barknical analysis

equities & crypto trading journal, no deleted tweets

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Looking at long term signal cycles since 2009, should be cautious stocks starting June/July, and be flat/short Sept-spring 26

Things that could change (likely extend out) timing:

China tariffs/deal/stim
Russia/Ukraine resolution
ME oil related stuff
Trump related moves
Swans

[BOOM X @CryptoBoomNews]

Crypto bros rolling into 2026

[Shane Parrish @shaneparrish]

The storm doesn’t warn you. “Hetty’s investments were not always known: she purchased property under fictitious names, bought stocks under other identities, and was praised by shrewd observers for how closely she held her positions.” She moved in silence.

[barknical analysis @barknically]

This is (hopefully) peak sports in the US. I always suspected sports were overrated. "But but teamwork, but grit". Lol. Like scientists, engineers, researchers don't know teamwork and grit. Sports has been the primary driver of American kids' speedrun towards idiocracy

[Ryan Whitney @ryanwhitney6]

Dont know if I can think of a time an athlete at the top of his sport has been this open and honest about their craft

[James Seyffart @JSeyff]

Few

[Nostalgia @NostalgiaFolder]

Windows XP backgrounds (2001)

[Jay @Jay10080106]

Thanks @iancassel
It is a beautiful newsletter. Loved it.
https://t.co/ZUyIOlMty0

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

All human behavior makes sense, given enough information about someone.

[barknical analysis @barknically]

A classic

[Rob Henderson @robkhenderson]

"people with lots of positive attributes can afford to be modest because odds are at least one of their good traits will be uncovered. People with only one particular strength, though, will be eager to show it, because it's all they have." https://t.co/AlIXypOIgl

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Take out lawyers and journalists and you have ... The Asian tigers

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

This is the best one-paragraph explanation for what's gone wrong with our institutions:

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@safetyth1rd But fr tho, a common logical fallacy is that the made (be it ppl, disease, natural disaster, random shit) reflects on the *existence* of the maker.

Just bc youth pastors said so, doesn't mean his maker agrees with him. Esp if the youth pastor was given free will by maker

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@safetyth1rd Other youth pastors be like:

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Extreme quality substack

[Packy McCormick @packyM]

Watch our conversation:

https://t.co/vzgOUQGhdu

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@junjongcharlie @elonmusk @DavidSacks @chamath @Jason Friedberg is the only bestie who has tons of upvotes on comments yelling how science corner is the best thing since sliced bread. Any comments pointing this out on the yt vid is deleted. Very sus

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@MBungeMeyer @chamath @friedberg Friedberg is the only bestie who has tons of upvotes on comments yelling how science corner is the best thing since sliced bread. Any comments pointing this out on the yt vid is deleted. Very sus

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@RyanLawlessBand @AutismCapital @theallinpod @friedberg Friedberg is the only bestie who has tons of upvotes on comments yelling how science corner is the best thing since sliced bread. Any comments pointing this out on the yt vid is deleted. Very sus

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@samsaraa_ @0xKNL__ Friedberg is the only bestie who has tons of upvotes on comments yelling how science corner is the best thing since sliced bread. Any comments pointing this out on the yt vid is deleted. Very sus

[barknical analysis @barknically]

@radahn0303 @theallinpod @andrewrsorkin @Jason @friedberg Friedberg is the only bestie who has tons of upvotes on comments yelling how science corner is the best thing since sliced bread. Any comments pointing this out on the yt vid is deleted. Very sus

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Adding minimum 3 months to all dates here due to tariffs getting pushed out 90 days. Charts are aligned as well

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Looking at long term signal cycles since 2009, should be cautious stocks starting June/July, and be flat/short Sept-spring 26

Things that could change (likely extend out) timing:

China tariffs/deal/stim
Russia/Ukraine resolution
ME oil related stuff
Trump related moves
Swans

[barknical analysis @barknically]

Which means crypto tops before the summer.

Base case:
Mar/Apr BTC top with rolling tops in various alts in May/June as BTC starts heading lower and bottoms late summer. Then blowoff in the fall/winter (maybe even Q1 26 if above timing gets extended), and then yrlong bear mkt

[Mark Brooks @markbrooks]

Working hard comes before working smart. Until you’ve done the hard work, your attempts to work smart will miss the details, purpose, and essence of the product of hard work. An education from dirty hands is what makes a smarter worker.