Ben Thomas

Events @rootsofprogress | but my views | economics, housing, technology, progress, bible | personal tinkering & writing at

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

My Progress Conference take: this is the "you can just do things *well*" crowd. (The progress studies et al community)

Not just "you can just do things", but actually you can do things with taste, craft, and thoughtfulness.

Regulation could make sense.
Housing and energy could be abundant.
AI can make our lives better.
CX with government could be 10/10.

Very energizing to be around so many people who believe we can solve problems to build a future that I want my grandkids to be in.

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

The first podcast I'm disappointed to see is *only* 75min. What about 4hr? 10hr? I'll make time.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

Economics of AGI episode w Alex Imas and Phil Trammell.

There's a bunch of important questions about how we deal with AI that only economics can answer.

What is the optimal way to tax and redistribute the wealth that will be generated? How should countries not in the AI supply chain index into the gains? Is there any world where inequality doesn't explode?

It might seem like these questions have obvious answers, but the first thing economics teaches you is that your intuitions can often be entirely wrong.

It was very helpful to chat through these things with Alex and Phil.

Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, or Spotify. Enjoy!

00:00:00 – Will capital share increase?
00:19:36 – Messy Middle scenario
00:25:57 – How to tax and redistribute AI wealth
00:30:02 – Why demand collapse is unlikely
00:39:26 – Human employees would be hard to integrate into the machine economy
00:43:08 – What if some humans (or AIs) value wealth accumulation intrinsically?
01:01:28 – What should developing countries do?

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Deadline extended: We want to hear from you!

If you're interested in attending Progress Conference 2026, there's a few more days to let us know.

I read every single one of these apps by hand. Shaping up to be another great event.

[Roots of Progress Institute @rootsofprogress]

3 days left to apply to attend Progress Conference 2026!

We extended the deadline by just a few days.
If you're interested in attending, please fill out the form below by June 5th. We've received almost 700 applications so far. We're looking forward to another great event.

[Roots of Progress Institute @rootsofprogress]

3 days left to apply to attend Progress Conference 2026!

We extended the deadline by just a few days.
If you're interested in attending, please fill out the form below by June 5th. We've received almost 700 applications so far. We're looking forward to another great event.

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

You too can take Kevin's class because the syllabus & slides are public!
https://t.co/1GnR7bfhyF

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

One reason I started teaching my "progress" class is the vibes vs reality gap. Coming into the greatest decade in human history: basically solved metabolic syndrome, deaths from autos, huge progress in abundant green energy and cancer, going back to the moon, (and yeah, AI) 1/2

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

"What will be scarce?"

[Samay @samaysham]

One accountant told us she spent 180 hours on tax prep last year. This year she spent 15.

She used that time to call every client and walk them through their return.

That’s what gets me excited. Less time buried in prep and more time as a strategic advisor to clients.

[Adam Singer @AdamSinger]

Reject this hogwash, America is electric right now. There’s opportunity everywhere if you’re willing to work, learn, risk trying things, and participate in life. The upside on optimism is uncapped. You live in the greatest period of innovation in history, fade the malthusians

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Yeah. What bugs me is that the Bible does have perspective here: what makes humankind special is not intelligence nor consciousness nor even the lifegiving breath of God, but only the imago dei, the vocation and opportunity to bear the divine image.

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

United's customer experience turnaround needs to be studied. Has anyone written long form about their last ~5 years?

I used to actively avoid UA flights. Forced into it from SFO but now I'm a happy campsr.

[Everett Randle @EverettRandle]

No better feeling than getting the United “your plane will have Starlink” text

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Is it efficient to have aspiring econ PhD's applying to ~24 programs on average?

[Noah Williams @Bellmanequation]

Economics graduate programs in decline: new PhD student enrollments down 12.5%, masters enrollment down 17.6%, according to @AEAjournals

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

I don't really understand why people keep arguing about whether or not artificial intelligence is intelligent... it's right there in the name!

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

With real interest rates high and likely to stay high in any AGI-like scenario (see Chow, Halperin, and Mazlish), I would like to see more philanthropic $'s deployed to for-profit but lower- or slower-return businesses.

5% risk-free rate of return and increasing is a high hurdle for new business formation!

Of course higher real interest rates are the signal from the market to steer investment to AI industries -- but that's exactly what crowds out other marginal investments. Philanthropic capital can pull forward that investment years (decades?) earlier. Whatever positive spillovers result may have a higher social return.

Think about Fervo, a now publicly traded company that was first funded by philanthropy. Or Alpha School, a seemingly scalable business that needed a ton of up-front investment. Or organizations like Stripe Press / Works in Progress, that are backstopped by a private co but have a business model.

I do believe in the value if philanthropy asking a 0% return of course (just look at my resume). But for-profit models keep the incentives of market discipline and can extend the impact of philanthropic dollars.

Is this just ESG all over again? I hope not. That was more like hand-wavy measures of the "impact" of existing businesses versus funding new businesses on a path to viability.

There are parts of this ecosystem already -- "social inpact investing", "patient capital", etc... -- but I think it would look different to have investors explicitly demand a positive but lower rate of return, and founders chasing inportant problems with viable but marginal business models.

What innovation could come from "near breakeven is good enough"?

Maybe nothing. But what is getting crowded out? If you thought it was a socially valuable venture at 1% real interest rates, isn't it still at 7%?

[Nan Ransohoff @nanransohoff]

New blog post: The third wave of American philanthropy

Hundreds of billions of dollars in new philanthropic capital will soon become liquid. The OpenAI Foundation holds 26% of OpenAI, worth about $220B at today’s valuation. Anthropic’s seven co-founders have pledged to give away 80% of their wealth and have instituted the most aggressive donor matching program for employees in tech history.

How much does this all add up to? And how meaningful is that in the context of philanthropy today?

I was doing some simple napkin math to wrap my head around the scale of what’s coming, and radicalized myself in the process. I had dramatically underappreciated the scale of the philanthropic capital that’s about to become available and the corresponding gap in talent and organizations that will be needed to make the most of it.

This piece aims to directionally sketch the scale of what’s coming, the gap in operational capacity needed to absorb it, and what we can do to fill it.

(Link to full post in reply)

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

https://t.co/GTT4gRDXhg

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Apply to RPI's 2026 writing fellowship by June 1st!

I need more to read, this program gets better every year, and you'll get a free ticket to the progress conference. We want to hear from you.

[Roots of Progress Institute @rootsofprogress]

Applications are open until June 1st for the 2025 Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive! Launch a blog and improve your progress-focused writing with expert guidance and an amazing community progress builders, writers and intellectuals.

You'll learn from a phenomenal advisor lineup including @tylercowen, @_brianpotter, @elidourado, @vpostrel, @_alice_evans, @kesvelt, @glukianoff, @akoustov, @Brendan_McCord, and Elle Griffin.

RPI fellows are now leading conversations on AI policy, transportation, agriculture, biotech, housing abundance, and more—with work appearing in major outlets like the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and the Atlantic.

What you'll get: Launch/re-launch a blog/Substack, develop consistent writing habits, improve your craft, build your audience, and connect with progress studies leaders and build community with engaged, thoughtful fellow writers.

During the 10-week program, you'll write and publish 4 essays with feedback from our developmental editor @MikeRiggs, the RPI team, and your fellow writers.

This year features two tracks, in addition to our general progress track: human flourishing & potential and security & resilience. We welcome fellows writing on ANY progress topic, but a handful of spots will be reserved for these tracks.

BONUS: Attend a 3-day in-person retreat in Pennsylvania and receive a free ticket to the invitation-only 2026 Progress Conference with ~400 authors, technologists, policy experts, academics, and nonprofit leaders. Meet your peers and your heroes!

This is for you if: You're passionate about progress studies and love writing. Maybe you want to explore a writing career, join a think tank, write to build community around a cause area, and of course take your existing blog to the next level.

Commitment: 10–15 hours weekly for 10 weeks (July 27–Oct 2). The weekend retreat is August 20–23. There is no cost to participate.

Applications close June 1st!

[Roots of Progress Institute @rootsofprogress]

Applications are open until June 1st for the 2025 Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive! Launch a blog and improve your progress-focused writing with expert guidance and an amazing community progress builders, writers and intellectuals.

You'll learn from a phenomenal advisor lineup including @tylercowen, @_brianpotter, @elidourado, @vpostrel, @_alice_evans, @kesvelt, @glukianoff, @akoustov, @Brendan_McCord, and Elle Griffin.

RPI fellows are now leading conversations on AI policy, transportation, agriculture, biotech, housing abundance, and more—with work appearing in major outlets like the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and the Atlantic.

What you'll get: Launch/re-launch a blog/Substack, develop consistent writing habits, improve your craft, build your audience, and connect with progress studies leaders and build community with engaged, thoughtful fellow writers.

During the 10-week program, you'll write and publish 4 essays with feedback from our developmental editor @MikeRiggs, the RPI team, and your fellow writers.

This year features two tracks, in addition to our general progress track: human flourishing & potential and security & resilience. We welcome fellows writing on ANY progress topic, but a handful of spots will be reserved for these tracks.

BONUS: Attend a 3-day in-person retreat in Pennsylvania and receive a free ticket to the invitation-only 2026 Progress Conference with ~400 authors, technologists, policy experts, academics, and nonprofit leaders. Meet your peers and your heroes!

This is for you if: You're passionate about progress studies and love writing. Maybe you want to explore a writing career, join a think tank, write to build community around a cause area, and of course take your existing blog to the next level.

Commitment: 10–15 hours weekly for 10 weeks (July 27–Oct 2). The weekend retreat is August 20–23. There is no cost to participate.

Applications close June 1st!

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

From @vpostrel in Works in Progress of course: https://t.co/cSFJG0oFRU

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

TIL my grandparents couldn't use disposable diapers for their first babies: National rollout of pampers was in 1966.

Oh and I bought a box from Costco this week at $0.25/diaper, so that's a 4x cheaper in real terms and ~7x cheaper relative to wages.

I guess I assumed this was maybe 50 years earlier, but nope. The engineering is complex.

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Parents today are second or third generation diaper users.

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

@pronounced_kyle Get a Thule or Bob running stroller!

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

Great podcast presenting important economic theory clearly. You could send this to your grandma!
Derek & Alex cover:
- Lump of labor fallacy: tech frees humans up to do new jobs
- Jevon's paradox: structurally lower prices often increase quantity demanded -> more jobs (demand is often elastic)
- O-ring model: many jobs need high certainty on all tasks; automating % of tasks doesn't automate the job
- Human privilege: handmade goods & services are a luxury good; you buy more not less as income increases

I would add:
- Liability: jobs are about delegating responsibility/blame, not just tasks. and the legal system needs liability somewhere
- Relative status seeking: humans care about their relative standard of living >> their absolute standard of living (for better & for worse). just look to academia to see competition, scarcity, and work created in an environment of normative abundance!
- New goods: there is so much more work to do. feed & educate everyone, explore the oceans, inhabit space, terraform moons! energy, intelligence, and materials too cheap to meter. there is a lot to do before an AK economy

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

New pod: THE SMARTEST CASE AGAINST THE AI JOBS APOCALYPSE

AI is the first technology that seems to automate the same cognitive sectors that absorbed work during previous waves of automation. For that reason, many people worry that it will destroy tens of millions of jobs imminently.

But after I review the evidence showing that AI is not clearly destroying work today—and might even be stimulating demand for certain tech jobs— I brought on the great @alexolegimas to talk about the best reasons to doubt the doomsday narrative.

We talk about all sorts of economic principles—lump of labor fallacy, income elasticity, Jevon's Paradox—but maybe his most interesting point is about the nature of desire and status.

Desire is insatiable, and technology will never solve for status. Even in a world where AI can automate many tasks, status might go up rather than down or flat. And status motivates a lot of economic activity. So even in a world where AGI is very good at 99% of existing tasks is still a world where people will want to send their money to things that are perceived as "scarce" and "status-enhancing." You can create a lot of jobs on this basis alone.

You could argue that this is how economic transformations have always worked. Our economy is a rough register of human desires. And in a world where artificial intelligence automates some tasks, it might not destroy work so much as it moves dollars and labor toward new desires in new sectors of the economy. The pet care economy wasn't really a thing in 1800. Now it's a >$100 billion business, made possible by the fact that a richer country moved dollars and workers from corn farms to bespoke poodle manicure spas.

It is easy to imagine that AI could automate many tasks and even some jobs. What's harder to imagine is that we'll be permanently stuck in an disequilibrium where people with disposable income aren't trying to satisfy their desires and burnish their status. And in a world where AI is abundant, the question we should be asking about the future of work is: What will be scarce? What will be kind of jobs will be produced as desire and status shift, once again?

https://t.co/UFBRn4sELO

[Ben Thomas @Ben_Thomas_o7]

@GaryWinslett Have you been through the new PDX yet?