Since half the folks I read here, and folks up to Dario as well, are so down, maybe this is worth saying: the best evidence and theory is that AI will be very consequential but also very positive for human wealth, health, and flourishing. 1/3
There should be a retrospective reputational penalty imposed on referees who vote no on a paper because the paper is too simple technically -- if that paper ends up being important.
It's an almost definitional indicator of bad judgment.
(Not tweeting about my own experiences!)
Just had a faculty meeting at INSEAD about the impact of AI on management education and how we should respond.
Every serious business school is having the AI conversation right now.
1/
I wrote a substack today where I tried to explain my views about how complementary Claude code is to your work when you have real expertise in that specific area, and how sketchy it is when you don’t.
https://t.co/vTpruOTJmq
@alexolegimas And if tenure stays, I think the number of A pubs required for tenure will stay the same - bar just goes up on quality. With a short hiccup where advanced users blast through the target. You?
@alexolegimas My experience has been the same---at first I was doing everything myself in Claude Code, but now as I've scaled I'm working with more RAs more than ever now!
I love the work Alexander has been doing. But here is where we disagree: both academic articles and the work of juniors/RAs are equilibrium objects. Yes, AI can (or soon will be) able to write the types of articles we've written *in the past*. That means that new articles will just be better.
Many of those working heavily with AI have seen their workflow, idea generation, research process change drastically with these tools. They are writing very different papers. The alpha will be in writing papers with AI that AI cannot do on its own. From my own experience: I am not writing more papers, I'm writing very different papers, ones I would have not been able to write before. This is incredibly exciting (for me, maybe not "the world"). @lugaricano has said similar things on here.
Regarding juniors and RAs, I have to admit there was a few weeks in January where I had little work for my RAs. I did think: maybe there will no longer be an RA role. But then I sat them down, taught them how to use Claude Code, then Codex, gave them access to it, and now they're busier than ever (Jevons paradox for work). So yes, the types of things they were doing before have been largely replaced by AI, but RA + AI is incredibly useful. @cblatts made a similar point here as well.
All of this to say that science will change. I'm very worried about implications of AI for labor market, but not for science: it will be a huge positive and boon for humanity. (all of my statements above are not future proof btw, the centaur phase may be more temporary than I expect).
A federal bill to ban electronic shelf labels in grocery stores is in committee. Nine states have introduced similar legislation. In a recent CBS segment, Walmart cites our research to push back.
📺 https://t.co/7ypqMpg1xL
@BrianCAlbrecht Thank you laying everything out, @BrianCAlbrecht ---truly a public service.
In fact, Rob Bray, Robbie Sanders, and I recently posted evidence of absence for dynamic pricing in groceries: https://t.co/aJ9DCbjoHD
The spread of electronic shelf labels in grocery stores has raised alarms among U.S. lawmakers and consumers who fear they could unleash surge pricing in the aisles https://t.co/vxaqrJqJXl
New markups paper alert! 👇👇👇👇
How do markups vary over time along the supply chain?
To address this question, I'm very excited to share a new working paper from the HBS Pricing Lab, joint with @SEAlvarezBlaser, @_amackay, and @Paolo_Mengano:
https://t.co/lbBYGp1ugF
A new study out now in Science underscores why it's not always enough to simply put in place a policy or ban.
This new research shows state food waste bans aren't working -- except in Massachusetts. Story @climate (sharing w/gift link): https://t.co/HtYuU6CMhl
Total markups that consumers paid (over production costs) were stable from 2019 to 2023, despite rising prices, for a large global consumer product manufacturer. @albertocavallo summarizes our new working paper (w/ @SEAlvarezBlaser and @Paolo_Mengano )
Excited to launch the first model from our startup: Bespoke Labs. Bespoke-Minicheck-7B is a grounded factuality checker: super lightweight and fast. Outperforms all big foundation models including Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Mistral-Large m2 and GPT 4o and its only 7B. Also, I want to congratulate Greg Durrett and his group for making the best benchmark and leaderboard for grounded factuality.