The Anthropic IPO already has a clear WINNER.
It’s NOT Dario Amodei, despite being its CEO.
It’s NOT the VCs, despite backing it from the start.
It’s NOT Google, despite investing billions into it.
It’s NOT the IPO buyers, despite getting in on day one.
It’s AMAZON, and the way it happened is absolutely INCREDIBLE.
Since 2023, Amazon has been lending Anthropic money through convertible notes.
These are loans that don’t get repaid in cash, BUT in shares at prices locked in years ago.
Those prices? Just $2.09-$5.05 per share, while IPO buyers pay $70-$78 for the very same stock.
In short, Amazon gets Anthropic shares at a 93-97% DISCOUNT to everyone else.
Now, Amazon is still owed $6.2 BILLION in these notes.
At those old prices, that gets Amazon roughly 1.84 billion Anthropic shares.
At that IPO price, that's worth around $129B-$144, up to 23x what Amazon lent.
But Amazon can’t take it all at once, because it’s only allowed to own up to 12% of Anthropic.
So on IPO day, only $579M of the $6.2B will convert into shares on IPO day.
That will give Amazon around 277 million shares worth ~$19B-$22B.
The remaining $5.6B turns into ~1.56 billion more shares, converting every quarter after the listing.
At the $74 midpoint, that's another $116B, about 20x what Amazon lent.
For context, 1.56 billion shares is nearly DOUBLE the 825 million shares Anthropic is selling to the public in the entire IPO.
And the 12% cap? Amazon can waive it anytime, converting everything at once.
But even if it doesn’t, Amazon can SELL its shares once lock-up limits allow.
And since every sale lowers its stake, Amazon could simply convert even MORE.
No matter what, Amazon keeps winning.
Truly incredible.
JUST IN: Democrats propose requiring AI companies to obtain federal government permission before training AI models, with up to 20 years in prison for violations.
My friend runs one of the biggest woodworking businesses in the northeast. He was telling me the other day Anthropic offered him $1M just watch his team create cabinets. $1M! No other strings attached. Three months of watching employees virtually so they can model, learn and integrate it into Claude.
The rep said they were doing this with multiple firms across every industry.
All knowledge work will have every scenario and use case backed by experts 10k hours, in Claude within the next year or two.
Not a doomer but the "AI isn't going to drive job losses" is going to be so wrong it hurts.
Today we’re launching the Gemini Decisions API, powered by our new Gemini Decision 1 model in @GoogleAIStudio.
Instead of generating text token by token, it’s built for closed-set choices scoring up to 1,000 questions across text, images, audio, video + PDFs in a single pass. A few details:
- 3 decision types: yes/no, multiple choice (up to 255 options) + rubric scoring
- $0.10 / 1M input tokens with $0 billed for output tokens (~5x cheaper than Flash-Lite)
- leads on several benchmark evals with lowest calibration error
Google teams are already building with it, below is a look at Stitch Rapid designing a full product flow in seconds (1x speed)
Agents now make up the majority of web traffic, write more than half of new articles published online, and generate most of the code pushed to production.
This is what the early stage of a platform shift looks like: adoption is measurable, but the business models it enables mostly aren’t visible yet.
Welcome to the agent economy.
https://t.co/Y4aT9wibgb
🇺🇸 Changing your Gmail password might not protect you from hackers anymore.
There's a new hacking tool called Remus Stealer, and apparently hackers can rent it for $1,000 a month.
Here's the scary part. Once your device is infected, the people behind it claim hackers can keep reading your emails and stealing security codes even after you change your password.
Researchers are still checking whether it really works that way.
Google recommends removing malware, logging out of suspicious sessions and checking your account settings.
Oh great. Like everything happening in the world wasn't enough, now we have to worry about this too.
Source: New York Post / Writer: Daniyal
SITUATION DETECTED: With cannabis prices crashing to historic lows, marijuana growers with massive industrial properties outfitted with heavy power, fiber, water, and HVAC are attempting to pivot into AI data centers, per Forbes.
I genuinely can’t believe what I just watched. 😭
A 1994 Jeep Cherokee with no OBD2 port. No modern scan tool could communicate with it.
So someone brought in a $3 Arduino, Claude Code and Codex.
About a week later, the AI agents had figured out how to read the engine computer live, copy its firmware and even run their own code inside it.
A $3 piece of hardware and a couple of AI coding agents.
We’re getting to the point where AI isn’t just writing software. It’s helping people reverse-engineer and interact with hardware that was never designed for it.
This is just fantastic and worth 10 minutes of your time if you care about real-world applications of AI.
Seriously, go watch this.
I believe typing will become obsolete.
Not just at home. Even in offices full of people.
Today, we're officially partnering with Anker to bring soundcore Work to Typeless.
It's a tiny wearable microphone that lets you speak naturally, even in a whisper, and turn your thoughts into clear writing with Typeless.
Messages. Emails. AI interactions. Long documents.
The future of work is spoken, not typed.
This partnership is one step toward making that future real.
@typelessdotcom + @soundcoreaudio
JUST IN: Developer abandons $10B Michigan data center project after residents reject the proposal, despite promises of $54 million in annual tax revenue & a $20 million community investment fund.
HubSpot co-founder and CTO Dharmesh Shah says ChatGPT and Claude are the new browsers, and like browsers, they won't own the whole software stack:
"Everything kind of comes back around again. When we saw the original SaaS development moving to the web-based application world, we had the same kind of thing. We had client-server apps running on our desktops. And then we had this browser thing come along, Internet Explorer and later Mozilla."
"But as it turns out, Google did not own the entire application stack. There were lots and lots of software companies that got built. The interface became the browser because that was a convenient way to get to the actual product that you needed to get to."
"We have a similar thing now. And it's different, because the AI is doing cognition work, it's doing actual smart things. But if you just look at the ChatGPT and Claude Cowork thing, they're effectively the new OS. They are the new browsers. And there will be companies like HubSpot that sort of plug in."
@dharmesh
buzz 1.0 is finally here! the most flexible team workspace out there. for humans and agents, model agnostic, local or cloud, and infinitely extendable.
https://t.co/8IaMVeUoCW
The AI Futures Project have updated their timelines. They say we are five months ahead of AI 2027, and they now believe a Superhuman AI Researcher will arrive sometime in 2027.
I asked fable 5.2 to invent a new musical form.
Fable 5.2 wrote a symphony that’s shaped like a training run.
The orchestra starts as random noise, learns the key, pulse, harmony and the melody, then plays music it was never shown.
Now in beta: Businesses in ChatGPT.
Claim your business, manage your information, and get insights on how people engage with you.
Eligible businesses can also build a Business Agent to answer customers’ questions and help them explore what you offer.
https://t.co/N2GEZX0mFT
We raised $5.3M to give AI agents a computer to run on, with their own email, phone, iMessage, and WhatsApp
Led by @peakxvpartners, with @rauchg, @sternhenri, @jefrankle, @cjc, and @daniel_levine
Today we’re launching hosted agents on @inkbox_ai. Your agent runs next to its communication channels, so it never misses a reply. It sleeps when idle, so you don’t pay for downtime.
In the 4 months since our YC launch, we’ve processed millions of messages for AI agents.
Trojan horse incoming! 🐴 @AbdulElSayed caught in a video the public was never supposed to see—casually informing America that he hates a Michigan zip-code that is majority white and that Muslims hate Americans. Next stop: the tiny jihadist launches his Super PAC today for a future presidential run. @RobFinnertyUSA 🔥🎯
As I've been saying, Learning has now changed!
With @claudeai Fable 5.2, my 10 year old son was able to:
1. Virtually build a RC car, with the components that he wanted
2. Train a neural network (by driving it himself for 15 minutes across various track types, and observing loss curves) and test it on the actual track.
Here's his car, driving a course.
He's super excited and even asked me if the model is "overfitting", which was surprising.
I asked him where he learnt about overfitting, he said @brilliantorg
Learning has now changed!