JaviGS

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@taobanker https://t.co/bVOgMekihZ and many more from him on $KOS for other approach...

[Gabriel Castro, CFA @gabcasla]

$KOS I am very disappointed with the big banks. They seem reluctant to admit they were wrong and still rate it as a sell. Nordic brokers like Clarksons, Pareto, and Fearnleys, along with other mid-cap brokers such as Stifel and Jefferies, switched to a buy rating. If I have to choose the best, it's definitely Clarkson's with a target price of $5.2, very close to my own of $5. In contrast, major banks Goldman Sachs and BofA have a sell rating. They turned bearish late last year, when the stock was at lows, and continue to hold that view, with Goldman Sachs targeting $2.5 and BofA $1.5. Goldman Sachs predicts $300 million FCF annually over the next three years at a $75 Brent price, which at least justifies a hold. Meanwhile, BofA remains notably stubborn, forecasting lower production. He seems to deliberately ignore Jubilee, GTA 1+, and GoA's upcoming drilling prospects to justify his shift from a buy—position he kept through many poor years—to a sell in December, when the stock was at $1.

Kosmos announced strong results two weeks ago, particularly regarding costs. Additionally, their guidance indicates a reduced breakeven for the rest of the year. Furthermore, Kosmos will make the final TEN lease payment in the first quarter of 2027, after which they will own the FPSO, leading to even lower OPEX.

The company successfully lowered its debt to a more sustainable level, approximately 2x EBITDAX based on Q2's annualized figures. I anticipate FCF will increase significantly in 2H, strengthening the balance sheet and potentially leading to upgrades in both debt and equity ratings. Although I don't expect Kosmos to sell cargoes at the $108.5 per barrel price seen in Q2, it's important to consider that Kosmos was heavily hedged in the first half of the year, with $106 million burned on hedges in Q2 alone. While such strategies may look stupid in hindsight, many point to the supply glut, which forced Kosmos to hedge to protect its balance sheet. The hedges planned for 2027 are particularly compelling, with about one-third of production protected by a floor price of $67-$70 and a cap around $85-$90.

However, we won’t have to wait until 2027 to see much better realized prices. In the second half, only 25% of production is hedged at around $70, indicating a notable improvement from both better hedged prices and fewer hedges. This aligns well with 2H FCF, as Jubilee operates at high levels while costs and capex will decrease. I believe their 20% deleveraging goal will be surpassed and potentially increased, as it seems to assume a much lower Brent price outlook. I don’t blame them for being cautious and aiming to overperform, especially after the challenges of recent years.

Finally, Kosmos is positioning the company for growth. In Ghana, after successfully drilling the best well in over a decade thanks to seismic data, they plan to start a drilling campaign by mid-2027 that is likely to reactivate the TEN field. In GTA, Senegal and Mauritania are developing infrastructure to import gas from the GTA hub. This means that we could see a notable increase in production as soon as 2027, boosting profits without additional Opex or Capex from the partnership. Regarding GoA, the Tiberius farm-out provided some upfront cash and reduced future capex needs for 2027. This hub will produce about 10,000 barrels per day per well gross, with Kosmos holding a 33.3% stake. Production is expected to spike in the second half of 2028. It’s important to note that GoA has several high-potential prospects, and Kosmos has partnered with Shell for exploration. One key prospect to watch is Trailblazer, which has significant potential (~200 mmboe gross). Drilling is scheduled for 1Q 2027, and if successful, it could be tied back to Shell’s nearby Appomattox platform, with first oil in just 18 months after discovery.

With screen Brent at $94 and Dated Brent (the price KOS gets) a few dollars higher, Kosmos is now in a significantly stronger position than a few months ago. Although FCF has been reasonable, it is expected to increase substantially thanks to lower hedges and opex/capex. Additionally, despite having 2P reserves that could last 18 to 20 years, Kosmos is preparing for growth beginning in 2028.

It’s surprising that, despite bond premiums significantly compressing (with 2028 bonds trading at par and the secured above 106), equity remains depressed, indicating a high WACC. I believe this will change once Kosmos refinances the RCF and the 28, which is expected to happen in the next few months.

I remain LONG in both equity and bonds.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@Zedy78Zedy @bounceUk89 @baroninvestment #AET very detailed offshore organic growth strategy deployment. Huge onshore opportunity (Corcel plc (CRCL) can be a great advanced indicator of what is in KON 15 and KON 19).

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@LopezPeiro Muchísimo ánimo, Arturo!

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@RicksCEO Send Checo, Alonso and Carlos my regards!! 😜. Enjoy It!!

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@stonkmetal Some analysts substract factoring w/o recourse inflows from Op CF to reclasify it to Finan CF, reducing Free CF during present period. If they do so, they should include the former amount as Op CF (& FCF) in the following period. Many of them just seem to forget about it.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@21stCentValue @RicksCEO And I miss it. What a pity. Is the recording available? Thanks... Vamooossss Eric!!!! Greetings from Madrid!

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@21stCentValue Asset-liability duration matching//Loan To Deposit Ratio? (Interest rate Risk Banking Book Management?)//LCR-NSFR analysis in case of stress. Deeper dive needed to draw conclussions.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@ElCapiMomentum @KrevixD @FlavioMunozM Por si os aporta algo adicional al análisis, Mark Meldrum https://t.co/pAMH7bcdUk

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@HelarteI @HerediaLaso @emprendedor504 @alex_estebaranz En normativa española y en el documento de AECA sobre el estado de flujo de efectivo (no es de vinculante), te dan tb respuesta en el mismo sentido.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@HelarteI @HerediaLaso @emprendedor504 @alex_estebaranz El origen es un crédito comercial. Llevado al extremo, todas las ventas, incluso al contado debieran llevar tal ajuste pues se cobran una única vez. El origen del crédito proviene de su actividad, se adelante el cobro con un 3 o no y así se refleja en su cont. que cumple IAS 7.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@RicksCEO Vamooossss Miami!!!

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@itsmarkmoran Forget onlyfans, you should try with admireme 😜

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@manashuman @dzaveri1 @amazonIN @moefcc @PMOIndia https://t.co/rrQ9QOA9VZ (It could be an alternative).

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@themoatfreak @labolsadeferro @Quality__Value @alex_estebaranz Puntualización: el año pasado el guidance del ebitda ajustado partió del 14 % cuando estaban haciendo el 14,5 %...sin más...conservadores hasta el punto de no querer pillarse los dedos (no sé si puede ser traducido como poco ambiciosos, pero el entorno narrativo lo justifica).

[Héctor Mohedano @HMohedano_]

🔥 SORTEO 🔥

Para celebrar los 20.000 seguidores en Twitter, SORTEO 10 CURSOS COMPLETOS de PREPARACIÓN CFA NIVEL 1

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https://t.co/5tMLZukfIc

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@DivGro22 Muchísimas gracias por el tweet. super útil. Incluso la referencia a la herramienta. 🙏🙏

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@ElCapiMomentum Mucho ánimo Capi. Trata de mantener esos recuerdos siempre bien vivos. Mis más respetuosas condolencias. DEP.

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@NorthIronM @Dividenduck Buffett and See's Candies...good investment ;)

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@CipresMomentum Me encanta la cola en modo escobilla por la cara de la chica 😂😂

[JaviGS @The_Moat78]

@AbrilQuim https://t.co/Cl1qkyfOKA

[Gustavo (Mexican Investor) @InvestorMexican]

𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮 - 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗶ó𝗻 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹

Este es uno de mis sectores favoritos para invertir y lo considero indispensable para cualquier portafolio

✔️ Son empresas creciendo a ritmos de doble dígito, sin estar precisamente caras

Veamos algunos ejemplos: