Albert B. Wolf

PhD in Poli Sci (UCI). Lived in Middle East, Caucasus and Karachi. Research on MENA Security & Audience Costs. FP,WOTR,IS,Survival,MEP. Signal: Abwolf1815.37.

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

Four experts, one question: what do the #Iran war, #Assad's collapse, and the #PKK's dissolution mean for the #Kurds? I cover the KRG's eroding leverage with #Baghdad in this @WarOnTheRocks roundtable w/ @gonultol, @AKMcKeever, & @MohammedASalih. https://t.co/v0OJarCBqb

[John Hudson @John_Hudson]

Scoop: U.S. intelligence reports offer a pessimistic view of new rounds of U.S. military strikes against Iran: They are unlikely to have a significant impact on Iran or soften its negotiating position, current and former officials tell @wstrobel and me.

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

The irony of the #IranWar: @SenateGOP & @HouseGOP will be forced to fund a war they never authorized nor oversaw. Interesting piece by @RobertJimison @NYT: https://t.co/I5lWpqoDd5.

[Akayla Gardner @gardnerakayla]

A senior foreign diplomat inside Tehran who is linked to Iran-U.S. negotiations told MS NOW’s @inzyrashid that “there is no hope of peace in the near future.” https://t.co/Vp4zjj479y

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

#Houthis have declared a maritime blockade on #Saudi ports. However, the Bab el-Mandeb remains open - for now. Contingent upon reaching yet another ceasefire. #Iran. @AlMonitor, https://t.co/PzjqsaELTQ; @Semafor, https://t.co/zRY17o70fm

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

آیا هنوز دفتر رهبر معظم #ایران وجود دارد؟ آیا ولایت فقیه یک افسانه مفید برای #سپاه_پاسداران است؟

برخی گزارش‌ها حاکی از آن است که ممکن است دفتر @MKhamenei_ir

حتی در کشور وجود نداشته باشد ( @alhurranews
). اظهارات کوتاه وزیر امور خارجه @araghchi
به رسانه‌های داخلی نشان می‌دهد که اختیارات از یک دفتر تک نفره به یک کمیته شش نفره در رده بالای شورای عالی امنیت ملی (SNSC) واگذار شده است که اکنون مسئول اداره کشور به صورت روزانه است ( @asrirannews
،
@TheStudyofWar
).
@Araghchi
خاطرنشان کرد که اختیار نهایی در مورد تصمیمات جنگ و صلح همچنان با رهبر معظم انقلاب است.

گزارش‌ها چهار عضو کمیته شش نفره را که ایران را به صورت روزانه اداره می‌کنند، نام برده‌اند:

@drpezeshkian
،
@mb_ghalibaf
،
@araghchi
و دبیر شورای عالی امنیت ملی، ذوالقدر. با این حال، می‌توانیم حدس بزنیم که دو عضو دیگر احمد وحیدی، رئیس سپاه پاسداران، و غلامحسین محسنی اژه‌ای، رئیس قوه قضائیه هستند.

اگر این موضوع صحت داشته باشد، ما شاهد ادغام یک الیگارشی متمرکز و یک حکومت نظامی هستیم، نه تز کودتای مستقیم پاسداران.

توجه: تصمیم‌گیرندگان، سخنگوها و رسانه‌های رژیم می‌توانند گزارش‌هایی مبنی بر خروج آقای خامنه‌ای از کشور را با توجه به اینکه این حساب‌ها در رسانه‌های #سعودی و همچنین #اسرائیلی .منتشر شده‌اند، تکذیب کنند. @PressTV

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

Is there still an office of the Supreme Leader of #Iran? Is Veleyat e-Faqih a useful fiction for the #IRGC?

Some reports are suggesting @MKhamenei_ir may not even be in the country (@alhurranews). Brief remarks from Foreign Minister @araghchi to domestic media suggest authority has been delegated from a single-person office to a six-person committee embedded in the upper echelon of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) now responsible for running the country on a day-to-day basis (@asrirannews, @TheStudyofWar). @Araghchi did note that final authority on decisions of war & peace remained with the Supreme Leader.

Reports have named the four members of the six-man committee running Iran on a day-to-day basis: @drpezeshkian, @mb_ghalibaf, @araghchi & SNSC Secretary Zolghadr. However, we can speculate that the other two members are Ahmad @vahidi_org, head of the #IRGC, and Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, the Head of the Judiciary.

If true, we are seeing a fusion between a unitary oligarchy and a junta rather than the straightforward Pasdaran coup thesis playing out.

Note: decision-makers, spokespeople and regime media could deny reports suggesting @MKhamenei_ir is out of the country given that the accounts appeared in #Saudi as well as #Israeli media.

See https://t.co/CZ4kSAgHV6; https://t.co/KtV66HQAaq; https://t.co/2dN49sXfMeعراقچی-سناریو-ترور-رهبری-کد-داشت-در-چند-ثانیه-سه-حمله-به-بیت-صورت-گرفت-من-تاکنون-آقا-مجتبی-را-ندیده-ام-تنها-یکی-دو-بار-در-تونل-ها-جلسه-داشتم. #Iran,#Israel,@IranIntl,@realDonaldTrump,@JDVance.

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

Two air forces. One stretch of border. Exact opposite missions.
#Israel was flying cover so Kurdish fighters could push toward #Tehran and ultimately install #Ahmedinejad in power.

#Turkiye (@RTErdogan) threatened to provide air cover to #Iran to stop them.

That's what senior Israeli officials told @kann_news.
https://t.co/mn59WScYX4.

Ankara's threat wasn't just, "We'll close the border." It was: we’ll give #Iran air support against a #Mossad-backed force. Officials say this is what @realDonaldTrump meant when he said Erdogan was "on the brink" of joining the war on Iran’s side.

The plan #Turkiye/#Turkey was threatening to shoot down had a name: "Puss in Boots." IAF strikes open a corridor, Kurdish fighters reach Tehran, mass protests finish the job, Ahmadinejad takes the chair. @TimesofIsrael:
https://t.co/Vcdqqlxk0h

I said in March (@WarOnTheRocks) this would backfire — that arming Iranian Kurds handed Tehran a coalition-fracturing tool for free.
https://t.co/h11OuhbUgm
However, I didn't guess it would come this close to Turkish jets in Iranian skies or potentially split @NATO like previous Graeco-Turkish crises have in the past.

And the blowback is still compounding. Iran just killed 9 people in a strike on a Kurdish opposition HQ near Sulaimaniyah — attempting to raise the costs of support for Kurdish secession. @AlMonitor:
https://t.co/EEMYQkOsFA

Mass arrests and executions sweeping Sistan- #Baluchistan on the same logic.
https://t.co/2BdyKTwSke

Rewind to early March: @realDonaldTrump personally reaching out to the Barzani and Talabani leaderships in Erbil. @Netanyahu, per @Axios (@BarakRavid, @MarcACaputo), certain the Kurds would "come out of the woodwork." @AlMonitor:

https://t.co/cKrlIkLT2V

Per our recent @WarOnTheRocks roundtable: the war ended up strengthening #Tehran, #Baghdad, #Damascus and #Ankara against their own Kurdish populations. @RTErdogan now using the moment to push his PKK disarmament deal.
https://t.co/fcCd81y2uD. @gonultol, @AKMcKeever, @MohammedASalih.

The Kurdish card was supposed to be the fast way to end this war. Instead it nearly opened a second one — and it strengthened the regime it was designed to topple. #Kurdistan

[AL-MONITOR @AlMonitor]

Israel to receive more US refuelling planes as Iran attacks intensify, Israeli officials say https://t.co/vySHwzdRBQ

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

#Iran war: least popular in US polling history. Just 27% say invading was right; only 1 in 4 think we won. (@TheEconomist / @YouGov).

My take: Americans are not casualty-averse. They're defeat-averse — the thesis at the heart of "Success Matters" (Gelpi @OhioState, Feaver @DukeU & @JasonReifler, @IntSecHarvard, https://t.co/zn8Zb7TTSZ).
*****
https://t.co/Ok3Agp20KK. @realDonaldTrump.

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

Gen. @mccaffreyr3 is absolutely right. Nate Swanson (@AtlanticCouncil) predicted this (@ForeignAffairs). On top of it, multiple war games going back to the @BarackObama Administration have predicted #Iran could try to close the Strait of #Hormuz. Excellent peer-reviewed piece, see @ProfTalmadge (@IntSecHarvard) - https://t.co/rRjQAxcQAO. #Iran

[Barry R McCaffrey @mccaffreyr3]

Mr Trump has gotten the US into a quagmire. There is no way to open the Strait of Hormuz without a major intervention with US ground forces. It would be a significant combat operation to take down the 200,000 IRGC… 600,000 Army. Doable. Casualties. A year.

[Al Arabiya English @AlArabiya_Eng]

🔴 BREAKING: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says negotiations with the US should be pursued even if the chances of success are only 10 percent.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

According to Saudi channel Al-Hadath, citing an Israeli security source: “Mojtaba Khamenei is not in Iran.”

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

.@AliVaez (@CrisisGroup) in @ForeignAffairs says the #Iran MOU failed from mistrust — fixable with better channels.
Wrong. Even with complete information and a known balance of power, war persists when neither side can credibly commit to a deal.
Iran can't trust the US not to attack once sanctions are lifted. The US can only trust a demobilized Iran.
Not an informational problem. A commitment one.

See https://t.co/h8OePzYGNa. See also (@IntOrgJournal) Robert Powell, “War as a Commitment Problem,” Vol. 60 (Winter 2006): https://t.co/7FjwUGc0k4.

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

.@AmbDennisRoss (@WashInstitute) wants #China to lean on #Iran over the Strait of #Hormuz — the same China that watched Iran attack its economic partners in the Gulf without lifting a finger. Beijing is not about to spend any political capital on a UNSCR fight for @realDonaldTrump's war. Via @ForeignPolicy, https://t.co/nW9UAyvmI9

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

يرى .@RKelanic، من منظمة .@DefPriorities، أن تخصيب اليورانيوم السعودي المدعوم من الولايات المتحدة يمثل "تنازلاً لإسرائيل". وهذا يتناقض تماماً مع الحقائق؛ إذ تعارض إسرائيل هذه الخطوة، كما أن التطبيع - الذي يُزعم أنه ثمنها - لن يتحقق دون حل الدولتين، وهو أمر لن تقدمه الحكومة الإسرائيلية الحالية أبداً.
#Israel,#Palestine,@netanyahu,@trump,@HRHMBNSALMAAN,#Iran

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

.@RKelanic (@DefPriorities) says Saudi enrichment is "a concession to #Israel." It isn't. Israel opposes it, and the normalization it's meant to buy won't happen without a two-state deal this government will never offer. @Netanyahu,@realDonaldTrump,#SaudiArabia,#Palestine,#Nuclear

[Albert B. Wolf @Abwolf1648]

.@RKelanic says U.S.-backed Saudi enrichment is a "concession to Israel." It isn't — and the facts say the opposite.

If this were a sweetener for #Jerusalem, someone forgot to tell the Israelis. And someone forgot to tell the Saudis too, because the "payoff" this concession is supposedly buying — normalization — isn't happening.

Riyadh has been explicit for two years: no deal without a "clear and irreversible path" to Palestinian statehood. That's a non-starter for this Israeli government. See @PatrickKingsley, @ronenbergman & @natan_oden: https://t.co/pMeGgvR6Pd

A Saudi royal-family source told Israeli outlet N12 that normalization won't happen under @Netanyahu's current government — but could happen once Israel forms a new government (i.e., one not led by Bibi) that accepts the two-state solution. See @Jerusalem_Post: https://t.co/xWP4CCiQo3

You can't call something a concession to a party that isn't getting the thing it was supposedly traded for.

Opposition to regional enrichment is one of the only things uniting Israel's fractured politics — from @Netanyahu's coalition to opposition leader @yairlapid. Nobody wants a precedent that erodes Israel's Qualitative Military Edge. See @Jerusalem_Post: https://t.co/uMgW8D3AMN

The #Begin Doctrine hardened after October 7, not softened. This was never about trusting MBS today — it's that once enrichment infrastructure exists, "safeguards" are meaningless if regimes or regional interests shift down the line. Israel thinks in decades. Washington thinks in news cycles.

Calling Saudi enrichment "an Israeli favor" lets D.C. dodge the actual proliferation question. The U.S. is asking an ally to accept a permanent strategic liability for a deal that, under this Israeli government, simply isn't materializing. #SaudiArabia,#Israel,#Nuclear, #Iran