it here… All those that care how our world is changing, with absurdly profound consequences, should IMMEDIATELY READ his analysis.

@ctindale explains how chemical reagents have overtaken geology as THE main bottleneck impacting the global supply chain of metals.

An unprecedented shock has been created in the supply of sulphur and sulphuric acid. Initially, this was caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz… and further exasperated by subsequent export restrictions imposed by other major exporters of sulphur and sulphuric acid as they protect thier own industries.

As Craig points out, sulphuric acid is essential in the production of critical metals, such as copper, nickel, cobalt, uranium and rare earths… He goes into detail on how the growing contraction in the supply of acid is already impacting the production of critical metals in Chile, Africa, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.

Not to be forgotten is that over 50% of the world’s sulphuric acid is used in the production of fertilizer. The supply shock is also having a significant impact on the security of food supply. Governments have a priority to ensure their populations have enough food to eat at a price they can afford to eat it at….leading to further export restrictions.

Craig forecasts:
1) vertical integration and “reagent security” will become essential to metals producers,
2) the supply of chemical reagents will be weaponized, and
3) technological substitution will accelerate as we seek alternatives to solve our dependency.

Craig’s incredibly insightful analysis even includes a handy Reagent Brittleness Index (RBI), which he artfully uses to create a Sulphur & Acid Supply Risk Dashboard for Critical Mining Assets.
Spoiler: Craig notes that the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC emerges as a mining operation least at risk to chemical supply shocks, as our new on-site copper smelter becomes a major sulphuric acid PRODUCER for the region.

We are genuinely alarmed by the consequences of the new reality the world finds itself in… take an hour out of your weekend and carefully read it for yourself.

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

Trump one month before the 2024 election: “Think of it - within one year you’re gonna have electric bills and energy bills and gasoline for your cars is going to be 50% cheaper than it is right now. That’s a big thing.”

[Stew Peters @realstewpeters]

MARCO RUBIO: “The goal of the war in Iran is now to return it to how it was before Trump started the war.”

Unreal.

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Either go for regime change, which means boots on the ground plus a Desert Shield-style buildup and coalition, politically impossible for now, or accept politically toxic, higher-for-longer oil prices globally.

Trump will choose the second path and try to massage prices lower, among others with a ban on petroleum product exports once August hits. He will try to externalise the pain onto foreign consumers, eventually with limited success. Oil is too global for that game.

Either way, the iron will be forged in Q3, when SPRs run thin and parts of Asia start scrambling for diesel and jet fuel. That’s when the real pressure begins.

Sadly, it has become blatantly obvious by now that the world will have to go through the full ordeal here, not escape it through some rational shortcut “deal.” Position accordingly.

[Thomas Risvik @risvik_thomas]

@jeffcomeau Yeeehaaaawww🤭

[Thomas Risvik @risvik_thomas]

@duediligenceguy Up today, down tommorow, you know the drill

[chris keefer @Dr_Keefer]

Multipolarity and a fracturing Uranium market Highlights from this week's subst@ck essay.

The standard supply-demand analysis of the uranium market operates at the global aggregate level: total pounds produced, total pounds consumed, projected deficit or surplus.

That framing was adequate for a world in which uranium flowed freely across borders toward whoever offered the best price and utilities had no preference for origin. That world is gone, and the aggregate framing now obscures more than it reveals.

The uranium market is splitting into two increasingly separate procurement spheres. On one side sit US, European, Japanese, and South Korean utilities buying uranium that can pass ESG screens, government security reviews, and shareholder scrutiny.

On the other sit Chinese state enterprises and Rosatom export clients building reactors and fueling them through supply chains largely invisible to western price reporting and largely inaccessible to western buyers. The question that matters for uranium investors is not whether there is enough uranium in the world.

There probably is. The question is whether there is enough in the western supply chain, and that is an increasingly different and more uncomfortable question.

China’s nuclear ambitions alone reframe the demand picture in ways the aggregate numbers do not capture. China currently operates around 62 reactors and has roughly 34 more under construction, with stated government targets pointing toward 150 GW of installed capacity by 2035, roughly triple today’s fleet.

That uranium demand is being served through a supply architecture running parallel to the western term market: bilateral offtake agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, African production assets acquired by Chinese state enterprises, and processing arrangements that often route material through Russian infrastructure.

None of this volume shows up in western spot or term prices as demand. It disappears from the pool of available western-origin supply without generating a visible price signal in the markets western investors watch.

The ownership map of global uranium production makes this dynamic more acute than the geography suggests. Kazatomprom is state-owned. Uranium One, which holds significant Kazakh production stakes, is owned by Rosatom.

CNNC controls Rössing in Namibia, with output largely committed to Chinese offtake, and Husab, also among Namibia’s larger producers, is similarly Chinese-controlled. Namibia looks like a western-friendly source until that ownership layer is examined. Niger’s Somair mine was effectively removed from the western supply chain by the 2023 coup.

The geographic map of uranium production and the geopolitical map of uranium availability are not the same map, and confusing them produces dangerously optimistic supply assessments.

The spot and term prices that western investors watch are prices in the western procurement sphere. As western-origin supply tightens relative to western demand, those prices will increasingly reflect western-origin scarcity rather than global aggregate adequacy.

The fracture is not symmetric, and the side bearing the greater adjustment cost is the side that spent the post-Cold War decades assuming global commodity markets were a permanent and neutral feature of the energy landscape.

[📐triANGLE INVESTOR @capnek123]

My new interview with @trader_ferg is out👇

Energy Crisis Isn't Over! The Dangerous Shift No One Talks About - Trader Ferg

Watch now⬇️🎬
https://t.co/QUf4qPgIzQ

#uranium #coal #natgas #oil #lng #gold #silver #commodities

[📐triANGLE INVESTOR @capnek123]

The power of #uranium 👇🔥

[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

Live Q&A with Rick Rule and Steve Barton https://t.co/YyEYUOuKJq

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Rick isn’t just one of the most knowledgeable minds across mining equities and deposits; he’s a benchmark, a lighthouse in a sea of noise. And he shares that knowledge freely, with anyone, all the time, always with the precision of a Swiss clock. A true old-school gentleman.

[📐triANGLE INVESTOR @capnek123]

Mark Chalmers discusses his transition from CEO of @Energy_Fuels (NYSE American: UUUU/TSX: EFR) and breaks down the future of the #uranium market, #rareearths & #criticalminerals and company developments and plans

https://t.co/BnFQhLKohv

[Bid Bird @BidBird10]

I think this is the first time Mark Chalmers have spoken about Ra-226 prices? In @capnek123’s interview he mentioned that a gram of Radium can go for $6M.

I did a lot of work and research on this topic when Energy Fuels acquired RadTran and I tried to get answers from many industry experts. Mark’s answer seems to be on the upper end of my $2.8M - $6.1M range, but nowhere near $10M (I got that from one source, but it was a clear outlier).

After doing more consulting and math, I came up with a theoretical production capacity of 30-70 grams of Radium per annum at company level, with high grade Pinyon Plain uranium ore being by far the most important source of that.

30 x 6 would be $180M and 70 x 6 would be $420M in revenues with extraordinary margins.

Of course, that to happen, they need to nail the extraction process and that is easier said than done. Pinyon Plain is estimated to contain about 10 KG of Radium. That is a one small dumbbell separated to billions of miniscule pieces you need to find from a big mine.

If you have no clue what I’m talking about, please read or listen my short Medical Isotopes segment from my Energy Fuels deep dive: https://t.co/F4QC2EbAp1

Have a great weekend everyone!

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

More disruptions, both on Upstream & Midstream infra, in Saudi Arabia. East-West can pump less now. Rest remains to be seen from loading data.

Source: Kpler, @Amena__Bakr

[Christiane Amanpour @amanpour]

Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank “is going into overdrive, it’s worse than ever,” says Norway’s Foreign Minister @EspenBarthEide.

“Settler violence, settler activity, even supported by the Israeli government, allowing settlers to take full control of territories that legally is Palestine and which even agreements that Israel has signed have recognized as to be controlled by Palestinians.”

[🚜Farmer🇺🇦UA @Tavrian_Farmer]

We were screaming. Tagging everyone. Begging. And nothing happened.

Oleshky and other villages on the left bank of Kherson region are still quietly dying. Blockade since mid-February. No food is being delivered. Supplies have run out. Human bodies lie near the morgue for weeks. Burial is impossible — dozens of permits and humiliation required. People are begging for a safe humanitarian corridor, but they’re even afraid to speak openly — the occupation punishes for less.

My post was seen by more than 80 thousand people. Ordinary people were worried: Ukrainians, Europeans, Americans — they were sharing, crying, raging, tagging organizations over and over again. They wrote “this is genocide”, “don’t forget Ukraine”, “how can Europe allow this?”. @jurgen_nauditt even pointed out that the nearest NATO city is just 410 km away.

And those who could actually do something?

@ICRC @RedCross @RedCrossEU @UN @UNHumanRights @UNHCR @UNICEF @WHO @UN_OCHA @IOM_UN @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa @SecBlinken @NATO @EU_Commission @EmmanuelMacron @Bundeskanzler @amnesty @hrw @BBCWorld @CNN @Reuters @nytimes @guardian @dw_news @AlJazeera @Euronews

Silence. Complete, criminal silence. Not a single tweet, statement, press release, not even “we are concerned”, “we are monitoring”. Nothing. They write about other crises, issue beautiful words about peace and inclusion — but not about this. Not about Europeans starving on their own continent while the world watches.

We achieved zero result. No one heard us. No corridor, no aid, no pressure on the occupiers, no media noise. Just… nothing.

This tragedy only touches ordinary people — those who still have a heart. Politicians, organizations, “humanitarians” — they don’t care unless it’s profitable or fits their plan.

If you’re reading this — don’t scroll past. Repost if it hurts. Tag them again. Ask why they are ignoring people who are dying…?!

People are dying right now.
And the world chooses not to see.

Don’t stay silent.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

Tonight, Congress will vote to lower the age to prosecute minors as adults from 16 down to 14 in DC.

Let me get this straight:

Congress wants to prosecute 14 yr. olds as adults, but they don’t want to prosecute adults who sexually abuse 14 year olds?

Release the Epstein files.

[Thomas Risvik @risvik_thomas]

@FabrizioRomano @mDahl87