The Rock

Investor/trader and great interest in finance, economy, politics, and technology

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@WillBiddy_ $intu is as well.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@shadowweeek @menholdon @ValueInvestShow @elonmusk If he says no then we will drop 5% on Monday as this market never know what is factored into $adbe valuation.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@sjb987654321 @jbulltard1 @yxinsights I guess some people ignore debt and only look at p/e and then go ahead and compare with companies with no net debt.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@alex__pitti I guess he doesn’t need to thanks to narrative that memory/flash prices will stay high forever.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@FindleysFinance How he came to $60B valuation at most. That is his bullish thesis. 😭

[Will Biddy @WillBiddy_]

Never forget when they sold $ADBE shares at 11x trailing earnings in 2026 before they became a massive ai tool distributor on top of their pre-existing software fortress

[JC @JulioS2045]

I think there is a middle ground.

$ADBE may not be the clean 20% compounder it used to be, but “AI destroys earnings” feels too binary.

The market is mostly focused on Figma/Canva/ARR decel, which is fair. But Adobe is also building new AI revenue layers: Firefly Foundry, IP-safe custom models, GenStudio, CX Enterprise Coworker, 3D digital twins, Acrobat AI, https://t.co/7vLHm5bLml AI workflows, and NVIDIA-powered creative/marketing agents.

Disney using Foundry for IP-safe Imagineering workflows is the key signal. That is not AI replacing Adobe. That is Adobe becoming the controlled AI layer for companies that cannot risk their IP in open models.

So the middle case is:

Legacy Creative grows slower, maybe low-to-mid single digits.

AI/Foundry/enterprise content workflows grow fast from a small base.

Buybacks shrink share count.

EPS compounds high single digits to low double digits.

Multiple stays lower than the old Adobe, but not “melting ice cube” low.

That is enough to work at the right price.

[RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ @RawBooty2]

$ADBE — This is now my largest position. I should probably do a proper write-up, but fuck it, I’m lazy and no one’s paying me. Here’s how I see it:

Elephant in the room: Yes, AI is taking some customers; but mostly at the low end. For simple, stupid jobs, AI is often “good enough.” We’ve all seen it. That’s real, but it’s a marginal negative.

For real creative work requires fine-grained control. You can’t just tell an AI to “put the line exactly here.” Language is simply too imprecise. Creative expression doesn’t translate well to verbal commands.

The focus needs to shift to high-end demand; which isn’t going away; it’s growing globally. Adobe remains the undisputed leader in this area.

What excites me most right now in graphics is 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) and 4DGS. In my opinion, this is the future of high-end VFX in film, virtual production, and gaming. Why i mention it, is because it’s extremely compute-heavy.

Here's the key: many of these new tools (3DGS, advanced AI filters, etc.) are compute-intensive. I suspect Adobe is shifting increasingly toward a metered compute/credit model which opens up whole new revenue streams.

Companies (big and small) will want to use this tech but won’t want to own the infrastructure themselves.

I’ve been playing with graphic design since the early 90s; i'm not a professional or an expert, but i know enough to see what's happening and I’m extremely bullish long term. Fundamentally, I just don’t see AI as a threat to serious creative tools. Instead i see it as a catalyst for new possibilities.

Bonus: AI is also helping train people on complex software and lowering the barrier for new creators and businesses.

bottom line: We’re in a messy transition; but it's one that ultimately favors professional creative tools.

As always this is not advice. Just my worthless opinion.

https://t.co/2OcI7MAykp

[kab60 @kab604]

They still hate $ADBE. They also still use it (one of them uses 3-4 different apps from Creative Cloud). My father also hated Adobe 30 years ago when he had to buy new licences (newspaper/magazine editor). Anecdata and all that, but my God this bullshit seems overhyped.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Jeezz. $ADBE spending the big bucks🧐🤣

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@scm0330 @alex__pitti How is it in terminal decline it’s ARR growth rate. It is not negative growth it’s just decreasing growth rate. And market is pricing it in at 10 PE and no debt.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@ariaradnia But free tier for $adbe is bad for the company but good for LLMs.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@ariaradnia Forgot $now

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@ariaradnia Must be one of the name I own $adbe or $intu

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

I understand there are risks with $ADBE. CEO and CFO exits, AI uncertainty, freemium software tiers...

But the price has baked in enough margin of safety that even if growth began to slow, investors could still see high returns.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@sjb987654321 @WillBiddy_ I like and own both name but much bigger bet with $adbe due to valuation discount. I think $intu might have bigger moat due to Quickbooks. I use TurboTax for taxes.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@BlacklionCTA @financialjuice Adobe let’s go.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@crossinrocks @alex__pitti Let’s say non enterprise customers 10M sign up and 1% upgrades that’s 100K revenue earning users that never would have come to the company.

[The Rock @rakoraja]

@crossinrocks @alex__pitti No one gives 💩 about avg revenue per user. Total revenue and profit that all matters and most of the negative is priced in already. More users will eventually will lead to higher growth long term as these or some of the users would have gone to competition.

[TheGhost @i9theghost5]

Given the fact that we are coming from a -28% move in just 9 trading days

And a -16% in a 48-hours window

I’d say we are seeing exhaustion and everyone who needed or was forced to sell, already did so

Clean slate

$ADBE