sonma2020

[Stephan Livera @stephanlivera]

SLP215 @mflaxman 10x your #Bitcoin Security With Multisig

- Dangers of SPOFs
- Why multisig is worth it
- What's improved since last year
- Using @SpecterWallet @COLDCARDwallet
& @CoboVault
- air gapping, PSBT
- backups

Don't miss this one!

https://t.co/HtOc2PLjTw

[Rob Hamilton 🟥 @Rob1Ham]

The most common question I am getting right now in the fall out of the news of COLD CARD MK3, MK4, MK5 and Q having compromised entropy, is:

"Rob, what would you do right now if you were in my shoes? Where would you send your bitcoin to be safe?"

I will share with you my list of what I would do, but first, there is AN URGENT SECURITY ADVISORY IN THE BITCOIN ECOSYSTEM.

Below is my personal assessment of the situation.

If you or someone you know:

Uses an MK3, MK4, MK5, or Q in a single signature

OR

A multi signature wallet where the cold card devices can move the funds on their own (Example, 2 cold cards and a Ledger).

Please continue reading. You may be in danger. If this does not apply to you, keep on reading if you like, but you are not impacted by this issue.

If you are still here, there are three identified mitigations that protect you at the moment. They are all different forms in which you may have brought your own entropy.

A: DICE - This is done by either rolling dice from the start, or adding dice rolls to the generated seed phrase. At least 50 dice rolls would be my threshold at 128 bits of entropy.

OR

B: PASSPHRASE - You used a passphrase of sufficient entropy (128 bits).

128 Bits of entropy pass phrase examples include RANDOM combinations of the following:

- 12 BIP 39 seed words.
- 10 common words in the english language
- 25 mixed lower case letters and numbers
- 20 if you use ASCII characters

Note on pass phrases: This does not include the same word 12 times, 10 words in a sentence, etc. This combinations of characters/numbers OR words should never have been seen or spoken before in the total sum of all human knowledge and experiences. It needs to be RANDOM for it to be entropy.

OR

C: EXTERNAL ENTROPY - Your seed phrase was derived entirely outside of the cold card ecosystem. (It was imported into the cold card, not generated on it)

Now, if you are still reading, and you do not have any of these mitigations in place, you need to move your funds. The urgency of circumstances are as follows:

TIER 1: AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

Scenario A: If you are in a signature wallet with an effected device, and did not use any of the mitigations listed above. You need to move funds right now. Find someone to help you, any moment your funds can be stolen.

Scenario B: If you have an N of N (eg 2 of 2, 3 of 3, etc) multisig of just cold card devices that did not have mitigations listed above (dice and/or passphrase).

Attackers will be grinding all of the combinations of compromised keys. They know all your seed phrases. You are compromised. It is just a matter of time for them to assemble the puzzle pieces together and steal your funds.

If this scenario is you, I will have more below on how to mitigate risk when broadcasting your transaction.

TIER 2: URGENTLY

If you are in a single signature wallet with an effected device, and you used either less than 50 dice rolls OR a pass phrase less secure than what I shared above. The entire security of your bitcoin is reliant on how much of Dice AND Passphrases you applied to your wallet.

Attackers know your seed phrase. Your entropy from dice or pass phrase is the only thing protecting you. Did you add a pass phrase of 'bitcoin'? You are basically in tier 1. Did you use 6 words? You are not at tier 1, but you aren't safe. You need to make plans to move funds quickly.

TIER 3 SOON, BUT IMPORTANT CONTEXT:

You have a multi signature wallet where the compromised devices have sufficient ability to move the funds. An example is a 2 of 3 multisig where you have 2 cold cards and another signer.

The issue with Tier 3 is that an attacker may have already figured out your insecure seed phrases. This means when you broadcast your bitcoin transaction, an attacker in theory can then steal your funds.

NOTE: IF YOU ARE IN THIS SITUATION, AND YOU HAVE REUSED ADDRESSES, ALL REUSED ADDRESSES PUT YOU RIGHT BACK AT THE TIER 1 MOVE RIGHT AWAY YOUR FUNDS ARE AT RISK AT THIS VERY MOMENT

You should look into finding a way to use the @MARAFoundation_ slipstream service, which uses a private mempool. This means that by the time an attacker could see your attempted recovery, it is already in a block and not possible for them to steal funds.

TIER 4: KEY ROTATION. This is where you have an insecure cold card(s) in your multisig quorum, and you know that the other keys in your quorum are not impacted by this bug.

If there is a MK3,MK4,MK5 or Q in the quorum, BUT they either: 1. Rolled sufficient dice (50 min) 2. Have a strong pass phrase (as defined above). 3. Used entropy not sourced from the device, they are not impacted by this bug in the Cold Card (see notes earlier on mitigations).

You are in a position where a minority of your keys are compromised. Funds are safe, but you are at reduced security. Make plans when you are able to remove the compromised device from your wallet.

Now. With that security advisory out of the way, back to the question, what would I do in this situation?

Below is just my opinion, but you should not rely on only my opinion, you will have to make your own choices based on what you feel is best for you.

I want to be clear, if you are not on this list. It is not that I think your product/business is bad, insecure or at risk, I am directly answering the question of what I would do. This is my personal judgement given my decade of experience in bitcoin.

First, a disclaimer:

My bitcoin is at my company @AnchorWatch. I have full skin in the game in that if I'm offering a custody solution, there will never be another place I store large amounts of bitcoin long term for myself or my family, and it will be this way as long as I am here.

I was the first bitcoin that went on our Trident Vault platform. If the day ever comes, I will be the last bitcoin to leave the platform.

The years of what we built at AnchorWatch were for exactly moments like this. Avoiding catastrophic risk of ruin scenarios.

We offer 2 products:

1. Our Flagship Product where you as the customer can hold 1 or 3 keys, and we act as a cosigner. We leverage bitcoin native smart contracts which allow for your bitcoin to have different ways it can be spent across time.

2. Multi Institution Custody, where we let you distribute your keys across 3 institutions of ourselves, @bitgo and @CoinCorner. 2 of the 3 institutions must sign off on the transaction, and you have to present a Yubikey signature before withdrawing to mitigate deepfake and compromised accounts.

For both products as, since we are a cosigner, we are able to enforce rules like whitelisted addresses, and velocity controls (how much bitcoin can you send how often). You can even disable the send button on the platform if you so choose!

We also offer 1:1 insurance backed by Lloyd's of London.

If you want to learn more about what we do, hit up @_joerodgers or @BeccaAmilee to learn more, or check out our website.

Now with that out of the way, places where I'd leave my bitcoin (besides @AnchorWatch) in no particular order:

Custodian:

I'd trust my life savings at @River under a duress situation. This is one of those times. @Leishman and the entire team at River are elite operators. It is my favorite bitcoin services business in the market today outside of my own.

They own their own custody infrastructure, and at times like this, you want those who have extreme ownership and control over how their customer's money is being managed.

@River does monthly proof of reserves, and you can turn on the force field feature which will freeze withdrawals of bitcoin. They have a world class custody team as well, and are making improvements regularly with a larger upgrade that has been planned for a long time, happening later this year.

Collaborative Custody:

1. The @Bitkey is an incredible product with an elite team of engineers supported by the @BlockEng organization. They have exceptional bitcoin developers across @spiral_xyz and @CashApp teams who deeply understand Bitcoin.

@jack has been a long time believer in bitcoin who has built an organization that has no peer in the resources they have not just understanding bitcoin, but building on bitcoin.

You can pick it up a Bitkey at best buy today!

I do want to add a disclaimer that all keys are managed within the Bitkey ecosystem. The Bitkey team has gone to great lengths to keep things secure, but in light of recent events, I want to call that out. At the moment, the Bitkey is my only exception to a purist ideal of multi vendor multisig (more below).

2. @CasaHODL - @Nneuman and @lopp have been on top of this incidence response, and have built a very clean user experience to let people be safe. You can either use a 2 of 3 or 3 of 5 multisig with a great mobile app. Casa is the best UX for soverign collaborative multisig that exists in the market today.

3. @uncahined - Unchained pioneered the collaborative custody model and the multi institution custody model. They have been working around the clock trying to support customers and have even been able to use slip stream going the extra mile on short notice to keep customers bitcoin safe.

Self Custody:

I have spent close to $5k on LLM tokens over the past 24 hours scanning over a hundred bitcoin related repositories. As of now, I have seen no vulnerability that has me concerned about any hardware device outside of the Cold Cards.

Even so, you can't be sure. So I would follow the @mflaxman "Bitcoin 10x security guide". Its how I held my bitcoin before I founded @AnchorWatch, and even though the guide is 6 years old, the principles are timeless. I would remove his suggestion of using the cold card and replace it with any other hardware wallet. I would replace the cold card with a @Ledger at this time if it were my decision. You can pick up a Ledger up at Best Buy in the US.

Michael pioneered multi vendor multisig as a concept, and if you want a fully sovereign solution, as of today there is no better mental model on how to think through this, he has advanced tabs to further increase the security. For his cold card guide he fairly calls out the added benefit of rolling dice, which would have saved you today.

I think the future is combining the tech we use at @AnchorWatch to move beyond the single signature/ multi signature paradigm of custody, with the principles of @mflaxman's 10x security guide and the support of collaborative custody.

More on that later, but I would check out @lianabitcoin from @Wizardsardine as well, they offer a fully open source wallet that enables these more advanced smart contracts and are security researchers in the bitcoin ecosystem.

With that, I'm going to get back to work. I will post a followup reply if I have additional information or any corrections or clarifications to make.

[集英社オンライン @shueisha_online]

堂本光一が語るマイケル・ジャクソン「彼はエンターテインメントの究極形だった」
https://t.co/pTUy2LFlz9

[sonma2020 @sonma2020]

SOLO CD DEBUT 20th ANNIVERSARY Playlist
#堂本光一ソロCDデビュー20周年
#Playlist

https://t.co/xZpxlZ3Azz

[おかる@スタエン推し活サポート @okaru_ota]

【#SixTONES #一般販売 #プレイガイド 】
ストの一般発売が発表されました！

■一般販売
•日時：2月1日(日) 12:00〜
•対象公演：愛知、千葉、大阪、
•チケット料金：10,300円（税込）

■決済方法
ぴあカード
クレジットカード
セブン-イレブンで支払 (決済手数料：ご購入1件につき 330円)
【購入のコツ】
・30分前には販売ページにスタンバイ！
・仮確保は10分だけ！素早く入力して！
・支払い方法を事前に決めておくと◎

詳しい購入ステップは画像でチェック！

ライブには、推しがクリアに見える防振双眼鏡がおすすめ。レンティオなら高額な防振双眼鏡がレンタル可能。おかるのおすすめはビクセンです◎

👇レンティオ
こちらの友達紹介リンクからの申し込みで500円OFFになります☺️

https://t.co/5IYZMrQOpJ

#PR

[おかる@スタエン推し活サポート @okaru_ota]

ストのリセールのスケジュールまとめました。初日の福岡公演は1/2からスタートですので、お見逃しなく！

🗓️リセール期間は公演日5日前11:00〜公演日2日前11:59
💰️出料品手数料：チケット券面金額の10％
（＋送金システム手数料 275円）
💰️購入手数：チケット券面金額の15％
（＋決済システム手数料 購入金額の3％）

⚠️注意事項
✓購入はツアー中に１人１公演のみ
✓2枚当選のうち、1枚のみの出品は不可
✓リセールで購入したチケットを再度出品は不可
✓購入時に同行者登録が必須
✓同行者含め本人確認あり
✓FC会員以外も購入可能

ライブには防振双眼鏡がおすすめ。レンティオなら高額な防振双眼鏡がレンタル可能。おかるのおすすめはビクセンです◎

👇レンティオ
こちらの友達紹介リンクからの申し込みで500円OFFになります☺️
https://t.co/5IYZMrRmfh

#MILESixTONES
#リセール
#SixTONES
#PR

[きんさぽ📢DOMOTO×堂本 情報📢(非公式) @KinKi_support]

[ftr][配信] DOMOTO 愛のかたまり X’mas Session
開催場所-関東
･よみうりランド
･東京ドイツ村
･長井海の手公園
･千葉ポートタワー
･たまアリ△タウン クリスマスマーケット
･アクアリウムダイニングJeMare
･THE FARMスロウマウンテン成田
･BAY HOTEL(CVS/秋葉原/東京有明/浦安駅/東京浜松町)

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🚨JPMORGAN JUST ADMITTED BITCOIN WON🚨

JPMorgan just filed structured notes tied to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF with leveraged upside, conditional early call, and multiyear convexity exposure.

To decode this, you need to understand what banks actually use these notes for.

This is JPMorgan selling convexity on Bitcoin into institutional demand while hedging the other side internally.

This product shows JPMorgan believes:

Bitcoin is too big to ignore and too profitable not to financialize.

Let’s break it down.👇

[Bram Kanstein @bramk]

I made a website that follows everything we need to watch to know if this (Bitcoin Sovereign Flywheel) Thesis is playing out and where we are at 🔴🟠🟢

https://t.co/wQSqRnOfdp

Includes a timeline and updates monthly with an AI Deep Research report on all specified elements👇

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

Brilliant frame of what is happening. 🫡

[ファミクラストア @MerchCompany_jp]

【ご注文受付中】
★Endless SHOCK 2024 the Last Year ファミクラストア オンライン限定盤
https://t.co/Z8P241lqD9

ファミクラストア オンライン内特設サイトにて、12/7(日)23:59までご注文を承っております。
オンラインストア限定販売となりますので、ぜひご検討ください。
※ご注文受付期間内でも、予定数に達し次第受付終了となります。

[Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross @alexwg]

https://t.co/SaMifaZMdH

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"The Debasement Trade" since COVID:

In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%.

In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%.

In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%.

[𝙹𝚘𝚊𝚑 @JoahSantos]

https://t.co/9KTdQ0fgFF

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Getting Bitcoin to $1 million by 2035 will require over a trillion dollars in fresh capital.

Think of it as a crime scene. For Bitcoin to steal $1 trillion from the fiat system, it needs three things: means, motive, and opportunity.

The means? That $10 trillion annual money creation. Bitcoin only needs to capture 10% of one year’s new money to reach our target. Given that this printing will continue for the next decade, there’s $100 trillion of new money being created between now and 2035. Bitcoin needs just 1% of it.

The motive? Every freshly printed dollar, euro, and yen
loses value the moment it’s created. The 7% annual supply growth guarantees purchasing power destruction. Anyone holding this new money watches it melt like ice in the sun. They need somewhere to park it that won’t be diluted, and Bitcoin is the only monetary asset with absolutely fixed supply.

The opportunity? Bitcoin is now accessible through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even government reserves. The infrastructure is built, the regulatory framework exists, and the institutional on-ramps are wide open. For the first time in history, that $10 trillion annual flow can actually reach Bitcoin.

[Bull Trapper @bulltrapXXX]

$MSTR Analysts are sleepwalking:
- Street EPS Estimate: –$0.03
- Real EPS (BTC reval): ~$40.10
- Discrepancy: ~+133,000%

This quarter won’t be just a beat.
It will be a statistical earthquake.

Wall Street is still modeling MSTR like it’s 2018, ignoring the mark-to-market gains from Bitcoin accounting (per new FASB rules starting 2025).

1. THE MATH:
- $14.2B gross gain on BTC
- $11.2B net income post-tax
- EPS: $40.10
- Market pricing in EPS of –$0.03 🤡

If the market catches this mispricing, you get:
1. Short-covering panic.
2. Quant model rerating.
3. PE multiple re-expansion.
And with $MSTX, I have a front-row at the fireworks.

I’m betting on:
1. BTC mooning into ETF inflows.
2. MSTR printing stupid EPS due to accounting tailwinds.
3. Wall Street playing catch-up in disbelief.
4. Retail FOMO + institutional risk-chasing.

2. Why is nobody pricing in the monster EPS beat?

a. Legacy analysts = GAAP myopia + Zero BTC literacy.

i. Most Wall Street analysts don’t understand Bitcoin and they certainly don’t understand how MSTR’s accounting has changed post-FASB.

ii. They’re still modeling it like:
“MicroStrategy is a software company with BTC on the balance sheet.”

iii. In reality:
“MicroStrategy is a Bitcoin holding company with optional software revenue.”

This structural misunderstanding leads to models that omit the Q2 $14B BTC gain entirely because it doesn’t flow through traditional EBITDA or adjusted EPS frameworks.

2. Sell-Side incentives = "Stay safe, Don’t front-run"

a. Sell-side analysts don’t get paid for being right.
They get paid for being consensus.

b. Making a bold call like “$MSTR will post $40 EPS, 1000x Street estimates” is career suicide if wrong and barely rewarded if right.

c. So they just write: “We maintain Neutral. Target price $425. Awaiting clarity on Bitcoin’s trajectory.”
Safe. Vanilla. Useless…..

3. Compliance handcuffs & institutional inertia:

a. Many fund mandates prohibit exposure to BTC, so MSTR gets filtered out.

b. Others lump it in with “crypto junk” and dismiss it.

c. Also, most analysts haven’t updated their models post-FASB because:
“It’s too complicated to rebuild our model from scratch this quarter.”

d. So they just delay incorporating it. And will soon have to play catch up.

4. They’re stuck on Q1 PTSD:

a. "Q1 earnings looked like a disaster."

b. "EPS –$16.49, rev miss, negative cash flow."

c. But that was before the FASB accounting kicked in, where BTC gains can flow into earnings.
Wall Street got burned in Q1, so now they’re sitting out Q2.

5. They don’t see it as an operating business:

“This is just a BTC ETF with leverage.”

They're not entirely wrong — but that’s missing the point:
A BTC ETF doesn’t generate EPS. MSTR now does.

The moment this gets re-rated as a GAAP-profitable BTC vehicle, you’re no longer trading at a BTC NAV discount, you’re trading at a BTC earnings multiple.

6. THE ALGOS:
If EPS even sniffs breakeven, let alone prints +$40... the algos will go absolutely feral.

Here’s why:
1. Any positive EPS = Model detonation.
a. The Street is expecting –$0.03 EPS.
b. But if MSTR drops even +$1.00 in EPS...
That’s a 𝟑,𝟑𝟑𝟑% upside surprise.

Not a beat. Not a whisper. A thermonuclear dislocation.

Algos will:
1. Auto-reweight MSTR into GAAP-positive filters.
2. Trigger momentum and earnings surprise baskets.
3. Trip short-covering protocols.
4. Increase weight in “crypto-adjacent” ETFs.

7. Index inclusion triggers:

Positive trailing EPS enables future S&P500 inclusion, especially if MSTR can now show:

a. 4 quarters of GAAP profitability (which they might hit next if BTC holds up).

b. sustainable treasury strategy.

c. recurring profitability via BTC repricing (now legal under FASB).

Algos are already programmed to front-run index inclusion catalysts.

8. Quant Models will snap!:

Most quant funds don’t watch X or TradingView, they scan filings.

If they parse a $10–$40 positive EPS in the Q2 10-Q?
That’s a factor regime shift.

MSTR instantly:
a. Drops into value factor screens.
b. Re-ranks in volatility-adjusted Sharpe models.
c. Qualifies for earnings momentum factors

9. Short interest = Firestarter:

MSTR short interest is 10% of float.

Many are playing “this is just a leveraged ETF” and shorting it versus long BTC.

If EPS is +$40 and BTC is up?
That pair blows up instantly.

10. Media lag = Retail FOMO:

Once CNBC, Bloomberg etc. wake up and realize: “Wait, MSTR just printed $11B in net income from BTC?”
They’ll shout: “MSTR is a Bitcoin stock with profits!” …Too late.
By then?

Algos will have bid it 30% higher.
Retail will pile in.
And then Wall Street will say “we raise PT to $600.”

9. How much M/nav?

Phong Le, CEO of Strategy recently said in an interview – “You should value MicroStrategy the way you'd value any operating company, except instead of EBITDA, you use BTC dollar gains as the “earnings stream.”
So if:
a BTC appreciates by $25B/year…
·b. And you apply a 20x–30x multiple (like on high-growth tech)…
You arrive at valuations like: $500B to $1T for MSTR.

Justification for that ‘valuation logic’:
1. Traditional models don’t apply to MicroStrategy.
2. This is not alchemy (as critics say); it’s a form of "Bitcoin-yield-based valuation."
3. BTC dollar gains are real, calculable AND repeatable.
4. Therefore, the multiple on those gains should resemble high-growth tech, not static book value.

He literally says:
"Maybe 10x NAV, maybe 20x NAV... It's not alchemy. This has been happening."

To end this:
Even if Jeff Walton’s EPS calculation of $40 is overstated…
The surprise is not in the number. The surprise is in the direction.
If the EPS is even +$0.01?
Algos won't “analyze.” They’ll just say: “Oh sh*t, it flipped.”
And they’ll front-run the next 3 quarters. Hard.

NONE OF THIS IS PRICED IN.

@PunterJeff

/END.

[JJ @medolarkjelnick]

@saylor

[Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 @DocumentingBTC]

Fifteen years ago today, the mysterious creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, posted their most famous quote: ‘If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.’

At the time, you could buy a bitcoin for 6 cents.

[FinancialFreedom @FinFreedom414]

I’m going to walk you through a trade that I think a lot of people in the Bitcoin community should seriously consider.

I’m extremely bullish on the price of Bitcoin over the next year. I often say that I think the price hits $200k in 2025 and have positioned myself accordingly. But what if we see a blow off top scenario and Bitcoin goes up far more than many expect?

Earlier this year, we saw @JoshMandell6 absolutely nail his $84,000 Bitcoin call. I’ve been listening to what he’s been saying over the past year, and I really respect his insight and experience. Josh believes this cycle will take Bitcoin to $444,000. What would this scenario look like and how should you capitalize on it?

If that happens, Bitcoin and shares of $IBIT would be up around 278.5%. That alone is impressive.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

If you buy the $100 call options on $IBIT that expire in June 2026—and Bitcoin makes a move toward that $444K level—those calls could return something close to 3,000%.

The breakeven on that trade is far less, $IBIT would only need to trade around $104 per share by expiration for the June, 2026 contracts to break even. And you have nearly a full year to let the trade play out.

For me, I see this as a scenario that I can toss a flyer out there—with the chance to see a massive return if Bitcoin rips.

Not financial advice, but I’m loving the risk/reward ratio on $IBIT $100 calls a year out.

[Fashion Express @Licca_28]

【#堂本光一 さん衣装】
📺7/23『世界くらべてみたら』

«只今放送中» 堂本光一さん着用

フラワーレース柄のオープンカラーシャツ
ブランドは LOVELESS (ラブレス)

▼詳細はこちら
https://t.co/bzELuBM0HT
#世界くらべてみたら
#せかくら 光一くん