Here is my AI investing guide.
Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows:
1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers get more pushback, energized land can explode in value. Very bullish here.
I’ve stepped into this layer very aggressively. My partner @anitavlallian and I have acquired almost 6GW coming online in a ramp from today thru 2029 of grid power and behind the meter.
2. Silicon - I helped get @GroqInc off the ground in 2015 and we licensed it to @nvidia for $20B Dec2025. I won’t invest or incubate anything in this layer now. The perf demands of the chips are too high, manufacturing precision is too complex and supply chain influence to get adjacent components like memory isn’t possible for a startup anymore. Lots of capital will be wasted here chasing Groq and Cerebras’ success. Note that both startups made sense a decade ago when these constraints were much more modest.
3. Clouds - Clouds are very very lucrative but very hard to build and very expensive and technically complicated to maintain. And as alignment becomes a more important issue, I expect the clouds will be asked to build robust KYC and attest to it. This makes the risk:reward ratio skewed. I don’t want to be responsible when the USG says a cloud allowed a bad actor to do something bad because of poor KYC.
4. Models are complicated. The big open question is how much of the revenue being generated by them today is because of tokenmaxxing and poor model behavior. If it’s a lot, then the annualized revenues will diminish meaningfully even as token consumption inflects upwards. This is the big economic question at this layer.
5. Harnesses are where the action is and why I started @8090solutions two years ago. In a nutshell, the harness helps enterprises owns their proprietary context (what Alex Karp calls their ‘alpha’). This is an enterprise’s data, workflows, evals, and business rules. A harness that gives this to an enterprise is what creates very low model-agnostic switching costs, which further reinforces my views of #4 above.
6. Applications will be another long term winner along with harnesses. This is where the differentiation between “off the shelf” and “custom time and materials” melts away. Every company, with the right harness, can now imbue their alpha into the software that runs their company. I expect this to mean that “off the shelf” is largely replaced with custom software creating a huge opportunity to write these solutions for companies. Build once and sell repeatedly is a laggard GTM motion for a SaaS world that isn’t needed here. Think custom by design, alpha embedded, proprietary by nature.
Fin.
Good luck to all the players!
@elonmusk please make @X into a podcast player. It’s extremely difficult to listen to long form audio and you have the best educational videos which I like to listen to like podcast.
But they keep getting stopped and are hard to play. They also easily get lost.
You can disrupt podcasting.
@jack The challenge is that slack is beloved. You’re targeting an amazing product that will likely roll out agents in a meaningful way. It’s hard to switch becaue it’s so good at such a great price.
Oftentimes, the simplest ideas win.
Uber: one click, a car shows up.
Airbnb: stay in someone's home while they're away.
Robinhood: zero commission stock trading.
GEICO: skip the agent, go direct.
Netflix (v1): DVDs by mail, no late fees.
Zoom: click a link, you're in the meeting.
Shopify: an online storefront, without a developer.
Dropbox: a folder that's on every device.
And for Shepherd: adopt technology on your job sites, pay less premium.
It's a simple promise to customers that helps these ideas win.
@sweetgreen your team handles order reciepts with their gloves. The same the make the food.
You can see the ink come off the recipes and they continue making order.
You should modify your process so receipts aren’t handled.
@foundmyfitness
Do bad boys move in silence?
Hannibal Barca’s greatest feat wasn’t winning battles.
It was making an entire army disappear.
In the dead of winter, he moved:
• 50,000 infantry
• 9,000 cavalry
• 37 war elephants
Across the Alps.
The cost was brutal.
20,000 men died.
But when Rome looked for him, he wasn’t there.
He had vanished.
Then he appeared behind Rome’s defenses, at the doorstep of the greatest power on earth.
No one was ready.
For 15 years, he terrorized Rome.
No general before or after came closer to destroying the Roman Republic.
Centuries later, John D. Rockefeller did something similar.
The most powerful man in oil was not a loud personality.
He was a quiet bookkeeper.
He avoided the press.
He didn’t announce his moves.
He accumulated.
Deal by deal.
Company by company.
While competitors watched the market, Rockefeller was quietly buying the foundation beneath it.
By the time the industry understood what happened, it was too late.
Today everyone talks about “building in public.”
And sometimes it works.
A founder shares their journey, attracts talent, investors, customers.
But there is a hidden cost:
Attention creates targets.
Public strategy creates competitors.
Noise can replace execution.
The question isn’t:
Should you build in public or private?
The question is:
What game are you playing?
If you are an underdog entering a crowded market, attention may be your greatest weapon.
If you are winning a valuable market with a defensible position, silence may be your advantage.
The mistake is broadcasting your strategy before you have won.
I once watched a founder dominate a new category.
Instead of quietly expanding, they loudly announced how great their company was.
They attracted attention.
Including mine.
I looked at the market and thought:
“Interesting. If this is such a great business, I should compete.”
So I did.
And I caught up.
Their mistake wasn’t confidence.
Their mistake was revealing their position before they had built an unbeatable moat.
The greatest strategists understand this:
Sometimes the loudest move is the weakest move.
Sometimes the most powerful thing you can do is disappear.
Build quietly.
Let results make the announcement.
@KennyCarmody Bad take. These are going to gift humanity life extension. Everyone I know that went on has seen success in their lives. Not just in weight loss. That’s just the start of the life change. One of the most impactful drugs of all time.
Listening to the @friedberg on All In and I want to shake my head with alignment but I think the mark is missed.
For people like him and I capitalism is a path to economic prosperity. Anyone can do it.
But anyone can also hit the gym and get fit but few do. And no matter how much I push my dad to workout he won’t. So the idea of the gym is great but the reality is just not that.
For 90% of the country the reality of capitalism is a nice to have ideal that they just won’t ever capitalize on.
That means the few who do will just continue to rep the benefits. So the outcome is an oligarchy.
The question is whether the oligarchy should be the entrepreneurs who are willing to do the work or the bureaucrats who want to meter the work and parse out dividends for votes.
It’s a hard question. Why would the populace not reep benefits. If we truly believe in a democracy then they should vote to capture part of the value creation.
Because either they vote the bureaucrats who promise to help them or let the capitalist win who don’t.
So we may erode capitalism but this may not be bad for the general population because their alternative is not much better.
This calculus changes if the capitalist oligarchs systematically contribute to the populace but that sounds like volunteered taxes anyways.
Or perhaps the best way is for governments to take a percent of the large cap companies which is a good middle ground.
turbopuffer crossed $100M run-rate in March. 19mo after $1M. Profitable & <$1M raised.
Cursor・Anthropic・Notion・Cognition・Harvey・Bridgewater・Ramp・Linear・Legora・Superhuman・Atlassian・Granola
We’d be nowhere without them. We work like hell to exceed their expectations.
Apple can leapfrog consumer AI and take all the market by putting inference on device.
This is technically possible, just a matter of time, most consumer cases it will work for