Random Cap

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[Paul Spacey ⚽️ @PaulSpacey]

https://t.co/x9E06LGrxP

[Random Cap @random1capital]

@markkaplan20 @LDLSkeptic Appreciate all your posts !!!

[Random Cap @random1capital]

@markkaplan20 @LDLSkeptic ❤️❤️❤️❤️

[Opulent Vocation @OpulentVocation]

Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | This Is The Biggest Bubble Since The Railroads

The current AI-driven market rally resembles one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history, comparable to the Nifty Fifty or dot-com era, but investors are unlikely to aggressively sell before two catalysts occur: a major OpenAI/SpaceX-style IPO cycle and a clear Fed policy tightening shock tied to rising CPI from tariffs and inflation.

•AI mega-caps now dominate market concentration, with the “AI bubble” larger than past railroad, Japan, and dot-com bubbles by some metrics.
•Bond yields are the main warning signal: the rise in long-term yields and global cost of capital seen as dangerous for risk assets, especially leveraged consumers, private equity, housing, and emerging markets.
•Several macro stress signals are flashing: weak Asian currencies (KRW, JPY, INR, IDR), widening high-yield spreads, EM outflows, and BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator hitting a contrarian “sell” level.
•Historically, speculative IPO waves (Alibaba, NTT, Visa, etc.) often marked medium-term market tops rather than immediate crashes.
•Current gains are very narrow (“wealth effect, not wage effect”), while equal-weight consumer stocks remain weak versus the S&P 500.
•Despite near-term bubble concerns, structurally bullish on emerging markets and commodities.
•Preferred post-bubble opportunities would be consumer stocks and smaller AI adopters/disruptors rather than dominant mega-cap AI platforms.
•Geopolitics, energy, AI competition with China, and inflation are increasingly interconnected themes shaping markets.

Zeitgeist quote: “Everyone is now convinced that equities are the best inflation hedge.”

Feedback from recent London trip, main soundbites:

•“we’re long and paranoid,”
•“wants/needs to de-escalate Iran, and stocks pop, yields drop on deal,”
•“if UK gilts find love, everything finds love,”
•“European electorate shifting decisively right, Farage in UK, Le Pen in France, and you watch the AfD in Germany will win Saxony-Anhalt in September, their first state election,”
•“the fear in bonds is nowhere near as strong as greed in equities,”
•“Warsh will be rhetorically hawkish but practically dovish over the summer,”
•“US actions in Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran, Greenland, Cuba should be viewed through single strategic lens competition with China in AI, which can only be won by securing access to critical resources.”

[Suzanne Kapner @SuzanneKapner]

Lululemon Athletica’s board was narrowing in on a resolution of its long-running spat with company founder Chip Wilson last week—and then things went sideways.  https://t.co/hd4vtPKRr5 via @WSJ

[Random Cap @random1capital]

@JimenaVillicana @SSPCMexico @ClaraBrugadaM Sigue la manifestación?

[BMNR Bullz @BMNRBullz]

💥 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Stock Market hits 7,400 for the first time in history.

Just days ago TOM LEE said 7,300 was the “aspirational target.”

Now the market has already blown past it and he’s calling for 7,700 or higher by year end.

“2027 could be one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime.”

So far, he’s nailing it.

[Suzanne Kapner @SuzanneKapner]

When Lululemon landed on former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill for the CEO job earlier last week, its board thought they had it in the bag. But the pick backfired spectacularly. https://t.co/IbU0uNgz9l via @WSJ

[Mark Gadala-Maria @markgadala]

This is so epic.

Someone create a full 15 minute short film about the Ottoman empire war in Europe.

This is some of the best AI film making I have seen so far.

Credit: History Reforged on YT

[José Díaz Briseño @diazbriseno]

Revelaciones del WSJ:

-Sheinbaum está exhausta, drenada; duerme 4 hrs cada día
-Sheinbaum está cada vez más indecisa
-Sheinbaum se enojó por fotos de capos expulsados a EU en cadenas
-Sheinbaum se queja mucho de que su equipo ejecuta mal sus ordenes

👇
https://t.co/KWCM7Yie3G

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

Now everyone on FinX had their collective $LULU meltdown, let's talk about what happens next. Chip Wilson now up to bat and looking to swing for the fences. Wait a minute - he's calling his shot! Pointing directly at Chairwomen Marti Morfitt. We haven't seen anything like this since Babe Ruth!

It is always hard to effect change through a proxy fight without support from ISS or Glass Lewis. One way to get that support is to have the stock tank 10%+ on a major incumbent Board decision. There is a lot of other nuance here that supports Chip, such as the fact that he founded the firm to begin with. Not often you see an entrenched Board (who own practically no stock) fight a founder (who still owns a lot of stock), particularly after that Board has made numerous mistakes (such as see through pant episode number three this year).

Chip was very clear that he wanted Board change BEFORE making a new CEO decision. Let's just put Heidi O'Neill aside for a minute. Chip can like her or not, but even if he likes her I highly doubt he will ignore the process that occurred to put her in place. I don't know how any large institutional shareholder can support the process this incumbent Board took in this matter, especially after the market voted today and is outright telling everyone this was a disaster.

Does that mean if he ultimately wins the proxy battle the new board will replace Heidi? I dunno. Unlike most here I am not sold that she is the worst choice - that would have likely been either elevating Meghan (CFO) to the CEO role or Marti herself stepping down into it. I just chatted with a former Lululemon CEO and they were a lot more constructive about Heidi than most seem to be.

But the simple fact here is that this Board needs to go and we should all support Chip at this point in his quest to make that happen.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record

Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P 500 has made a new all‑time high within 11 trading days of a 5–10% drawdown, and history around comparable V‑shaped rebounds suggests this kind of steep recovery is a continuation signal, not an exhaustion signal: in past steep V‑shapes, the “vertical” phase typically overshoots the old high and delivers roughly a 20–30% gain from the low over the first ~100 trading days, implying that if the March 22, 2026 low was near 6,300, the historical playbook points to a 100‑day S&P range of roughly 7,560–8,190 (mid‑case ~7,875), followed by positive but more trend‑like returns over the subsequent 6–12 months rather than an imminent bear market.

The upshot, you’re not bullish enough.

Have a nice day.

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

The 10-day A/D line has quickly gone from oversold to overbought:

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Lost decades are more common than you think...

https://t.co/3SSBxvOHb8

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

It is rare to see a 7-day win streak that also gains >7%.

In fact, up 10% three months later would say to see an acceleration higher here could be the play.

The past 30 years it only happened 3 other times and the worst stocks did 6 months later was nearly a 19% gain.

[Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) @TomLeeTracker]

TOM LEE: 3 REASONS THE BOTTOM IS IN

- Stocks bottom within the first 10% of a war, true across 8 conflicts in 125 years
- End of March: oil up, S&P still rose 5%, inverse correlation broke
- VIX back below 20 for the first time since the war started

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

What do emerging markets, transports, Bitcoin, and the Mag 7 have in common?

All four might feel different, but all four are at potential major long-term support.

If you are bullish, you want these levels to hold.

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"The recent 5% mild pullback took a very long 35 trading days, which would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market"

@RyanDetrick

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Many think we are headed straight for a bear market. I think we are much closer to the lows.

I discuss it in our latest @CarsonResearch blog.

https://t.co/rudL8wie5g

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Could the S&P 500 go down 20%?

Anything is possible, but looking at the other 11 bear markets since the S&P 500 became 500 stocks shows that they usually start with a quick drop from ATHs.

In fact, down 5% in only 14.5 days on avg those times.

The recent 5% mild pullback took a very long 35 trading days, which would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market.

Shoutout to the OG @StovallCFRA for pointing this out today.