Afonso Souto de Moura

[Afonso Souto de Moura @AfonsoSoutodeM1]

Check out our latest research on corporate taxation and its impact on firms, and also João’s thread breaking down the key findings in a clear and engaging way 👇

[João B. Duarte @JoaoBDuart3]

It’s hard to cleanly identify the effects of corporate taxes.

Most work focuses on profits, investment, or jobs (Zwick & Mahon QJE ’17; Ljungqvist & Smolyansky JF ’18; Fuest et al. AER ’18).

In our new paper — “The Real and Financial Effects of Local Corporate Tax Increases” (Banco de Portugal WP 11/2025) — we use a setting that lets us go further.

We capture the entire transmission chain: from liquidity & credit to real activity, productivity, and even spatial allocation of firms.

📄 https://t.co/CsXZxSkJBk

[European Central Bank @ecb]

The silver workforce is having a golden impact: older workers have been a key driver of euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they’re retiring later.

Looking ahead, retirement ages are set to rise further, our #EconomicBulletin finds https://t.co/6aLT0ymwUk

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

Delighted to have hosted the session “Leveraging Big Data for Economic Analysis” at the 13th ECB Conference on Forecasting Techniques, on behalf of the Financial Transactions #BigData Global Research Network (#FTGRN). Two excellent papers were presented: “The Short Lags of Monetary Policy” & “Disaggregated Economic Accounts” (congratulations to the later on its recent acceptance at @QJEHarvard). 👇 https://t.co/SC89KGG2R7
@CebraOrg @CEMLA @BIS_org @ecb @ECB_Research @bde_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @AMLEDS1 @IvanWerning @ludwigstraub @federalreserve @TheEconomist @RefetGurkaynak @pogourinchas @JesusFerna7026 @lugaricano @helene_rey @FlorinBilbiie @Benchimolium @CavaliereGiu @OECDeconomy @bancodeportugal @CEMFInews @StoneEcon_UCL @PistaferriLuigi @int_mon_econ @MMF_research @KarenDynan @albertocavallo @santospereira_a @JoaoBDuart3 @StephenEKHansen @Isabel_Schnabel @BBVAResearch @miclenza @hhigginbottom @AsgerAndersen @ChiaraOsbat

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

Delighted to have hosted the session “Leveraging Big Data for Economic Analysis” (on behalf of #FTGRN) at the 13th ECB Conference on Forecasting Techniques. We also presented our paper, “The Short Lags of Monetary Policy.”.. As ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted in his concluding remarks: “The faster transmission of monetary policy is in cards data… I think that moved everyone’s priors... That’s convincing.”👇
https://t.co/WthmOKyTiA
@CebraOrg @CEMLA @BIS_org @ECB_Research @BancoDeEspana @bde_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @AMLEDS1 @IvanWerning @ludwigstraub @federalreserve @TheEconomist @RefetGurkaynak @pogourinchas @JesusFerna7026 @lugaricano @helene_rey @FlorinBilbiie @Benchimolium @CavaliereGiu @OECDeconomy @bancodeportugal @CEMFInews @StoneEcon_UCL @PistaferriLuigi @int_mon_econ @MMF_research @KarenDynan @albertocavallo @santospereira_a @JoaoBDuart3 @StephenEKHansen @Isabel_Schnabel @_SiLviA_mA @hhigginbottom @TimTkehoe

[João B. Duarte @JoaoBDuart3]

It was a great pleasure to present our work, The Short Lags of Monetary Policy, at the Monetary Economics meeting of the NBER Summer Institute.

Link to video: https://t.co/d5V7tPBXtP

Link to slides: https://t.co/KJZxwROJOA

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

One of Top Monetary Conferences of the Year …and we will be there .. #NBER Summer Institute (Monetary Economics)… by @JonSteinsson & Emi Nakamura. @BBVAResearch at #NBER-SI (3-out-5 years at #NBER SI)👇https://t.co/qxwiBhxRSx @CebraOrg @BIS_org @int_mon_econ @Benchimolium @JonSteinsson @pogourinchas @GitaGopinath @Isabel_Schnabel @helene_rey @itskhoki @skalemliozcan @R2Rsquared @MarkusEconomist @janewayinst @JoaoBDuart3 @ECB_Research @oenb @suerf_org @_SiLviA_mA @RefetGurkaynak @ali_hakan_kara @JuriMarcucci @xgabaix @mhnickie @StephenEKHansen @bde_Research @ECB_Research

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

Thrilled to see our "Short Lags of Monetary Policy" in conference #NBER Summer Institute ("Monetary Economics") organized by @eminakamura2 @JonSteinsson 👇https://t.co/qxwiBhypI5 @BIS_org @CebraOrg @ECB_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @bde_Research @helene_rey @R2Rsquared @pogourinchas @TobiasAdrian1 @xgabaix @MartinezPeria @BenoitMojon @itskhoki @KronerNiklas @JoaoBDuart3 @StephenEKHansen @ludwigstraub @albertocavallo @IvanWerning @VascoMCarvalhoo @amitseru @kerrysiani @EmanuelMoench @int_mon_econ @Benchimolium @_LukasFreund_ @federalreserve

[Afonso Souto de Moura @AfonsoSoutodeM1]

Updated version of our WP - Now "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy". Check it out https://t.co/kBWDqtttTr

[João B. Duarte @JoaoBDuart3]

📢 New Research Alert

How quickly does monetary policy affect the real economy? We have updated extensively our Short and Variable Lags paper challenging the idea of long and variable lags.

A thread 🧵

#EconTwitter #MonetaryPolicy #Macroeconomics #CentralBanking

[João B. Duarte @JoaoBDuart3]

📢 New Research Alert

How quickly does monetary policy affect the real economy? We have updated extensively our Short and Variable Lags paper challenging the idea of long and variable lags.

A thread 🧵

#EconTwitter #MonetaryPolicy #Macroeconomics #CentralBanking

[The Janeway Institute @janewayinst]

Did you know that variables typically regarded as "slow moving", such as consumption and output, respond significantly within days & weeks to monetary policy shocks?
➡️NEW JI WP by Vasco M. Carvalho @CamEcon et al: 'The Short Lags of Monetary Policy'.
https://t.co/Bk2YRDK7SE

[Banco de Portugal @bancodeportugal]

Novo #podcast do @bancodeportugal: Porque é que o preço das casas cresce mais em Portugal do que em Espanha?

🔗https://t.co/9ZcBmxBn9o

#bdppodcasts #bdppodcast #podcast #podcasting #podcaster #bdpmaispróximo

[European Central Bank Research @ECB_Research]

New Working Paper by L. Emter, R. Setzer, N. Zorell & A. S. Moura: "Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality" https://t.co/GZZlVWwy6O 1/5

[Banco de Portugal @bancodeportugal]

@bancodeportugal publishes Banco de Portugal Economic Studies – Vol. 10, No. 4

🔗 https://t.co/A7Ql5wPdJM

#publications #economy #econtwitter

1/5

[Banco de Portugal @bancodeportugal]

Housing prices have been rising more in Portugal than in Spain. This article highlights signs of overvaluation in the national market, where supply is unable to offset demand pressures, unlike in Spain.

🔗 https://t.co/glZYjESGWD

#publications #economy

5/5

[Afonso Souto de Moura @AfonsoSoutodeM1]

Check out this @FT article that quotes our work on how quickly monetary policy impacts the economy 👇

[The Janeway Institute @janewayinst]

Research by V.M. Carvalho @CamEcon et al. (https://t.co/ycd5ywPnbH) which 'suggests monetary policy shocks have sizeable immediate effects, in contrast to received wisdom that policy operates only through long and variable lags' is quoted in today's @FT
https://t.co/JmbulbBMUd

[Público @Publico]

Descida do IRC puxa pela economia, mas implica compensar a quebra de receitas https://t.co/tOZgRQ1gNo

[Público @Publico]

Em três décadas, regras do IRC já sofreram mais de 1350 alterações https://t.co/QfwdXTvr95

[Banco de Portugal @bancodeportugal]

🎙️Novo #podcast do @bancodeportugal: Subidas de juros afetam pouco o preço das casas em Portugal?

🔗https://t.co/6tX1hnOn5J

#bdppodcasts #bdppodcast #podcast #podcasting #podcaster #bdpmaispróximo

[Rodrigo Barrela @rduartebarrela]

🚨New working paper!!! 🚨

We provide evidence showing that real wage cyclicality is much stronger for higher-wage works than for lower-wage workers.

Joint with Pedro Portugal (Banco de Portugal, Nova SBE) and Eduardo Costa (CEGIST)
🧵 #EconTwitter

[Banco de Portugal @bancodeportugal]

Economics in a picture from @bancodeportugal: Monetary policy impacts strongly and faster the number of housing transactions than their prices

🔗https://t.co/YH1fpaVpTr

#economicsinapicture