Eli Draluk

Data stuff at Ring. Views my own

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@tleilax___ It’s not so much just AI as the risk of turning off your brain.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@DannyDayan5 I told everyone I was traveling too.

[Karthik Tadepalli @karthiktadepall]

Really nice report. Follow up: why has the fall in AI prices been so fast?

When you plot the price decline against cumulative R&D investment rather than time, you get the elasticity of price declines to R&D investment. By this margin, AI is not unusual – its price elasticity to R&D investment is squarely in the middle of Epoch's considered technologies.

So the AI price fall is historically unprecedented because we've dumped money into AI R&D at a historically unprecedented rate – and that R&D has paid off at a very average rate.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@Merridew__ That’s what we all thought in 2006/2008

[Neil Sethi NEW account @neilsethinew]

Goldman: We estimate a drag from hyperscaler depreciation expenses on S&P 500 earnings growth of 5pp in 2027, offsetting nearly half of the 11pp boost to earnings from capex spending.

By 2028, the drag from depreciation should offset the S&P 500 earnings uplift from continued capex spending.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@benryanwriter @FabricioNakata We give all of them lunch and breakfast

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@Merridew__ I’m also traveling internationally today (I was in India and Singapore for liberation day). We’re all gonna die.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@CKravitz17 how do we feel about Vandy?

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@tleilax___ There’s ummm not that much capability for multi front warfare for the Russians at this point

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@RealJimChanos They’re not paying 20-40M per MW that’s a few marginal contracts

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@erik_engquist The upside here is we need larger units for families. (Not advocating for terrible incentives)

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@CompleteSkeptic I even made you a logo

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@DavidAFrench Certainly Alito and Thomas are

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@Parmenides5BCE @phileeppos They do that all the time… about almost every missile attack…

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@buccocapital @DeepDishEnjoyer They definitely believe this. All the evidence is they do. They’re just wrong.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@Merridew__ Incredible news

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@MebFaber The trump accounts are a great deal for those that get the money and an awful deal to put any incremental dollars in (given tax treatment).

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@buccocapital This was the same argument for the soviets

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@kimmaicutler China famously games these tests. If you look at remotely comparable students we tend to outperform east Asia.

[Eli Draluk @edraluk]

@Merridew__ This is why we own dxyz and softy